By Teresa Rivas | Monday, June 30

June Bloom. As the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed a tumultuous first half of the year at new highs, one might be tempted to reference Charles Dickens’ most famous line: ‘It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.’ But given that it's quite overused, I’ll go with another: “There are books of which the backs and covers are by far the best parts.”

Stocks began 2025 full of hope that Trump 2.0 would include growth-friendly initiatives and tax cuts, with minimal damage from tariff talk, and they seem to be ending June with a similar optimism. The Senate votes as soon as this evening to advance the Trump administration's megabill, with plenty of tax cuts, while Canada’s decision to withdraw its digital sales tax marks the latest positive move on trade.

As for what happened in between -- DeepSeek, the Liberation Day tariff shock, a bond market meltdown, and strikes on Iran? Water under the bridge. If you only checked your portfolio on the first trading day of the year and today, you’d probably be happy -- and have fewer worry lines. 

“Yes, it does seem like we’ve had more than our fair share of uncertainty thus far this year, but I think it’s just one of those things where the market is always going to have to deal with uncertainty,” argues Dave Sekera, chief U.S. market strategist at Morningstar. A big takeaway from the first half is that investors need to be mindful of their risk tolerance. 

So what will the second half of the year bring? In this deeply unloved bull market, many are skeptical we’ll see a big move higher into the end of the year, despite fundamental drivers like positive earnings revisions, economic data, and potential rate cuts underpinning the market. 

Trade is likely to dominate the headlines near-term, as the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs expires next week. “Trade headlines are moving fast -- and twists and turns look set to dominate the final days before 9 July, potentially injecting volatility into markets that are eager for clarity over U.S. trade policy…[but] we do not currently see them as a catalyst for a sustained market sell-off,” notes Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, chief investment officer of global equities at UBS Global Wealth Management.

In the absence of further trade setbacks, the path seems to favor a grind higher amid ongoing economic growth, slowly cooling inflation, and resilient consumer spending. It’s 2025, so anything could happen, but the bulls may once again have the ball. 

DJIA: +0.63% to 44,094.77
S&P 500: +0.52% to 6,204.95
Nasdaq: +0.47% to 20,369.73

The Hot Stock: Hewlett Packard Enterprise +11.1%
The Biggest Loser: Albemarle -3.5%

Best Sector: Technology +1%
Worst Sector: Consumer Discretionary -0.6%