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Trump gutted the weather service. Then Texas flooded.
It's a brutal reminder that in disasters, we need the federal government.
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Over the weekend, torrential rains struck central Texas, causing the Guadalupe River to surge more than 20 feet in 90 minutes. Evacuation orders were issued, but too late. Flash floods killed at least 82 people, including 28 children, with dozens of girls still missing as of Sunday evening, many of them kids from Camp Mystic, a Christian summer camp.
State and local officials blamed federal weather forecasters for underestimating the amount of rainfall. The weather service predicted four to eight inches of rain; instead central Texas received more than 10 inches, and possibly up to 18 in some places.
Officials in Texas did not link their critique of federal forecasts directly to the administration of President Donald Trump. But many on social media and elsewhere have pointed out that Trump and the so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) have made drastic cuts to the National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Retired federal scientists warned that the cuts could hamstring forecasts and make extreme weather events less predictable and more dangerous.
The New York Times reported that “crucial positions at the local offices of the National Weather Service were unfilled as severe rainfall inundated parts of Central Texas … prompting some experts to question whether staffing shortages made it harder for the forecasting agency to coordinate with local emergency managers as floodwaters rose.”
Did Trump’s cuts cause excess deaths in Texas? It will probably be some time before we have a definitive answer to that question, if we ever do at all. We do know two things now, though.
First, Trump’s administration has worked to destroy the safety net, which makes all kinds of disasters — extreme weather, earthquakes, contagious disease, individual health events — much more likely to be much more deadly.
And, second, Trump has made these cuts in such a way that whenever there is a disaster, people are going to link the results to the policies of one Donald Trump.
Trump’s attack on the weather service
Trump’s attack on forecasting capability is unprecedented and inexcusable. He fired 24,000 employees at NOAA (they were reinstated — then re-fired). The budget for 2026 cuts more than a quarter of the agency’s funding, including all of it for the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, which conducts weather and climate research.
James Franklin, former chief of the National Hurricane Center, told USA Today that the cuts “will stop all progress” in US forecasting.
There’s a similar story at the NWS. Former NWS meteorologist Brian Lamarre explained to NPR in May that the NWS had 5,000-6,000 employees 30 years ago. That has gradually whittled down to 4,500 — and then another 550 were cut by DOGE or quit without being replaced. As a result, “for the first time in the history of the National Weather Service, the agency is below 4,000 people.”
Lamarre says there are eight offices of the 122 that are not able to sustain 24/7 staffing — a dangerous situation since disasters can obviously occur anytime.
“I don't think the current situation is sustainable,” Lamarre concluded.
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