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A steep road lies ahead.
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Today’s Agenda

Phase One

As details of a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas emerge, it’s a hold-your-breath moment for the Middle East. After two ruthless, bloody years of fighting, they’ve reached the first phase of a 20-point plan to end the war. Yet many questions concerning Gaza’s reconstruction and the path to peace remain, says Marc Champion.

What we do know is that that Hamas is planning to return the remaining 48 Israeli hostages — 20 of whom are thought to still be alive — to Israel on Monday or Tuesday. In exchange, Israel will release almost 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and withdraw its military forces from Gaza. 

While many parties have been involved in these negotiations, it was US President Donald Trump who applied intense pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister. For that, Marc says, Trump “deserves the credit that he’ll certainly demand for making it happen.” The big question ahead of Friday is whether the US president will get what he (and his son Eric) so desperately wants: a Nobel Peace Prize.

Medal or no medal, Marc says “a steep road lies ahead. The fact that statements announcing the deal said nothing about the disarmament of Hamas or full withdrawal of the IDF does not inspire confidence.”

Yet there’s reason to be cautiously optimistic, he adds: “Every day without shooting could make it harder to restart the war, especially if the US, Arab states and other international players act to use the ceasefire well. The more international aid workers, journalists and other independent parties are flooded into the zone, the greater the political costs of breaking the ceasefire. Exposure of what took place over the last 24 months will be ugly for both sets of leaders.”

Farmaggedon

If trade negotiations between the US and China took place over text, this is how I imagine they’d go:

US: We’re gonna do tariffs! Big ones!

China: Cute. Keep your soybeans.

US: Wait — what?

China: We’re buying from Argentina now.

US: But we sold you 6.8 million metric tons last year!

China: And this year that’ll be … 0.00. Congrats.

US: That’s $12.6 billion our farmers need!

China: Yikes. Should’ve thought of that *before* tariffs.

US: You’ll hit us up later though, right?

China: Maybe. If Brazil’s busy.

Now, farmers in the Midwest are swimming in soybeans. Patricia Lopez says the crop is “spilling out of bins and grain elevators from North Dakota to Missouri.” Unless people in Indiana, Iowa and Wisconsin develop a sudden taste for veggie burgers, tofu and miso, there’s no good use for them. “And farmers are suffering a double whammy because the costs of the inputs needed to grow those soybeans — fertilizer, seeds, potash, equipment — are rising, also because of tariffs,” she writes.

Trump’s grand plan to fix the mess he created is to throw money at the problem. But Patricia warns that a $10 billion bailout — the current proposal swirling around — would provide only a temporary patch and put the burden on taxpayers. “Farmers have been among Trump’s most devoted supporters. In the last election, out of 444 farm-dominant counties, Trump won all but 11. He proclaims himself to be the ‘best friend’ farmers have ever had. It’s getting harder and harder for farmers to see it,” she concludes.

Bonus GOP Reading: Working-class, non-White voters could tip the scales between Democrats and Republicans for years to come. — Ronald Brownstein

The Need for Speed

Perhaps frustrated farmers could take a page out of the Czech Motorists Party’s playbook and stand up to the powers that be.

Lionel Laurent says the party is on the brink of securing 13 seats in Prague, an impressive feat considering “Motoristé Sobě” — which translates to “Motorists for Themselves” — didn’t exist until three years ago. The party’s sole focus is evident in its name: They want to drive! And they can’t do that so easily with all the bicycle paths cropping up in Prague. “Its four-wheels-good message has clearly resonated in the car-heavy land of Skoda, where fossil fuels drive the energy mix and the economy is a key cog in Das Auto’s supply chain,” he writes.

Although the party’s slogan — “car, coal and the (Czech) crown” — may raise some eyebrows, Lionel says the movement should be a wake-up call for progressives who have previously written off the power of road rage. “The Motorists are also evidence of a growing gender divide, mixing anti-green and pro-car policies with identity and culture wars in a post-MAGA world.” Read the whole thing.

Telltale Charts

Nike, Elf Beauty, Walmart, Primark and many other retailers have made the tough choice to raise prices after tariffs. But shoppers aren’t powerless in the face of price hikes, argues Andrea Felsted. “Soaring costs for gas and groceries in 2022 taught them ways to cope. In retail parlance, this is known as ‘dialing out’ inflation; to everyone else it’s savvy shopping. And Americans are very good at it.” We shop for dupes. We buy in bulk. We seek out generic labels. “When it comes to the holidays, that could mean avoiding products with the highest tariff exposure,” Andrea writes. I guess that Bonne Maman Advent calendar will have to wait until 2026 ...

Meanwhile in China, everyone is staring at mountains of uneaten mooncakes in a post-Mid-Autumn Festival daze. The funny thing about the holiday treat is that “the packaging is often far more prized than the pastry itself, whose sickly-sweet richness tends to get mixed reviews,” writes David Fickling. “Regulations introduced in 2022 forbade packaging made of expensive materials such as precious metals or rosewood, banned fancy fillings such as shark fin and bird nest, and warned of inspections for products costing more than 500 yuan ($70),” he says. But loopholes have led to a boom in exports from Hong Kong to the mainland. “Though plastic is far from a prestige material for the exterior of mooncake giftboxes, it’s still almost indispensable for the pouches, trays and silica sachets used to keep their contents fresh,” he writes.

Further Reading

$100,000 H-1B visa fees are a distraction from real reform. — Bloomberg editorial board

The AI bubble will crash, but the crash probably won’t be like 2008. — Bill Dudley

Putin is taking the hybrid warfare tactics he uses on land to sea. — James Stavridis

HSBC shareholders are not happy with this Hong Kong real estate deal. — Shuli Ren

European companies that list in the US are more radical than you think. — Chris Hughes

Will anti-woke comedians recover from the Riyadh Comedy Festival? — Jason Bailey

ICYMI

New tax brackets for 2026 just dropped.

Gold’s rally is helping China challenge Trump.

Texas halts the execution of a death row inmate.

Barron Trump is tipped for a top job at TikTok.

Kickers

More veggie burger drama in the EU.

Rachel Sennott is booked and busy.

Angel Reese is walking the runway.

Happy moldy cheese day, freaks!

Leave the leaves in your yard.

Notes: Please send five pound wheels of Cabrales blue cheese and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net.

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