Payrolls at US companies unexpectedly dropped in September, according to ADP Research data released Wednesday. While part of that was due to an adjustment related to government numbers it relies on, the company said the data continues to support an underlying softening trend. Other recent sources generally point to anemic job growth, less appetite for hiring, few firings and modest wage gains.

“This month’s release further validates what we’ve been seeing in the labor market, that US employers have been cautious with hiring,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP. The report, published in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, showed wage growth continued to gradually soften. Workers who changed jobs saw a 6.6% increase in pay, the lowest in a year. Those who stayed put saw a 4.5% gain, little changed from the prior month.

The ADP data stand to be the highest profile report on the labor market this week as the Trump administration said it would delay its September employment numbers, scheduled for Friday, because of the government shutdown. Some on Wall Street have cast doubt on ADP’s data, favoring instead that of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. But President Donald Trump’s August firing of BLS commissioner Erika McEntarfer after a grim jobs report has planted seeds of doubt as to the reliability of BLS numbers and whether they will be insulated from politics.

Trump’s first choice to replace McEntarfer may not have assuaged such doubts. EJ Antoni is chief economist of the conservative Heritage Foundation and a contributor to its far-right Project 2025 manifesto. A Trump loyalist, his selection was controversial from the start, given his lack of government experience and extreme statements on everything from whether the BLS should issue job reports to Social Security being a “Ponzi scheme.” A recent CNN report may have made matters even worse for the nominee. It also was recently reported that Antoni was present at the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol. Late Tuesday, he withdrew his nomination. —David E. Rovella

What You Need to Know Today

Private-market giants are hoping that the next surge of growth will separate the best from the rest in an industry saturated by too many firms. After decades of rapid growth, higher interest rates have made it a struggle for buyout firms to offload investments, find new corners of outperformance and return cash to investors. That slowdown threatens to gum up the time-honored cycle of investment, gain and reinvestment that drives the market for alternative assets.

“There are 19,000 private equity funds in the US. There are 14,000 McDonald’s in the US. How are there more private equity funds than McDonald’s? That’s actually crazy, right?” KKR & Co. partner Alisa Wood said Wednesday at Bloomberg’s Women, Money and Power event in London. “Capital coming back is really important. The mark-to-market paper gains only take you so far.” But a new wave may be coming, and it may precipitate a shake-out.

General Motors, Hyundai Motor and Ford said they would extend discounts on certain electric models after a $7,500 federal tax credit expired Tuesday, a bid to maintain momentum after a surge in third-quarter sales. Car companies are stepping in to preserve discounts and smooth the sell-down of existing EV inventory. EV sales are expected to slow in coming quarters as Trump seeks to end incentives for such purchases and automakers dial back production and rejigger product plans to add more gasoline and hybrid models. 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s influence is being put to the test in Argentina, where investors are questioning the value of his pledge of support last week for President Javier Milei. Barely a week after Argentine assets surged on a vow from Bessent to provide “all options for stabilization,” traders Tuesday drove the Argentine peso down over 6% against the dollar—forcing Milei’s government to intervene and stem the plunge, only for it to fall again Wednesday and prompt further dollar sales by officials.

The capacity of Buenos Aires to keep up such efforts on its own is limited by its lean foreign exchange reserves, putting a spotlight on what Washington is prepared to do. The crisis of confidence stems from a poor showing of Milei’s party in a key local election last month, and the US pledge was aimed at shoring up the Trump ally.

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What You’ll Need to Know Tomorrow