President Trump's tax and spending bill set in motion nearly $1 trillion in cuts to Medicaid and other health policy changes that could loom over the midterm elections. - But the real effects likely won't be felt until well after the ballots are cast.
Why it matters: Bill supporters could be insulated from political blame by a slow drip of policy changes that will play out over the next decade — a contrast to when Republicans tried to repeal Obamacare in 2017. - "Republicans backloaded a lot of the Medicaid and ACA cuts," said Larry Levitt, executive vice president at KFF. "There will be few tangible effects in health care from this bill before the midterms."
- That creates a messaging challenge for Democrats, he added. "There's not going to be a day where everyone wakes up and all of a sudden ... more people are uninsured."
What's inside: Medicaid work requirements, which account for many of the nearly 12 million people projected to lose coverage under the bill, generally won't kick in until 2027, and some states could get extensions. Yes, but: People covered through the Affordable Care Act exchanges will see changes more swiftly. The bill does not extend the Biden-era enhanced premium subsidies that expire at year's end, and the GOP-led Congress has shown little appetite for finding other legislative vehicles. - Obamacare premiums would increase by more than 75% on average for enrollees next year without the enhanced subsidies.
- That would give Democrats "a very potent talking point going into the midterms," Levitt noted.
Reality check: Hospitals and clinics have to plan ahead and already are making contingencies for the Medicaid cuts and coverage losses. That could translate into facility closures or the elimination of some services. Read more
|