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Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg’s daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.

French Prime Minister François Bayrou is expected to survive today’s no-confidence vote, but only because the powerful far right has chosen not to topple the government for now. The ballot, triggered by the Socialist Party, follows a collapse of talks on tweaking contentious pension reforms. The parliamentary reprieve may be short-lived, though, with Bayrou’s government facing challenges over the budget it’s due to present by mid-July. The finance plan includes another round of spending cuts and tax increases that are widely opposed by lawmakers but urgently needed to rein in the country’s growing debt pile. All this comes just as Europe has committed to a military spending spree, while the perilous July 9 deadline for a trade deal with the US is just over a week away.Andrea Palasciano and Samy Adghirni

What’s Happening

ECB Trade Spat | The EU is prepared to accept a trade accord with the US that includes a 10% universal tariff on many of the bloc’s exports, but wants lower rates on key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors and commercial aircraft, we have learned. EU officials are also pushing to lower levies on automobiles and car parts and on steel and aluminum, sources say.

Ukraine Trade | The EU reached a new trade arrangement with Ukraine to replace the special tariff-free regime put in place after Russia’s invasion, which had sparked farmer protests in countries like Poland. Now, Ukraine’s access to the EU markets for agricultural products will vary, but with increases in quotas, compared with levels before the war, for the most sensitive produce.

German Prices | German inflation unexpectedly eased to 2% this month, matching the ECB’s goal for the first time in almost a year. The outlook for prices in the euro area is broadly favorable, with indications suggesting inflation will settle at around the 2% target. ECB President Christine Lagarde, meanwhile, said strategy tweaks unveiled yesterday will allow policymakers to deliver more nuanced communication in an increasing unpredictable world.

Another Hawk | Olaf Sleijpen takes over today as the head of the central bank of the Netherlands, succeeding the hawkish Klaas Knot on the ECB’s Governing Council. Sleijpen’s former colleagues and professors predict the 54-year-old economist will adopt a similar policy stance to Knot, as the euro region confronts challenges from global trade ructions to conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine.

Hungarian Pride | A record turnout for Hungary’s annual Pride march on Saturday, held in defiance of a police ban, is a strong sign of surging opposition to Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s 15-year rule. Orbán’s Fidesz party has long used divisive cultural issues to shore up support, but the strategy seems to have backfired as support strengthens for the opposition figure Péter Magyar.

Around Europe

Future Warfare | After more than three years of all-out war with Russia, Ukraine has been transformed into a factory of weaponry redefining the battlefield and what wars may look like tomorrow. New kits are being developed and deployed at a fraction of the cost and on a hugely compressed timescale compared with just about anywhere in the world.

Embattled Sánchez | Pedro Sánchez’s former top adviser, Santos Cerdán, was remanded in custody yesterday in a corruption probe that could threaten the Spanish premier’s grip on power. Instability in his fragile parliamentary coalition is making it difficult to pass laws and his government is facing the political consequences of an unexplained power outage.

Pro-EU Test | Moldova’s ruling pro-European party is leading in a new opinion poll three months ahead of a general election that’s crucial for maintaining the country’s course to join the EU by the end of the decade. The Sept. 28. vote will be another test for President Maia Sandu, as Russia fights to regain its influence in the eastern European nation.

Heat Scare | A heatwave sweeping across western Europe is expected to peak in the coming days, threatening power networks and triggering health alerts. Spain set a June heat record of 46C, and alerts have been issued in England and France.

Chart of the Day

Chinese automakers continued to expand their European foothold in May, capturing the highest share ever of hybrid-car sales and the biggest slice of the electric-vehicle market in 10 months. Manufacturers led by BYD and SAIC’s MG surpassed 9% share in both of those categories, based on figures from industry researcher Dataforce. Including combustion-engine models, European registrations of Chinese-branded cars topped 5% for the first time.

Today’s Agenda

All times CET

  • 10 a.m. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte speaks at Airbus Top Executive Forum in Toulouse, France
  • 11 a.m. Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen participates in a Strategic Dialogue with the World Economic Forum and global business leaders
  • 11:30 a.m. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Luxembourg Prime Minister Luc Frieden joint news conference after talks in Berlin
  • 3:30 p.m. ECB President Lagarde speaks on a panel including her US counterpart Jerome Powell at the bank’s Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal

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