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Daily News Brief

July 3, 2025

Welcome to CFR’s Daily News Brief. Today we’re covering a U.S.-Vietnam deal on tariffs, as well as...

  • A judge’s ruling against Trump’s asylum ban
  • The EU’s plan for a new climate target
  • A loosening of U.S. chip curbs on China

There will be no Daily News Brief on Friday, July 4, in observance of Independence Day.

 
 

Top of the Agenda

The United States and Vietnam have reached an understanding on trade following negotiations, both sides said yesterday. While they did not jointly confirm its terms, U.S. President Donald Trump offered detailed comments on social media. Other countries hoping to reach trade deals with Washington ahead of tariff hikes scheduled for July 9 had watched the deal closely. 

 

The details. On Truth Social, Trump said that Washington will lower planned tariffs on many Vietnamese goods from the 46 percent level announced in April to 20 percent. Goods shipped through Vietnam would face 40 percent levies, he added, while Vietnam would remove all tariffs on U.S. products.

  • Vietnam did not publicly confirm or refute the terms outlined in Trump’s post, but said that the countries reached a consensus on a “reciprocal trade agreement framework” and that Hanoi would provide “preferential market access” for U.S. goods including large-engine cars.
  • The transshipment caveat appears to be designed to prevent China sending goods to the United States through Vietnam. Beijing today said it was “conducting an assessment” of the U.S.-Vietnam deal and opposes “a deal at the expense of China’s interests.”
  • Thirty percent of Vietnam’s exports go to the United States, and a 20 percent baseline tariff is higher than the 10 percent agreed with London in one of the few other trade agreements reached so far with Trump.

 

Where other talks stand. 

  • The top European Union (EU) trade negotiator is holding talks with senior U.S. officials in Washington today. Unnamed European officials told the Financial Times that countries in the bloc held differing stances on how hard to push for tariff reductions. 
  • The U.S. and India are also in crunch negotiations. Japan’s negotiator went home earlier in the week without an agreement.
 
 

“If you’re going to compete with global markets, you’re going to need to have partners in other countries. You’re going to need to have production across, have global supply chains in some way, shape or form…we’re going to have to [have] allies, and it’s hard to do if you’re putting tariffs on all of them at the moment.”

—CFR expert Shannon K. O’Neil, Why It Matters

 

A Chilling Effect on Nonproliferation

A satellite image shows new air strike craters on the perimeter of the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Facility amid the Iran-Israel conflict, near Qom, Iran, June 24, 2025.

Maxar Technologies/Reuters

After the recent strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, countries without nuclear weapons could decide nuclear nonproliferation and transparency efforts that the world has taken for granted now pose more risk than reward, CFR Senior Fellow Erin D. Dumbacher writes in this Expert Brief.

 
 

Across the Globe

U.S. relaxes China curbs. The U.S. government removed some export restrictions for three semiconductor design firms, dropping a requirement that they ask its permission in order to sell their software in China. Washington had enacted those curbs in response to Beijing’s rare earth export restrictions earlier this year, but both countries later agreed to deescalate trade restrictions during recent bilateral talks in London.

 

EU climate target. EU leadership officially presented a draft law to reduce carbon emissions by up to 90 percent from 1990 levels by 2040. Plans for the draft target were softened in recent months by allowing countries to use carbon credits from overseas in their calculations. Climate action groups opposed such a modification. If the draft target is approved, it’s expected to serve as a reference for a separate 2035 climate target that the EU is due to present by November’s UN climate talks.

 

Pentagon strike assessment. The top Pentagon spokesperson said yesterday that recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites had set the country’s nuclear program back by one to two years, the latest in a series of U.S. damage assessments. Trump previously claimed the program had been “obliterated.” Iran’s foreign minister said in an interview broadcast Tuesday that the country’s key Fordow site has been “seriously and heavily damaged.”

 

Chinese FM in Europe. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with EU leaders in Brussels yesterday. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas called on China to end rare earth export restrictions and support “just and lasting peace in Ukraine,” while Wang said both sides should increase mutual understanding in light of “unilateralism and acts of bullying.” They also discussed nuclear nonproliferation, Brussels said. European Council President António Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen are due to visit Beijing later this month.

 

Bangladesh’s Hasina convicted. A court sentenced former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to six months in prison for contempt of court after she said that murder cases against her gave her “license to kill” in a recording that went viral on social media. She is currently living in India after being ousted from leadership last August. It is the first verdict in any lawsuit against her since the downfall of her government. 

 

Russian official killed. Major General Mikhail Gudkov, the deputy head of Russia’s navy, was killed in Russia’s Kursk border region, Russia’s military said. Unofficial Russian and Ukrainian military Telegram channels said Gudkov and others were hit by a Ukrainian missile attack. He is one of Russia’s highest-ranking officers to have died in the war; Kyiv had accused him of war crimes, which Moscow denies.

 

El Salvador prison account. Lawyers for Kilmar Abrégo García, who was mistakenly expelled to El Salvador in March before being returned to the United States, said in a court filing yesterday that he was beaten, deprived of sleep, and psychologically tortured while in Salvadorian custody. The Trump administration is pursuing criminal charges against Abrégo García that he denies, while seeking to dismiss the lawsuit against it regarding Abrégo García’s expulsion. El Salvador’s government did not immediately comment.


Ruling against asylum ban. A federal judge ruled yesterday that a Trump proclamation banning asylum at the southern border overstepped executive authority. He wrote that Trump could not replace congressionally-approved laws and that asylum-seekers qualified as a class of people subject to nationwide decisions, despite a recent Supreme Court ruling against nationwide injunctions. The administration is expected to appeal. White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller said the judge was trying to “circumvent” the Supreme Court and “the West” should restore its “sovereignty.”

 
 

How the U.S. Asylum Process Works

Asylum-seeking migrants enter the U.S. from Mexico in Jacumba Hot Springs

Adrees Latif/Reuters

The right to apply for asylum, a type of protection granted to migrants fleeing persecution or other harm in their home countries, has been a central component of U.S. immigration law for decades, CFR’s Diana Roy writes in this Backgrounder.

 
 

What’s Next

  • Today, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Trinidad and Tobago.
  • Tomorrow, the EU’s Costa and Von der Leyen attend a summit on EU-Moldova relations in Chișinău.
  • On Saturday, the Tour de France begins in Lille.
  • On Sunday, the BRICS summit begins in Brazil.
 
 

What Is BRICS and Why Is It Expanding? 

BRICS leaders pose before a plenary session of the 2024 summit in Kazan, Russia.

Sputnik/Alexander Kazakov/Pool/Reuters

As BRICS grows in both membership and global sway, its expansion comes with divisions among its members old and new on how to set the stage for a revised world order, CFR’s Mariel Ferragamo writes in this Backgrounder.

 
 

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