Bitcoin (BTC) hit $110,000 for the first time since June 11 and is now within striking distance of its $112,000 all-time high, which was recorded on May 22.

July 3, 2025
 
 

Crypto Daybook Americas will not be published on Friday due to the July 4 holiday. It will return on Monday. Wishing our U.S. readers a happy Independence Day.

 

What to know:

 

By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin (BTC) hit $110,000 for the first time since June 11 and is now within striking distance of its $112,000 all-time high, which was recorded on May 22.

Bitcoin dominance has slipped from its June 22 high of just over 66% and now stands a bit above 65%. This figure reflects bitcoin’s market capitalization relative to the entire crypto market. Currently, bitcoin boasts a market cap of $2.2 trillion.

 

Today's major economic event is the release of the U.S. jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to have increased by 110,000 last month, the smallest gain in four months and a slowdown from May’s increase of 139,000. The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.3%, up from 4.2%. If this figure materializes, it would be the highest unemployment rate since October 2021. Over the past 12 months, the unemployment rate has held within a tight range between 4% and 4.2%.

 

The report comes a day early because of the July 4 holiday weekend, which is likely to see reduced trading volumes. The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq will close at 1 p.m. today and bond markets at 2 p.m. Markets will remain closed on Friday.

 

Ahead of the release, markets were pricing in a 75% chance that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.50% during its meeting scheduled for July 30.

 

“On-chain flows remain stable, suggesting that major players are awaiting further signals from this week’s Non-Farm Payrolls and Initial Jobless Claims data," HTX Research wrote. "Structurally, the market is navigating between two potential scenarios."

 

If labor data weakens, a confirmed September rate cut could ignite a renewed rally in BTC, HTX said. On the other hand, if NFP surprises to the upside, a break below $104,000 could trigger a technical correction.

 

"Overall, bitcoin now finds itself at a crucial inflection point, shaped by renewed capital inflows, rising speculative interest, and diverging macroeconomic expectations. The coming days could prove pivotal for confirming the next major trend in the market". Stay alert!

 

Overnight Flows

 
 

What to Watch

Crypto

  • July 15: Lynq is expected to launch its real-time, interest-bearing digital asset settlement network for institutions. Built on Avalanche’s layer-1 blockchain and powered by Arca’s tokenized U.S. Treasury fund shares, Lynq enables instant settlement, continuous yield accrual and improved capital efficiency.

Macro

  • July 3, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases June employment data.
    • Non Farm Payrolls Est. 110K vs. Prev. 139K
    • Unemployment Rate Est. 4.3% vs. Prev. 4.2%
    • Government Payrolls Prev. -1K
    • Manufacturing Payrolls Est. -5K vs. Prev. -8K
  • July 3, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance data for the week ended June 28.
    • Initial Jobless Claims Est. 240K vs. Prev. 236K
    • Continuing Jobless Claims Est. 1960K vs. Prev. 1974K
  • July 3, 9 a.m.: S&P Global releases June Brazil data on manufacturing and services activity.
    • Composite PMI Prev. 49.1
    • Services PMI Prev. 49.6
  • July 3, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (final) June U.S. data on manufacturing and services activity.
    • Composite PMI Est. 52.8 vs. Prev. 53
    • Services PMI Est. 53.1 vs. Prev. 53.7
  • July 3, 10 a.m.: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases June U.S. services sector data.
    • Services PMI Est. 50.5 vs. Prev. 49.9
  • July 4, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases May producer price inflation data.
    • PPI MoM Prev. -0.37%
    • PPI YoY Prev. 7.27%
  • July 4, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases June consumer confidence data.
    • Consumer Confidence Prev. 46.7
  • July 4, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global releases June Canada data on manufacturing and services activity.
    • Composite PMI Prev. 45.5
    • Services PMI Prev. 45.6
  • July 9, 12:01 a.m. — Deadline for the European Union and other U.S. trading partners to finalize deals to avoid reinstatement of reciprocal tariffs on imports.
  • July 9, 10 a.m.: U.S. Senate Banking Committee holds a hybrid hearing titled “From Wall Street to Web3: Building Tomorrow’s Digital Asset Markets” with CEOs of Blockchain Association, Chainalysis, Paradigm, and Ripple testifying. Livestream link.

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

  • None in the near future.

 

Token Events

Governance Votes & Calls

  • Arbitrum DAO is voting on lowering the constitutional quorum threshold from 5% to 4.5% of votable tokens. This aims to match decreased voter participation and help well-supported proposals pass more easily, without affecting non-constitutional proposals, which remain at a 3% quorum. Voting ends July 4.
  • Compound DAO is voting on invoking the early termination clause of its 2025 security partnership with OpenZeppelin, giving the required 60-day notice and paving the way for a formal RFP process managed by the Compound Foundation on behalf of the DAO.Voting ends July 7.
  • Polkadot Community is voting on launching a non-custodial Polkadot branded payment card to “to bridge the gap between digital assets in the Polkadot ecosystem and everyday spending.” Voting ends July 9.
  • July 3, 11 a.m.: Zilliqa to host an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session.
  • July 4, 10:30 a.m.: Moca Network to host a session on ‘What Makes Moca Chain Different?’ on Binance Live.

Unlocks

  • July 11: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.31% of its circulating supply worth $11.43 million.
  • July 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.76% of its circulating supply worth $54.63 million.
  • July 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.79% of its circulating supply worth $15.59 million.
  • July 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1% of its circulating supply worth $15.76 million.
  • July 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 1.87% of its circulating supply worth $32.94 million.

Token Launches

  • July 3: Impossible Cloud Network Token (ICNT) to be listed on Binnace, Bybit, Bitget, Gate.io KuCoin, and others.
  • July 4: Biswap (BSW), Stella (ALPHA), Komodo (KMD), LeverFi (LEVER), and LTO Network (LTO) to be delisted from Binance.
 

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through July 17.

  • Day 4 of 4: Ethereum Community Conference (Cannes, France)
  • Day 4 of 6: World Venture Forum 2025 (Kitzbühel, Austria)
  • Day 3 of 6: Bitcoin Alaska (Juneau, Alaska)
  • July 4-5: The Bitcoin Paradigm 2025 (Neuchâtel, Switzerland)
  • July 4–6: ETHGlobal Cannes (Cannes, France)
  • July 10-13: Mallorca Blockchain Days (Palma, Spain)
  • July 16: Invest Web3 Forum (Dubai)
  • July 20: Crypto Coin Day 7/20 (Atlanta)
  • July 24: Decasonic’s Web3 Investor Day 2025 (Chicago)
  • July 25: Blockchain Summit Global (Montevideo, Uruguay)
  • July 28-29: TWS Conference 2025 (Singapore)

Join us for this curated gathering that unites D.C.’s most important public officials with legal, policy and compliance leaders from the private sector to advance crypto standards and reform.

Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through July 17.

Token Talk