EMISSIONS TARGETS DEFERRED: New York’s energy analysts don’t see a way for the state to reach the climate law’s 2030 emissions target until at least 2036. It’s been clear the 40 percent reduction from 1990 levels wasn’t likely by the 2030 target, especially with delays in the renewables buildout and Gov. Kathy Hochul delaying cap-and-invest regulations. But this new analysis, compiled for the state energy planning board, provides more clarity about the expected pace of reductions in the coming years.
The analysis also contemplates different scenarios — a pathway to achieve the net zero target in the climate law along with more moderate reductions. NYSERDA President and CEO Doreen Harris said that while the state’s climate scoping plan process took a “top down” approach to identify ways to achieve those cuts, the energy planning process is “bottom up.”
“It does balance other objectives — we’re looking at affordability, reliability, economic development, as foundational outcomes that we seek to achieve and therefore we’re layering that on top of the momentum that we have to develop pathways that can be planned against to meet the forecasted energy needs in 15 years and beyond,” Harris said. Disruptions from the pandemic, inflation and supply chain issues in addition to continued federal uncertainty from tariffs and changing policies present challenges to the state’s efforts, Harris said.
Meeting the state’s energy needs over the next 15 years will require continued reliance on fossil fuels, Harris acknowledged. She also said there may be a need to repower fossil fuel power plants. “We have an anticipated need to expand our electricity system to power economic growth and EVs and heat pumps,” Harris said. “The plan is talking about wind, solar, energy storage and also repowering aging combustion power plants as a way to move from here to there, as well as the contribution … of emissions free resources that are dispatchable like advanced nuclear.”
Hochul’s administration denied permits for two gas permit plants in 2021, rejecting arguments from developers at the time that they were needed for reliability and would reduce overall emissions. Harris said the statutorily-required plan would help guide future state energy decisions. “This would mean that we would have to take up again, as a state, what contributions our fossil fleet would need and ultimately how we would consider repowering as part of that,” she said.
This newfound openness toward fossil fuels aligns with Hochul’s focus on affordability and reliability to meet the state’s energy needs. The governor has even cracked the door to new gas pipelines as a potential way to lower energy costs. She’s been frequently raising concerns about the costs of implementing the state’s climate law, punting on her own major cap-and-trade style program earlier this year. “All major fuels used today in New York will continue to contribute … so we need to continue to invest in all fuel systems, particularly to meet peak day needs,” Harris said.
The state energy planning board expects to approve a draft state energy plan later this summer. That will be subject to public comment. Harris expects additional updates before the plan is finalized, especially since federal assumptions will likely need to be updated. — Marie J. French
NJ AGAIN THREATENS PJM EXIT — New Jersey Democrats are stepping up their threats to leave PJM.
A pair of Democrats in the Assembly and Senate, both in leadership positions, introduced legislation Thursday to require the Board of Public Utilities to study leaving the 13-state regional grid that sends the Garden State much of its electricity.
The bill directs the BPU to “work collaboratively with neighboring states to research and recommend collective action.”
The bill’s sponsors sent mixed messages about whether they see such an exit happening.
Assemblymember Robert Karabinchak, who chairs the State and Local Government Committee, wants to rush the legislation, A5902, to the floor for a vote as soon as Monday so the governor can sign it. But he also announced the bill at a press conference in Trenton as one to “possibly remove ourselves from the PJM grid.”
Both Karabinchak and the Senate sponsor, Sen. Bob Smith, portrayed the bill as one that creates leverage over the Pennsylvania-based grid and energy market operator.
“PJM’s got to do a lot of reform to keep us,” said Smith, who chairs the Senate’s energy committee.
Those reforms include changing its complex market rules and acting faster to allow clean energy projects to plug into the grid by moving them through a queue that can take years for project developers to navigate.
PJM called some of the lawmakers’ arguments a “red herring" and pointed out how much the state relies on its grid.
“This week, New Jersey has been importing approximately 8,000 MWs during peak hours,” PJM said in a statement. “There are now 1,797 MWs in the transition queue for New Jersey, which may or may not ultimately build out. New Jersey also has 1,474 MWs through the interconnection process that have nothing left to do with PJM. Even if you get both of these categories to build in full, New Jersey is still very short of creating a balanced generation portfolio.”
Because New Jersey is an importer of power, despite all of Gov. Phil Murphy’s lofty clean energy goals, the state relies on gas- and coal-burning power plants from around the region to keep its lights on.
New Jersey helped found PJM decades ago — the J stands for Jersey — and has threatened to leave before. Clean energy advocates in the state have long been frustrated with what they said was PJM’s heavy-handed and outdated approach to energy generation as New Jersey aims to decarbonize its power grid. About five years ago, PJM did enough to assuage the state’s concerns, calming the tensions that had been festering for a few years.
But things flared up again last year, when PJM’s wholesale auction caused massive price spikes for New Jersey ratepayers and utility customers in other states. Those rates took effect at the beginning of this month and, according to the bill’s sponsors, will ultimately cost ratepayers across the region billions more than they were paying. Now, blue-state governors have gotten involved, including Murphy, and PJM has become a major villain for Democrats, especially in New Jersey, where every seat in the Assembly is on the ballot this fall just as bills are spiking.
Smith and Karabinchak announced their bill at a press conference led by Sen. Andrew Zwicker, who, along with other Democratic lawmakers, is supporting a package of bills to study modernizing the grid, encourage battery storage projects, require power hungry artificial intelligence data centers to figure out their own power supplies, and explore exotic forms of clean energy, including wave action energy and nuclear fusion. Zwicker said he didn’t expect these bills to move until the fall.
The “bring your own power” bill for AI is opposed by industry groups. While some data centers have entered into deals to secure their own power supplies, officials here are worried AI companies won’t do that and will drive up demand, causing prices to continue skyrocketing for utility customers. Industry argues it will drive away the tech companies the governor is trying to lure to the state.
Ray Cantor, who represents the Business and Industry Association, said in a statement that the bill “won't work and will only drive that exploding industry to other states.” He also said “natural gas needs to be part of our energy future." — Ry Rivard
PLAZA DECARBONIZATION FUNDED: An initial project to begin reducing emissions from the Empire State Plaza complex, a campus about the size of Disney’s Magic Kingdom, has been fully funded. The Office of General Services announced the additional $136 million in on-budget money at an event in front of the Sheridan Avenue plant on Wednesday. That brings the total state money poured into “Phase 1” to $241 million, including $100 million from the environmental bond act. The Phase 1 projects will reduce emissions at the state government complex, where 11,000 workers spend their days, by 21 percent when completed in 2029. — Marie J. French
MAMDANI’S ENERGY AGENDA — POLITICO’s Marie J. French: An evangelist for a massive publicly-owned renewable energy buildout is poised to lead the nation’s largest city — one that’s heavily reliant on fossil fuels.
Zohran Mamdani, the 33-year-old socialist who’s on track to win New York City’s Democratic mayoral primary, focused much of his campaign on affordability issues like providing free buses, freezing rents and creating city-run grocery stores. But he has a history of advocacy on climate issues as well.
“I’m running for mayor to make the city more affordable and to take on the existential crisis of our time — climate change,” Mamdani said during a March candidate forum on climate.
One of Mamdani’s signature legislative priorities — although he wasn’t the prime sponsor of the bill — was pushing for the New York Power Authority to build out new renewable energy generation. He’s one of only two lawmakers who actively participated in Con Edison’s last rate case and recently slammed the utility for seeking another bill hike. Mamdani also opposed a new gas plant in his district that was blocked by Gov. Kathy Hochul and sponsored an unsuccessful measure to ban new fossil fuel power plants.
“TRANSIT WON” — MTA CEO Janno Lieber, who’s been skeptical of free buses, offered an optimistic take on Zohran Mamdani’s apparent primary victory.
Mamdani campaigned on making buses “free and fast,” though Albany, not the mayor, controls the MTA.
“What Mamdani has introduced is a lot of discussion about how to have more transit and more affordable transit and better transit — and he’s been consistent on that,” Lieber said at a press conference following the MTA’s Wednesday board meeting. “That’s what I take away from it. I’m looking forward to other candidates joining him in that conversation, and we really welcome that.”
Lieber declared that “transit won” during the primary and cited the victories of Manhattan Borough President Mark Levine, who won his primary to be city comptroller, and state Sen. Brad Hoylman-Sigal, who won the race to succeed Levine as borough president. Both are boosters of the MTA and its major policy pushes, including congestion pricing. — Ry Rivard
NUCLEAR PLAY — POLITICO’s Marie J. French: Gov. Kathy Hochul ordered the state’s power authority to return to its roots and build a new nuclear power plant in upstate New York.
Hochul has directed the New York Power Authority to build at least 1 gigawatt of new nuclear power as soon as possible — enough to supply more than 1.1 million homes — to meet growing energy demand in the Empire State.
The move puts New York in a leading position as states race to embrace new nuclear, and Hochul is leveraging the nation’s largest state-owned public power organization to do it. The power authority owns the hydroelectric dams that provide about a fifth of the state’s electricity and had a stake in its nuclear fleet until a quarter-century ago.
“There's a consensus building that we need more generation and more baseload,” said NYPA President and CEO Justin Driscoll. “From time to time, the state calls upon us to build big infrastructure, and this is another example of that — not only expertise but confidence in the power authority to deliver.”
THE FALLOUT — POLITICO’s Marie J. French: Labor unions and big manufacturers support Gov. Kathy Hochul’s full-speed-ahead push for new nuclear energy, but environmental advocates are wary.
ENERGY EFFICIENCY FUNDING CHALLENGED: A coalition of large energy users is asking the Public Service Commission to reconsider the $5.4 billion for heat pumps and energy efficiency it approved in May. Multiple intervenors, which include the State University of New York system, Wegmans and manufacturers like Corning, filed the petition for rehearing last week. The coalition argues that the commission failed to specify the programs that will be funded, whether they pass a cost/benefit test, the subsequent rate and bill impacts and “how those rate impacts could possibly be considered reasonable when added to the myriad of other initiatives and programs for which customers have been made financially responsible.” — Marie J. French
|
