Balance of Power

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Javier Milei was on a winning streak.

Now, it’s becoming increasingly difficult for him to avoid the elephant in the room: a $16 billion court judgment against Argentina that his government can neither afford to settle nor duck for much longer.

Since taking office 18 months ago, the libertarian president has refused to negotiate with Burford Capital, the litigation firm representing minority shareholders affected by the nationalization of oil company YPF in 2012 under a previous administration.

But the same US federal judge who found in favor of Burford in 2023 yesterday ordered Argentina to transfer its controlling stake in YPF to the plaintiffs.

Argentina clearly can’t pay. It’s barely accumulated enough foreign reserves to meet targets agreed with the IMF for the release of $20 billion in loans. And Milei can’t hand over YPF shares without congressional approval either.

YPF signage at the New York Stock Exchange on April 11. Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg

The president said he’ll appeal the decision. What’s clear is that it’s becoming one of the biggest headaches he inherited from previous Peronist governments, threatening to derail the positive investment case he’s been building for the country.

Under Milei’s watch, the economy has started to grow, inflation is easing and the state has eliminated some currency and capital controls.

Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, the former president whose specter has always scared off investors — she was in office during YPF’s nationalization — is now under house arrest for a corruption conviction.

Yet all will be in vain if Argentina fails to attract foreign capital to sustain the positive trajectory.

The Burford case puts both goals at risk: it hinders the government’s ability to sell global bonds under New York law, and raises questions about what legal guarantees investors would face in Argentina.

For now, Milei is taking a page from his predecessors’ playbook and kicking the can down the road. — Patrick Gillespie

Milei in Buenos Aires on April 2. Photographer: Tomas Cuesta/Getty Images

Global Must Reads

The European Union is prepared to swallow a trade accord with the US that includes a 10% universal tariff on many of its exports, but wants lower rates on key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors and commercial aircraft, sources say. President Donald Trump, meanwhile, threatened to proceed with ramping up tariffs on Japan, while his top economic adviser said the White House aims to finalize deals with partners after the July 4 holiday — ahead of a July 9 deadline for the resumption of higher levies for dozens of countries.

Keir Starmer is girding for what could be the most consequential vote of his premiership, with Labour rebels warning that the UK government’s welfare overhaul still risks defeat in parliament despite huge concessions. A prime minister hasn’t seen a bill fail at a similar stage since 1986, and defeat would deal a seismic blow to a government that won power with a massive majority almost a year ago.

WATCH: Lizzy Burden reports on the welfare vote on Bloomberg TV.

Israel expressed openness to peace with Syria, a change of tack after warning against engaging with the Islamist-rooted government that took power last year. Trump signed an executive order terminating US sanctions on Syria, aiming to boost the Arab nation’s battered economy and support the new government after rebels overthrew the regime of Bashar Al-Assad.

Senate Republican leaders continue to scrounge for votes to pass Trump’s $3.3 trillion tax and spending bill as lingering intraparty fights threaten to upend the legislative centerpiece of the president’s domestic agenda. There are currently eight Republican holdouts, and Majority Leader John Thune can afford to lose only three to pass the measure.

Thailand’s Constitutional Court suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra from office until it rules on a petition seeking her ouster for alleged ethical violations just after she had revamped her cabinet — the biggest blow yet to her government of less than a year. A separate court started the trial of a decade-old royal insult case against her father, Thaksin Shinawatra.

A protester during an anti-government demonstration in Bangkok on Saturday. Photographer: Valeria Mongelli/Bloomberg

Trump lashed out at Elon Musk, accusing the Tesla and SpaceX CEO of benefiting excessively from government electric vehicle subsidies, while Musk threatened to ramp up political spending to unseat lawmakers who support the president’s bill.

Deep cuts to the US Agency for International Development and its potential dismantling could result in about 14 million additional deaths by 2030, according to a study published in medical journal The Lancet.

Democratic Republic of Congo wants a peace agreement with Rwanda-backed M23 rebels before a planned summit next month between Trump and the leaders of the two nations.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban sought to play down a backlash against his rule at the weekend Pride parade, portraying it as a “shameful” event orchestrated by the EU.

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Chart of the Day

Chinese automakers expanded their European foothold in May, capturing a record share of hybrid-car sales and the biggest slice of the electric-vehicle market in 10 months. Manufacturers led by BYD and SAIC’s MG surpassed 9% share in both of those categories, according to researcher Dataforce. Including combustion-engine models, European registrations of Chinese-branded cars topped 5% for the first time.

And Finally

In the wooded dunes that flank the Dnipro River outside Kyiv, two squat unmanned vehicles resembling mechanized crabs descend a ramp onto the sand. These Ukraine-made robots are already being deployed at the front, supplying troops, taking back wounded, laying mines and barbed wire, and even operating in combat mode, mounted with a heavy-caliber machine gun. They are just one example of the many defense innovations being devised and built in Ukraine, where the conflict with Russia is redefining modern warfare.

A modular TerMIT tracked robotic platform. Photographer: Julia Kochetova/Bloomberg

Global Must Reads

Chart of the Day

And Finally

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