Monday, June 30, 2025

8% GDP growth?

• In today’s CEO Daily: Diane Brady talks to economist Nouriel Roubini, Carlyle’s David Rubenstein, and Kraken’s Arjun Sethi.
• The big story: Tariff deadline looms.
• The markets: Mixed.
• Analyst notes from UBS on U.S. fiscal stability, Goldman Sachs on global markets, and Pantheon Macroeconomics on consumer spending.
• Plus: All the news and watercooler chat from Fortune.

Good morning, I’m just back from the Aspen Ideas Festival, where I had an opportunity to speak with many thought-provoking leaders about how they’re navigating this climate. I’ll share some of those insights later this week. For today, I want to highlight a conversation I had with noted economist Nouriel Roubini; Carlyle Group co-founder and co-chair David Rubenstein; and Arjun Sethi, co-CEO of the crypto exchange Kraken. The topic: What wealth will look like tomorrow.

Roubini (known as Dr. Doom for predicting the financial crisis), has more recently become Dr. Boom for his view that a tech-driven renaissance for the U.S. economy will ultimately lead to 8% GDP growth. “I’m a contrarian,” he said, noting that technological drivers of innovation working in America’s favor right may also create job losses that may necessitate a universal basic income.

Rubenstein talked about this country’s mounting debt and the strength of the dollar, while being bullish on the European defense sector and the longevity economy. “In the future, we’re not going to measure people’s wealth by how much money they have.” Rather, he said, wealth will be measured by the length and health of one’s life. “In 10 or 20 years, we will be able to tell you how long you’re likely to live,” he said.

Sethi talked about the democratization of access to capital and trading through crypto and the continued challenge of regulation in building products and getting things done. “If you were to go to China and build a robot, it would take less than six months. Whereas it could take two years in the U.S.,” said Sethi, who has the number of seconds in a day tattooed on his forearm. “I am paying our lawyers more than anyone else.” You can watch our full conversation here.

More news below.

Contact CEO Daily via Diane Brady at diane.brady@fortune.com

Top news

10 days to go until tariffs resume

Agreements with about dozen countries are expected to be in place before the July 9 deadline. But most of them are bare-bones agreements that will requires future negotiation. The U.S. will send countries that have not reached a deal a letter telling them what the U.S.’s terms are. Trump said tariff levels would be 25% or more.

Canada ends digital tax following Trump threat

The 3% sales tax had targeted U.S. tech companies. Trump had terminated talks with Canada on Friday and on Sunday said they would not resume “until such time as they drop certain taxes, yeah,” he said on Fox News. “People don’t realize, Canada is very nasty to deal with.”

Tax cuts and tariffs

The Senate advanced President Donald Trump’s plan for tax breaks and spending cuts over the weekend, with Trump pushing for lawmakers to finish the bill by July 4. In other deadline news, Trump said he would rather send letters to countries regarding their impending tariffs rates than extend the pause past July 9.

Trump’s big beautiful bill could add $2.8 trillion in debt

That’s according to a new estimate by the Congressional Budget Office. The White House claims it will reduce deficits.

Trump renews his attacks on Powell

The president again insulted the Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve for keeping interest rates at 4.25%. Calling Jerome Powell a "stupid person" and a "bad person" on Fox News on Sunday, Trump said, "We should be at 1% or 2%."

$1 billion in Nvidia insider sales

Over the last 12 months, top executives at the chipmaker have sold off hundreds of millions in pre-planned stock sales, the FT reports. $500 million in sales took place this month alone. CEO Jensen Huang sold stock last week for the first time since September.

Happy birthday to you, Elon

A Tesla Model Y drove itself from a factory in Austin to its new owner, who was waiting 30 minutes away. This “fully autonomous delivery,” as Tesla CEO Elon Musk shared, was a first for the car company—and the milestone was an early birthday present for Musk, who turned 54 on Saturday.

Mamdani’s stance on billionaires

In an interview with NBC, New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani shared that he is anti-billionaire, as “it is so much money in a moment of such inequality.” Mamdani, a self-described democratic socialist, went on to say: “I look forward to work with everyone, including billionaires, to make a city that is fairer for all of them.”

From the analysts

• UBS on U.S. fiscal stability: “The US Senate is trying to pass a budget. Markets expect this will keep the US fiscal position on an unsustainable path (ideas of deficit reduction generally rest on some very heroic assumptions about economic growth and tax revenue). As US debt levels grow, it is worth remembering that private sector wealth is at a record high. The US government may, in time, seek to mobilize that wealth to finance the growing deficit,” per Paul Donovan.
• Goldman Sachs on global markets: “Underlying US inflation has been lower than expected; trade uncertainty measures have fallen further; fragility at the long end of global bond markets has been contained so far; and the impact of tariffs on growth and inflation has not yet validated the worst fears,” per Kamakshya Trivedi and Dominic Wilson.
• Pantheon Macroeconomics on consumer spending: “The 0.3% fall in consumers’ real spending in May and big downward revisions to earlier months mean spending likely rose at an annualized pace of only about 1½% in the first half this year, well below last year’s 3% average. Moreover, the lack of momentum recently, looming tariff-driven price hikes, and an imminent deterioration in the labor market all suggest spending will slow further in Q3,” per Samuel Tombs and Oliver Allen.