New AI deals spark bubble worries, Tesla signals an EV slowdown, and the potential for easy progress͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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October 8, 2025
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The World Today

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  1. AI deals circularity fears
  2. JPM breaks even on AI
  3. EV industry slowdown
  4. Starmer’s passage to India
  5. Russia’s ‘Axis of Upheaval’
  6. China pessimism crackdown
  7. Trio win chemistry Nobel
  8. Unrest in Ecuador
  9. Somaliland push picks up
  10. Contrails’ climate impact

A century of The Shipping Forecast, and a Kusama retrospective in Switzerland.

1

AI deals spark circularity fears

A chart showing Chinese, European, and US investment in AI.

AI firms signed major deals with chipmakers, but the agreements raised concerns that industry funding is increasingly circular — and possibly concealing a bubble. Elon Musk’s xAI raised $20 billion, a chunk of which comes from Nvidia, with the expectation that it would be used to buy Nvidia chips; Nvidia also recently backed OpenAI with up to $100 billion to build data centers filled with Nvidia semiconductors. Separately, OpenAI agreed a partnership with AMD, buying both stock and chips: The deal boosted AMD’s share price, and thus covered the price of the chips, Bloomberg’s Matt Levine noted. The insularity of the various deals could “overstate the robustness of the AI ecosystem,” The New York Times reported.

For more on the latest deals out of Silicon Valley, subscribe to Semafor’s Tech briefing. →

2

Dimon says AI input has paid off

A chart showing global corporate investment in AI.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said the money the bank has poured into AI has already begun paying for itself. The company invests about $2 billion a year in AI, but has reduced headcount and improved efficiency to save at least the same amount, Dimon told Bloomberg. The CEO has long been bullish on AI, suggesting it could mean that future generations “are going to live to 100 [and]... probably be working three-and-a-half days a week.” Still, “businesses aren’t yet sure if the benefits of AI services are worth what tech firms want to charge for them,” The Information wrote, and economists have long predicted shorter work weeks — John Maynard Keynes famously suggested the idea in 1930 — to little avail.

For the latest from the world’s top executives, subscribe to Semafor’s CEO Signal briefing. →

3

Investors cool on Tesla price cuts

A chart showing the US’ EV market share.

Tesla unveiled lower-cost versions of its most popular models in order to boost flagging sales in the face of Chinese dominance in the global EV sector. The end of US subsidies has hit the industry, and carmakers around the world are “falling back in love with petrol,” the Financial Times reported. Ford, General Motors, and Honda are all betting on a longer future for internal combustion engines, while calls are growing for an EU ban on petrol by 2035 to be relaxed. Only China continues to go all-in on electric cars, raising fears that the West could fall behind: Tesla’s moves left investors underwhelmed.

4

Starmer in India to boost business ties

An ad showing Starmer and Modi.
Leon Neal/Pool via Reuters

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is leading a business delegation to India, part of efforts by London to court a fast-growing economy and reduce its vulnerability to protectionism from its biggest trading partners. Britain has in recent months been hit by US tariffs targeting key export sectors and now faces the prospect of its steel sales to the EU — a major market — being curbed. The trip won’t be smooth sailing, though. Starmer faces domestic pressure over immigration, and easing visa restrictions is one of India’s key demands. The British leader will also likely ask his counterpart about New Delhi’s seemingly deepening ties with Moscow: India’s prime minister wished Russia’s president a happy birthday this week.

5

Russia and the ‘Axis of Upheaval’

Xi and Putin.
Sputnik/Alexander Kazakov/Pool via Reuters

Russia is sharing important battlefield lessons it has gleaned from its Ukraine invasion with China, Iran, and North Korea, a leading analyst argued in Foreign Affairs. The assessment contradicts Western conventional wisdom that Moscow has approached the conflict more as a meat grinder than with strategic nous. “Russia realizes that warfare is changing, so its military must change, as well,” the piece said. It comes amid mounting evidence of cooperation between what Washington hawks have dubbed the “Axis of Upheaval”: China is reportedly helping Iran evade US sanctions with a barter-like trading system, and is an increasingly critical investor in Russia, while Beijing’s premier is due in Pyongyang this week.

6

China cracks down on pessimism

A chart showing youth unemployment rates for Asian nations.

Chinese censors are ramping up their crackdown on online dissent as internet users become increasingly vocal over the country’s economic slowdown. Authorities have punished numerous bloggers, including one who observed that China still lags far behind the West in terms of quality of life. The campaign looks to silence “excessively pessimistic sentiment,” according to a government agency. Young people in China face tough prospects: Youth unemployment reached 19% in August, with more than 12 million new college graduates every year competing for too-few jobs. Meanwhile, thousands have complained of a recent decision by Beijing to attract high-end foreign talent. “We’ve got plenty of talent here already, so I don’t really get it,” one social media user wrote.

Subscribe to Semafor’s forthcoming China briefing for the latest from the country. →

7

Nobel for metal-organic frameworks

Susumu Kitagawa, Richard Robson, and Omar M. Yaghi.
Susumu Kitagawa, Richard Robson, and Omar M. Yaghi. Niklas Elmehed. Nobel Prize.

The 2025 Nobel Prize for Chemistry was awarded for the creation of metal-organic frameworks, molecular structures that can capture CO₂, filter pollutants from water, or trap moisture from desert air. Susumu Kitagawa, Richard Robson, and Omar Yaghi discovered that copper ions could be used to create a crystal with large cavities within it, which was porous to smaller atoms and molecules but blocked larger ones. The materials act as customizable molecular sponges: The cavities can be made in different forms, allowing the sponges to capture or process different substances, and opening up enormous possibilities for environmental and industrial applications.

Live Journalism
Promotion poster for the World Economy Summit.

Leslie Maasdorp, CEO, British International Investment; Pierre Wunsch, Central Bank Governor, Belgium; Sherrie Westin, CEO, Sesame Workshop; Carlos Cuerpo, Minister of Economy, Trade and Business, Spain; and Toni Townes-Whitley, CEO, SAIC, will join the stage at the Fall Edition of Semafor’s World Economy Summit. Hosted in the Gallup Great Hall and spanning eight sessions over two days, the summit will feature on-the-record interviews on the state of global growth and finance, AI advancements, powering global energy needs, and the forces reshaping the world economy.

Each session brings together the leaders and forces most directly shaping the global economy, with programming powered by Semafor’s world-class editorial and executive leadership.

Oct. 15 & 16, 2025 | Washington, DC | Request Invitation

8

Protesters target Ecuador president

 chart showing Ecuador’s murder rate compared to the LatAm and Caribbean average.

Protesters in Ecuador attacked a car carrying President Daniel Noboa, the latest demonstration of increasingly violent discontent against his government. A minister said around 500 people threw rocks at Noboa’s motorcade, while reports suggested bullets may have been fired, too. Noboa faces a mounting array of challenges since securing reelection in April, with murder rates in once-peaceful Ecuador rising to among the highest globally, fueled in part by cocaine trafficking from neighboring Colombia. In a bid to tame brewing unrest, Noboa recently walked back the scrapping of a fuel subsidy: The entitlement had been draining government coffers, but ending it sparked widespread anger amid cooling economic growth that has left millions struggling to get by.

Semafor Exclusive
9

Somaliland wins port giant’s backing

DP World Chairman Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem, Somaliland President  Abdirahman Mohamed Abdilahi, Semafor Gulf Editor Mohammed Sergie. Courtesy of The Africa Debate
Semafor Gulf Edit