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Putin’s errorTrump and Putin’s relationship has curdled. It’s a strange turn, given how good things looked for Russia after Trump’s election. The new president seemed to regard Putin respectfully, and Putin seemed poised to get much of what he wanted in his war against Ukraine. Instead, Putin badly misplayed his cards. In today’s newsletter, I explain how he turned a potential White House ally into a skeptic. A bright startTrump promised during the campaign to quickly end the war in Ukraine. When he took office, his administration was skeptical about Ukraine’s NATO aspirations, ready to let Russia control the Ukrainian territory it had taken, disinclined to spend a lot on Kyiv’s defense and even open to recognizing Moscow’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. It was a peace offering that achieved many of Russia’s war aims. Then came Volodymyr Zelensky’s disastrous Oval Office visit in February. Trump belittled Zelensky as an ingrate on live TV, insisting, “You don’t have the cards right now.” He also said Putin had been the victim of an American witch hunt. The U.S. began pressing Ukraine to sign an agreement handing over much of its mineral wealth. All of this came at the perfect time for Russia. It had lost about a quarter-million soldiers in the war. Its economy was weak. But with a sympathetic American president, Putin was in reach of claiming victory. A shot in the foot
But Putin was not ready to settle. Just as he did when he invaded Ukraine in 2022, he believed he could get everything he wanted. In his hubris, he repeatedly rebuffed Trump’s push for a cease-fire. He continued to pound Ukraine with horrific drone attacks. Meanwhile, he pushed on the battlefield, trying to take more land and weaken the Ukrainian government. While his precise designs are not clear, some American officials think he wants to conquer Kherson, Odessa or even Kyiv — major Ukrainian cities. American officials think this ambition is delusional. Trump watched all this with increasing alarm. In April, after a Russian missile and drone barrage on Ukraine, Trump posted online: “I am not happy with the Russian strikes on KYIV. Not necessary, and very bad timing. Vladimir, STOP!” A turnaboutNow Trump criticizes Putin, not Zelensky. After a half-dozen calls with Putin this year, Trump appears to have changed his view of the man. This week, he bluntly said he was not happy with Putin because he was killing Ukrainians. “We get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin, if you want to know the truth,” Trump said. “He’s very nice to us all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless.” Coming from almost any other politician in Washington those words would not be surprising. But for Trump to say them shows how much Putin has alienated the White House — and potentially wasted his chance for a negotiated peace. Trump has resumed weapons shipments to Ukraine after a brief pause by the Pentagon. Senate Republicans are pushing a new set of sanctions against Russia. Trump is considering the proposal. Ukraine is war weary, but its will to fight remains, especially if Russia pushes onward. It is innovating on the battlefield, and its drones exact a heavy toll on the Russian Army. Pledges of support from Europe and more air defense from the U.S. will make it very tough for Putin to end the war by force. For more: Russia launched a record number of drones and missiles at central and western Ukraine.
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