The stock market’s quick recovery from last month’s tariff-induced nosedive has many searching for lessons in how they might navigate the months ahead. If you felt at all uneasy about your investments during the April dip, now may be a good time to course correct with the S&P 500 roughly flat on the year. That was main message from financial advisers and analysts I called this week to discuss their biggest lessons from the selloff and what moves people should make for the year ahead. Below is the best of what they told me. The certainty mirage Sure, we’re getting a lot of noise from Washington about trade deals. Markets are welcoming this, but don’t get ahead of yourself, said Julia Hermann, global market strategist at New York Life Investments. “We need to move from that feeling of relief to focusing on the reality, which is that not a lot has changed,” she said. Even with cuts from the 145% rate on China, tariffs are set to remain higher than they were before April. In-depth agreements between countries have yet to come about. And as Hermann points out, there is still a lot of economic uncertainty ahead, with tax policy, the federal budget, immigration and deregulation still up in the air. For the year ahead: A lot of financial professionals will tell you “tune out the noise” in turbulent times. That’s wise, but Hermann made a point that I found even more helpful: Tune out the noise by anchoring some of your investments to bigger themes you have conviction in that will hold long term. For her, that’s digital infrastructure. “Regardless of current policy, regardless of the near-term economic cycle, we see a lot of reasons that digital infrastructure supporting artificial intelligence and the building out of domestic chip hardware capacity will be a very long-term theme,” she said. Missed buying opportunities Of course, hindsight is 2020, but as John Boyd of MDRN Wealth said: People who stopped investing regularly during the dip missed a major opportunity to buy quality stocks on the cheap. It’s one lesson that can be hard to act on when there is a lot of negativity. But someone brave enough to have bought Nvidia on April 4th was able to lock in a steep discount. That the stock is now up more than 40% from that low. For the year ahead: These quick recoveries are a good reminder of the importance of dollar-cost averaging and staying the course, said Boyd. Still, the opposite can be true for people entering the later stages of their investing life. “If you are near retirement and 100% in stocks, and seeing your retirement drop nearly 20% was a wake-up call for you, now is probably a good time to reduce risk,” he said. Political problems Another tip to keep in mind, is to watch how your political views interact with your portfolio. That was the message I got from Kyle Harper of Harper Financial Planning. A former client of his with very strong views moved everything into cash in a $1 million portfolio on the recent tariff news. That may have felt good in the moment, but now it has meant they locked in a $200,000 loss and missed the entire recovery. For the year ahead: “Statements and tweets could lead to erratic moves in the markets, but, as of now, there are no structural problems in the economy and the tariff debacle was an unforced error that is easily reversible,” Svetlin Krastev of Black Sea Gold Advisors told me. He also had a suggestion for whom to listen to in the administration and whom to tune out. Treasury Secretary “Scott Bessent is the adult in the room,” said Krastev. “I would listen more to him than anyone else from the administration.” I’ll end with a next move, of sorts, that the market decline and reversal of the past six weeks called to mind for Robert Stromberg of Mountain River Financial: “Hurry up and do nothing.” For a lot of people — that may be the best call. — Charlie Wells P.S. Send questions about your own financial dilemmas to bbgwealth@bloomberg.net. We may get expert answers for you, and feature your question and the answer in an upcoming newsletter. Walmart delivered another quarter of solid sales and earnings growth. But the world’s largest retailer cautioned that tariffs and increasing economic turbulence mean even the world’s largest retailer expects to begin raising some prices this month. Prices paid to US producers unexpectedly declined in April. The dip was the most in five years, largely reflecting a slump in margins, suggesting companies are absorbing some of the hit from higher tariffs. The 0.5% decrease in the producer price index followed no change in March, Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed Thursday. The biggest gainers and losers on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index through close of trading Wednesday: Elon Musk was the biggest gainer in dollar terms. The chief executive of Tesla gained $51.1 billion, bringing his net worth up to $379.5 billion. Shares in the world’s most valuable carmaker have surged on the back of a lighter tariff outlook. Warren Buffett lost the most in dollar terms. The chairman and largest shareholder of Berkshire Hathaway clocked a $4.9 billion loss, taking his net worth to $157.3 billion. Shares in Berkshire are down in the wake of Buffett’s announcement that he will step down at year-end after six decades atop the conglomerate. Tallest NYC Tower to Lease Its Highest Floors for the First Time Photographer: Yuki Iwamura/Bloomberg Some 1,100 feet in the air, almost as high as you can go anywhere in New York City, One World Trade Center is leasing office space for the first time — a striking milestone in Lower Manhattan’s long recovery. Ten years after the skyscraper opened, the 89th and 90th floors are now available to the highest bidder searching for square footage in New York’s increasingly crowded commercial real estate market. Read the full story here. Toronto Home Sellers Are Slashing Prices, Offering Big Discounts Photographer: Chloe Ellingson/Bloomberg Homebuyers are starting to find deals in what’s shaping up to be one of the toughest spring seasons for the Toronto housing market in more than a decade. A four-bedroom property near Toronto’s scenic Riverdale Park sold for nearly C$100,000 ($71,670) less than the asking price. A semi-detached home in the Trinity Bellwoods neighborhood went for almost C$50,000 less than the listing. Near the edge of Lake Ontario, a buyer snagged a duplex for nearly C$60,000 less. And such price cuts have become the norm. In April, 66% of homes sold in Toronto went for less than the listing price, the highest percentage for that month since 2013, according to data compiled by real estate agent Robert Marsiglio of online brokerage Valery.ca. And homes were sold at 98% of the list price on average, the biggest discount for an April since the pandemic, the data show. It all means buyers are in their best position in decades. This week we’re looking to speak to people who have college degrees but are working in jobs that don’t require them. Some of our best journalism at Bloomberg Wealth comes from your own stories and we want to hear from you, your friends or clients. Please email bbgwealth@bloomberg.net if you’d like to get in touch. |