The Morning: Putin messed up
Plus, Brazil, a nuclear deal and ”The Let Them Theory.”
The Morning
July 10, 2025

Good morning. Here’s the latest news:

  • Tariffs: President Trump launched a sudden trade war with Brazil by announcing 50 percent tariffs beginning next month.
  • Nuclear deal: Keir Starmer, the British prime minister, and Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, are expected to promise today to have their nuclear arsenals work together if Europe is threatened.
  • Vladimir Putin: He’s escalating the war, convinced Ukraine’s defenses may collapse in the coming months. We have more on Putin and Trump’s changing relationship below.

(And one more thing: If you are a fan of Mel Robbins, the best-selling author of “The Let Them Theory,” we talked to her and got her five tips for healthy relationships.)

Vladimir Putin stands with his head slightly titled while Donald Trump, blurred in the foreground, looks on.
Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. Marcos Brindicci/Reuters

Putin’s error

Author Headshot

By Julian E. Barnes

I cover international security.

Trump and Putin’s relationship has curdled. It’s a strange turn, given how good things looked for Russia after Trump’s election. The new president seemed to regard Putin respectfully, and Putin seemed poised to get much of what he wanted in his war against Ukraine. Instead, Putin badly misplayed his cards. In today’s newsletter, I explain how he turned a potential White House ally into a skeptic.

A bright start

Trump promised during the campaign to quickly end the war in Ukraine. When he took office, his administration was skeptical about Ukraine’s NATO aspirations, ready to let Russia control the Ukrainian territory it had taken, disinclined to spend a lot on Kyiv’s defense and even open to recognizing Moscow’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. It was a peace offering that achieved many of Russia’s war aims.

Then came Volodymyr Zelensky’s disastrous Oval Office visit in February. Trump belittled Zelensky as an ingrate on live TV, insisting, “You don’t have the cards right now.” He also said Putin had been the victim of an American witch hunt. The U.S. began pressing Ukraine to sign an agreement handing over much of its mineral wealth.

All of this came at the perfect time for Russia. It had lost about a quarter-million soldiers in the war. Its economy was weak. But with a sympathetic American president, Putin was in reach of claiming victory.

A shot in the foot

An explosion lights up a sky behind a building.
In Kyiv this week. Gleb Garanich/Reuters

But Putin was not ready to settle. Just as he did when he invaded Ukraine in 2022, he believed he could get everything he wanted. In his hubris, he repeatedly rebuffed Trump’s push for a cease-fire. He continued to pound Ukraine with horrific drone attacks.

Meanwhile, he pushed on the battlefield, trying to take more land and weaken the Ukrainian government. While his precise designs are not clear, some American officials think he wants to conquer Kherson, Odessa or even Kyiv — major Ukrainian cities. American officials think this ambition is delusional.

Trump watched all this with increasing alarm. In April, after a Russian missile and drone barrage on Ukraine, Trump posted online: “I am not happy with the Russian strikes on KYIV. Not necessary, and very bad timing. Vladimir, STOP!”

A turnabout

Now Trump criticizes Putin, not Zelensky. After a half-dozen calls with Putin this year, Trump appears to have changed his view of the man. This week, he bluntly said he was not happy with Putin because he was killing Ukrainians. “We get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin, if you want to know the truth,” Trump said. “He’s very nice to us all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless.”

Coming from almost any other politician in Washington those words would not be surprising. But for Trump to say them shows how much Putin has alienated the White House — and potentially wasted his chance for a negotiated peace.

Trump has resumed weapons shipments to Ukraine after a brief pause by the Pentagon. Senate Republicans are pushing a new set of sanctions against Russia. Trump is considering the proposal.

Ukraine is war weary, but its will to fight remains, especially if Russia pushes onward. It is innovating on the battlefield, and its drones exact a heavy toll on the Russian Army. Pledges of support from Europe and more air defense from the U.S. will make it very tough for Putin to end the war by force.

For more: Russia launched a record number of drones and missiles at central and western Ukraine.

THE LATEST NEWS

Trade

Colorful containers are stacked in a port, surrounded by cranes and mountains.
In Santos, Brazil. Amanda Perobelli/Reuters
  • Trump's threatened 50 percent tariffs on Brazil would be the highest rate yet on a major U.S. ally and trading partner. His announcement accused Brazilian authorities of wronging the country’s former president, Jair Bolsonaro.
  • The European Union is waiting, and hoping, for a trade deal this week.

Texas Floods

In four photos, a smiling family of two adults and two kids; a woman playing a guitar at a camp; a man in a cowboy hat; and two twin girls hugging each other.
Victims of the floods.  Clockwise from top left: via The Kerrville Daily Times, via Juli Ragsdale, Kathleen Ortiz, John Lawrence via Associated Press
  • Eight-year-old girls at sleep-away camp; families crammed into riverside R.V.s; residents asleep in their beds. These are the lives lost to the Texas floods.
  • The Camp Mystic cabins were in an “extremely hazardous” area for floods. A recent expansion built new cabins in the flood zone. See maps.
  • Along the Guadalupe River, the rising floodwaters quickly engulfed a 60-room inn. Watch a video.

Government Investigations

James Comey sits, frowning, in an armchair. He’s wearing a suit, no tie and a paisley pocket square.
James Comey in 2019. Monica Jorge for The New York Times
  • The Trump administration is investigating two officials — the former F.B.I. director James Comey and the former C.I.A. director John Brennan — who previously oversaw the government’s investigation into the 2016 Trump campaign’s connections to Russia.
  • The Secret Service began tracking Comey after he posted an image of shells on a beach that Trump’s allies said amounted to a threat against the president.

Elon Musk

Politics

  • Trending: People were searching online for the video of Trump praising the Liberian president for his “good English” at the White House. English is Liberia’s official language. See the video from CNN.
  • The Supreme Court refused to revive an aggressive Florida immigration law that lower courts blocked.
  • Foreign diplomats know that success is now all about stroking the president’s ego, writes Michael Shear, who has covered both Trump presidencies.
  • The Trump administration subpoenaed Harvard seeking student data and challenged the university’s accreditation.

Middle East

A woman cares for her nephew lying in a hospital bed with brain damage.
A 3-year-old at Nasser Hospital in Gaza. Mariam Dagga/Associated Press

Other Big Stories

Piles of trash in Philadelphia.
In Philadelphia. Matt Slocum/Associated Press

OPINIONS

Americans have to update safety standards to match our changed climate, David Wallace-Wells writes.

Immigrant children are expected to connect with Superman, an all-American refugee from another planet. But for Junot Díaz, the comparison is unwelcome.

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MORNING READS

People sit in ones and twos along a rocky coast, looking out at the blue ocean.
Calamoni beach, Favignana. Leonardo Colantoni for The New York Times

Favignana: It’s a dreamy Italian island you may not have heard about.

“The Retrievals”: The second season of the podcast investigates why many women experience severe pain during C-sections. Listen here.

Antidepressants: Their withdrawal effects may be overblown, according to new research.

“Always Sunny”: How a show about terrible people became the defining American sitcom.

Trump’s blunt instrument: Laura Loomer is a provocateur and self-professed Islamophobe. She has few friends in the West Wing, but a big fan in the Oval Office.

Your pick: The most-clicked story in The Morning yesterday was about churches being allowed to endorse political candidates from the pulpit.

Lives Lived: To save his family castle in Ireland from bankruptcy, Henry Mount Charles staged concerts on its grounds, drawing the likes of U2, Bob Dylan, Madonna and the Rolling Stones. He died at 74.