A Reuters Open Interest newsletter |
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What matters in U.S. and global markets today |
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An "everything rally" in markets greets the start of a two-day meeting, with stocks at record highs, bond yields subsiding and a taking the heat ahead of what is widely expected to be the first U.S. interest rate cut of the year.
A quarter point Fed rate cut on Wednesday is fully priced. But the spotlight is as much on the as on the policy call itself, after a pair of developments underscored the White House’s growing sway over the Fed. Meanwhile, high, and China's offshore yuan hit its highest level of the year after positive signs from the U.S.-China trade talks in Madrid.
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The Senate's narrow confirmation of Stephen Miran to the Fed's Board hands President Donald Trump's top economic adviser a policy vote just as the FOMC convenes, while a U.S. appeals court ruling means Governor Lisa Cook can attend unless the Supreme Court intervenes. Together with Trump's public call for a 'bigger' cut and his stated intent to replace Chair Jerome Powell when his term ends next May, the moves highlight the degree of political pressure now bearing down on the central bank. Ahead of a 20-year bond auction later today, long-term Treasury yields hover close to four-month lows.
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Big Tech led Wall Street gains on Monday, with Tesla shares climbing 3.6% after regulatory filings revealed CEO Elon Musk had acquired nearly $1 billion worth of the electric vehicle maker's stock last week and Alphabet hit a record high to race past $3 trillion in market capitalization. Nvidia underperformed after China's market regulator said it will continue an investigation into the AI chip leader after early findings showed it had violated the country's anti-monopoly law.
Although the S&P500's year-to-date gains of 12% are still only half of that of the MSCI world index excluding U.S. stocks, funds tracking the 'Magnificent Seven' megacaps are now up 16% for 2025. S&P futures were higher again ahead of Tuesday's open. -
China's offshore yuan hit 2025 highs even though its ebullient stock benchmarks stalled on Tuesday after U.S. and Chinese officials said they reached a framework agreement to switch short-video app TikTok to U.S.-controlled ownership - a move expected to be confirmed in a Friday call between U.S. Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The Madrid talks encouraged hopes of another extension of the trade truce beyond the world's two biggest economies beyond November. Elsewhere, data showed the British jobs market and wage growth softened ahead of this week's Bank of England meeting and German investor morale unexpectedly strengthened in ZEW's September update.
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U.S. President Donald Trump sued the New York Times, four of its reporters, and publisher Penguin Random House for at least $15 billion on Monday, claiming defamation and libel, and citing reputational damage, a Florida court filing showed.
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U.S. and Chinese officials said on Monday they have reached a framework agreement to switch short-video app TikTok to U.S.-controlled ownership that will be confirmed in a Friday call between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
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U.S. companies should be allowed to report earnings every six months instead of on a quarterly basis, Trump said on Monday, announcing what could prove to be a major shift for corporate America.
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The U.S. labor market appears to be deteriorating rapidly just as the country's housing market is also creaking, two negative forces that risk feeding off each other and smothering economic growth. Read the latest from ROI markets columnist Jamie McGeever.
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While U.S. corporate taxes and interest rates fell over the past 40 years, the federal deficit soared. Does that mean the federal government is now justified in taking a slice of corporate profits – and is this the tax hike the United States needs? Find out in Robinhood Markets’ Chief Investment Officer Stephanie Guild’s latest piece for ROI.
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Euro credit convergence erasing core-periphery divide |
While France's credit rating downgrade on Friday generated politically charged headlines, the bigger surprise was Spain's upgrade which got far less attention. An even bigger story is euro credit convergence and the disappearance of the long-standing dichotomy between the region's core and its periphery.
Germany may be clinging to its prized AAA sovereign credit rating - which could soon be in jeopardy given the country's planned fiscal boost and debt spree - but euro zone sovereign credit ratings' weighted average appears to be gravitating to a high single-A.
GDP-weighting flatters that average a bit because Germany accounts for almost a quarter of the bloc's economic output, but there's little doubt the other big euro nations are closing in on single-A - roughly where credit default swaps currently price the effective U.S. sovereign rating. | Graphics are produced by Reuters. |
That's a far cry from the reality just before the global banking crash and subsequent euro debt crisis 18 years ago, when Germany, France, Spain and five other euro sovereigns commanded AAAs. But the single-A average mirrors the deterioration in public credit ratings around the world.
If the final remaining top-rated European countries eventually start to slip towards that new centre of gravity - as now seems likely given that the long-standing German debt brake has been lifted and defence spending prioritised - cheaper joint borrowing at a rating of AA or above may start to look much more attractive, even for the sceptics. |
Germany, the Netherlands, Ireland and Luxembourg are now the only countries that still hold at least one AAA from the three main credit firms. The other nations have suffered in recent years. |
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