With the first half of 2025 behind us, the stock market and the dollar have the achievement gap of Lisa and Bart Simpson. The S&P 500 rose 5.5% in H1 after a tumultuous start to the year, while the greenback lost 10% of its value last month, capping off its worst first six months of the year since the collapse of its gold peg in 1973.

US stock bulls are excited that the Fed is expected to cut interest rates this year, while inflation and unemployment remain relatively low. Plus, there’s optimism about projected corporate earnings, and signals from the Trump administration that deals with major trade partners are coming soon.

Meanwhile, Benjamins get the blues

Investors worldwide are ditching dollars and longterm US government bonds (demand for which is tied to the USD’s value) amid concerns about the longrun stability and vibrancy of the US economy.

• Trump’s mercurial tariff moves have created uncertainty that threatens to stymie economic growth, while the import duties are expected to spur inflation, which typically suppresses the value of bonds, experts told the Financial Times.
• An added worry is the “One Big Beautiful Bill” tax legislation that is progressing through Congress is projected by the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office to add $3.3 trillion to US national debt over the next decade, potentially making government bonds a less attractive investment. 

So what? A weaker dollar would make imported products pricier and Americans less likely to ramble nonstop about how cheap everything was on their recent trip to Spain. But some analysts say it could also boost the stocks of American tech behemoths that earn much of their revenues abroad, as each Euro or Yen they rake in overseas converts to more dollars. US manufacturers might also benefit since it makes their exports cheaper compared to international competitors.

Big picture: While some economists say that the dollar’s value always acts like a roller coaster, the current plunge might accelerate the erosion of its status as the world’s go-to for wealth storage and international transactions.—SK

Senators voted on a slew of amendments to the “Big, beautiful bill.” The Senate pulled an all-nighter to hold a vote-a-rama—a marathon voting session that’s probably less fun than it sounds—to slog through proposed amendments to the tax bill full of GOP priorities the president hopes to have on his desk by July 4. Lawmakers grappled with many thorny political issues, like Medicaid cuts and clean energy tax credits, as Republicans tried to inch toward a vote on the bill while keeping enough members of their own party on board to pass it without support from any Democrats. To do that, the Republicans can only lose three votes, and two members of the party have already vowed to oppose it. If the Senate version passes, it’ll go back to the House, which will have to sign off on any changes from the version passed there.

Canada scraps tech tax that caused Trump to call off trade talks. One day before it was set to start collecting its new digital services tax—which would have impacted both domestic and foreign tech companies—Canada rescinded it in an effort to get trade talks with the US back on track. The move to kill the tax came after President Trump said last week that he was halting all trade discussions with Canada because of it. The tax would have put a 3% levy on the revenue companies make from digital services for Canadian users that exceeds C$20 million each year. But the stakes of the trade talks are even higher: About 75% of Canadian exports go to the US, while Canada is the biggest buyer of US goods, per Bloomberg.

Home Depot targets pro market with $4.3 billion acquisition. Looking to expand its customer base to homebuilding professionals alongside all the ambitious dads, Home Depot is buying building products distributor GMS for $4.3 billion. A Home Depot subsidiary will buy up shares in GMS in a deal that values it at $5.5 billion that it expects to be completed by early next year, which GMS agreed to despite a competing $5 billion bid. It’s the second recent big purchase for the retailer as it inserts itself deeper into the building materials supply chain in search of new revenue now that the Covid home improvement boom has ended.—AR

In potentially the biggest threat to Starbucks since other companies figured out that they, too, could market pumpkin-spice flavored treats, Luckin Coffee, China’s biggest coffee chain, opened its first US stores yesterday with two outposts in New York City.

If you haven’t heard of Luckin, it’s probably because you’ve never tried to get a cup of joe in China, where it’s grown massive by offering super cheap drinks and quirky flavors.

• The chain, which opened in 2017, surpassed the number of stores Starbucks had in China in 2019. It now has 22,000+ locations in its home country, per CNN.
• In 2023, Luckin’s revenue in China exceeded what Starbucks made there for the first time, bouncing back from an accounting scandal that got Luckin booted from the Nasdaq in 2020.

Meanwhile…things haven’t looked so good for Starbucks in China recently, and not just because its baristas can’t spell names in Chinese characters, either. The chain positioned itself as the high-end option, and sales dipped as customers turned to cheaper alternatives like Luckin. Last week, Starbucks denied reports it planned to sell off its Chinese business.

Big picture: Starbucks has a 50-year headstart in the US market, but it’s recently been struggling here, too. The chain is trying to turn around five quarters of slowing sales by bringing back traditional coffeehouse vibes and smiley faces on cups.—AR

The WNBA just keeps putting up Ws. Following a season that set records for viewership, attendance, and merch sales, the WNBA announced yesterday that it’s getting bigger by adding three new teams, which will bring the league up to 18 franchises total. The rollout includes a team in Cleveland in 2028, one in Detroit in 2029, and the third in Philadelphia in 2030. And that’s just part of how the league is expanding as fast as Caitlin Clark hustles down the court: The Golden State Valkyries played their first games this year, and expansion teams in Toronto, Canada, and Portland, OR, were already slated for next season.

There’s expansion happening on the money side, too: Sportico reported last month that the value of the league’s current franchises had increased by an average 180% over the past year. The outlet calculated the combined worth of the teams at $3.5 billion and the average value of each franchise as $269 million, compared to $96 million per team in 2024. But things might get tense as the players seek to benefit from that growth. Their union ditched its collective bargaining agreement last fall in order to try to get higher salaries and improved benefits for the players and their families.—AR

Brew Mini: It’s Tuesday, but you’re already nearly halfway through the week. Celebrate with the Mini as a little treat.

Movie head-to-head

The New York Times has released its full list of the best 100 movies of the 21st century, as determined by “more than 500 filmmakers, stars, and influential film fans.”

We’ll give you two movies on the list, and you have to guess which one was ranked higher.

1. Parasite / Spirited Away
2. There Will Be Blood / No Country for Old Men
3. Moneyball / Bridesmaids
4. Inception / Borat
5. Up / Ratatouille