|
Thom Tillis’s retirement is an ominous sign for the GOP
Trump's big bad bill is already damaging the party.
|
| |||||||||||||||
 |
🗣️ Paid subscribers make Public Notice possible. If you appreciate our fiercely independent coverage of American politics, please support us. 👇
North Carolina Republican Sen. Thom Tillis announced yesterday he will not run for reelection next year, meaning the GOP’s hold on a key seat in a purple state is increasingly tenuous.
Tillis’s exit from the race appears to be directly related to his inability to navigate the politics of the ongoing GOP reconciliation bill process. As such, it’s the first warning sign that Republicans’ massive cuts to Medicaid and social programs could lead not just to widespread death and misery for their constituents, but also to electoral disaster for the party.
Ugly numbers
Tillis’s retirement came after the first Senate procedural vote on Trump’s so-called “Big Beautiful Bill.” The tax and spending bill extends the 2017 tax cuts for the wealthy, adds even more tax cuts for the wealthy, and spends a massive $168 billion on Trump’s border wall and ICE detention. It (partially) offsets that with a horrific $1.1. trillion in Medicaid cuts, and an additional $185 billion in cuts to federal food assistance programs. And even so, it adds $2.8 trillion to the deficit.
The social safety net cuts will be devastating. Analysts believe that 13 million people will lose insurance coverage. Horrifically, the bill is expected to result in more than 16,600 excess deaths every year. The cuts are expected to lead to massive closures of hospitals, especially in the very rural areas that disproportionately voted for Donald Trump and his ghoulish Republican Congress.
 |
|
Most people would prefer not to lose their healthcare; they are also adverse to watching their loved ones die preventable deaths. And they especially dislike enduring pain and suffering so that there’s more money to line the already stuffed pockets of the likes of Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk.
Polls reflect the fact that this bill is a debacle. Democrats hate the bill; when its provisions are explained fully, they oppose it 91 percent to 6 percent. Independents don’t like it either; 80 percent oppose it to 8 percent who support it. But stunningly, even Republicans dislike the massive giveaway to the rich, and oppose the bill 61 percent to 23 percent.
Tillis looked at those numbers and blanched. He’s facing a very difficult fight in North Carolina, where former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is expected to be a strong opponent. Trump won North Carolina in 2024 by about three points; Democrats are currently overperforming in special elections by about 13 points.
You don’t need to be a mathematical genius to figure out what those numbers portend for 2026 — nor do you need to be a genius to see that a horrifically unpopular tax and spending bill which robs people of their healthcare and hospitals is likely to make things worse. North Carolina, specifically, is expected to lose $40 billion in Medicaid funding from the federal government if the cuts go through.
Tillis assessed the damage and concluded that he did not want this bill to pass — or at the least, that he did not want to be associated with it.
“This will be devastating to my state,” Tillis is reported to have told Senate Majority Leader John Thune. He announced on Saturday that he would not vote for the bill to proceed, and would oppose it on final passage.
A note from Aaron: Enjoying this article from Noah? Then please sign up to support our work. Paid subscribers keep PN free for everyone 👇