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Diplomatic Coup

President Donald Trump made a big investment in trying to bring the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza to an end, and it’s about to pay off.

The US president has notched a major diplomatic achievement by brokering a ceasefire between Israel and the Palestinian militant group that will see the release of all the remaining hostages held by Hamas in Gaza.

It was an important step that Trump said today he hoped would lead to “an everlasting peace” in the region. Speaking at a meeting of his cabinet, he added that he planned to travel to Israel for the return of the hostages, which could come as soon as Monday.

Israelis celebrate in Tel Aviv. Photographer: Kobi Wolf/Bloomberg

Foes and allies alike have lauded the accomplishment. House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries called it “a very, very positive step in the right direction.”

Even Iran, which has supported Hamas and was hit by a US airstrike during a 12-day skirmish with Israel, said it’s supportive of any initiative aimed at ending the conflict in Gaza, while stopping short of welcoming the Trump-brokered deal.

The agreement was announced just a day after the two-year anniversary of Hamas’ attack on southern Israel, which resulting in 1,200 Israelis being killed and another 250 abducted, an assault that triggered the conflict.

It also came just ahead of tomorrow’s announcement of the Nobel Peace prize. Trump has been conducting an aggressive public campaign arguing that he deserves the award.

He’s taken credit for ending at least seven wars, though in some of those cases his role and impact were limited or involved conflicts that either continue or had already ended. There’s little question about Trump’s central role in bringing about the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, though.

The head of the independent five-member Norwegian Nobel Committee told local media that the decision on this year’s award was made Monday, Bloomberg’s Heidi Taksdal Skjeseth reported from Oslo. He indicated that the peace deal would count toward next year’s award.

By then it may be clear whether Trump’s “everlasting” peace can be realized. But it’s worth remembering that the history of Middle East peace agreements is one of incremental steps rather than great leaps forward. — Joe Sobczyk

Read More:

• Hostage Supporters Flock to Tel Aviv to Celebrate End of Watch
• UN Lays Out Plan for Gaza Aid, Support After Ceasefire Accord
• Putin Postpones Russia-Arab Summit, Citing Gaza Ceasefire Deal

Don’t Miss

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the US has agreed to extend major assistance to Argentina, after the embattled South American nation failed on its own to stabilize its exchange rate.

Trump doubled down on his threats to use the government shutdown to make sweeping cuts to Democratic priorities and the federal bureaucracy as party leaders continued to blame each other for the standoff.

Flight delays caused by air traffic control staffing shortfalls have rippled across the country as controllers are forced to work without pay as a result of the shutdown.

Trump’s effort to send troops into Chicago and Portland to counter immigration protests was met with mixed reactions in a pair of contentious court hearings, both of which ended without rulings.

A judge has temporarily imposed stricter limits on when federal agents can use physical force and make arrests during Chicago-area demonstrations against Trump’s immigration crackdown.

Federal judges have rejected the Justice Department’s requests to delay more than a dozen legal challenges to Trump’s policies as the government shutdown enters its second week.

A lapse in the National Flood Insurance Program because of the shutdown threatens to snarl home sales in the nation’s riskiest floodplains and leave some homeowners without coverage in the middle of hurricane season.

Homes surrounded by flood waters after Hurricane Beryl in Sargent, Texas, in 2024. Photographer: Eddie Seal/Bloomberg

The slowdown in immigration means the US doesn’t need such robust job gains to keep the unemployment rate stable, according to new research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

The Trump administration is considering whether to take a step toward restricting the US operations of TP-Link Systems, a China-linked router-maker whose Wi-Fi equipment is popular in the American market.

Jared Isaacman, a fintech billionaire and Elon Musk ally, has met with Trump in recent weeks and discussed reviving his nomination to lead NASA, according to a person familiar with the matter. 

Bloomberg Economics Washington: Join us Oct. 14 for a deep dive into the outlook for the economy and what it means for the Federal Reserve. Register here.

Watch & Listen

Today on Bloomberg Television’s Balance of Power at 5 p.m., host Joe Mathieu interviews Republican Senator Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia about the shutdown and the pressure on both sides to find a resolution.

On the Trumponomics podcast, host Stephanie Flanders, Bloomberg’s head of government and economics, speaks with Matthew Glassman, senior fellow at Georgetown University’s Government Affairs Institute, and Anna Wong, chief US economist for Bloomberg Economics, to explore why the current US government shutdown may be different from previous iterations and how it could end up triggering a recession. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Map of the Day

Conservatives outnumber liberals in 38 states, with the highest share of residents who identify as conservative in Wyoming, Alabama, the Dakotas and Idaho. In no state do the majority of voters identify as liberal. The largest liberal shares are in Vermont, Washington and Oregon. The data comes from new daily polling from Morning Consult of the ideological alignment of voters in all 50 states, and may provide key insights into which states will be competitive in the 2028 presidential election. Among those considered swing states, Georgia and North Carolina are furthest to the right and Nevada closest to the middle. Conservatives also have double-digit advantages in the key states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. — Alex Tanzi 

What’s Next

The University of Michigan’s preliminary reading of consumer sentiment in October is out tomorrow.

The IMF and World Bank annual meetings begin Monday in Washington.

The NFIB’s small-business optimism index for September will be released Tuesday.

The Fed’s Beige Book survey of regional businesses will be released Wednesday.

The National Association of Home Builders housing market index will be published Oct. 16.

Industrial Production in the US for September is scheduled to be reported Oct. 17.

The summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations opens Oct. 26 in Malaysia.

Seen Elsewhere

• Police reports in Portland leading up to Trump's deployment of federal troops to the city describe protests outside an ICE facility as relatively small and “low energy,” according to the Wall Street Journal.
• Almost a quarter of FBI agents are currently assigned to immigration enforcement, a major redirection of the agency's focus from national security threats and counterintelligence, the Washington Post reports.

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