Principals

1. Shutdown gears turning
2. Gaza peace next steps
3. Letitia James indicted
4. Defense bill advances
5. Econ data drought
6. Weiss’ early imprint

PDB: The US and China have a surprising amount in common, Semafor’s Andy Browne writes 

Venezuela’s María Corina Machado wins Nobel Peace Prize … Trump gets health screening … Peru’s Boluarte impeached

We will be dark on Oct. 13 for the federal holiday but return to your inboxes on Tuesday with a new name: Semafor Washington DC. We’re still telling principals what you need to know every morning, but we’ve found that you relate to us, across platforms and a growing set of subjects, simply by the name Semafor. We appreciate your readership as always, and we’re here for all scoops, ideas, and feedback.

— Burgess, Elana, and Morgan

GOP may offer Dems health care vote

Senate Republican leaders are considering whether to offer Democrats a vote on extending health care subsidies if they reopen the government, a small sign of movement as the shutdown enters its tenth day with the Senate breaking until Tuesday, Semafor’s Burgess Everett reports. With some federal employees set to start missing paychecks Friday, Senate Majority Leader John Thune said a vote on the tax credits might be an “off-ramp,” telling PBS NewsHour that “if giving them a potential vote on something in the future is a way for them to be able to go their people and say, this is something we got in exchange, then maybe that’s ultimately what helps open the government.” Democrats still want more assurances from President Donald Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson; all that will have to wait until next week. “I’m not aware of any official talks going on on the part of anybody. That’s the problem,” said Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H.

Trump’s Gaza peace plan solidifies

Trump moved closer to securing a major diplomatic win in the Middle East, as Israel’s military announced that a Gaza ceasefire had taken effect Friday and its cabinet approved the “outline” of the deal surrounding the release of hostages held by Hamas. US officials recognize that the peace deal remains tenuous — it’s part of why US envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner are on the ground in the region — and that many steps remain for Gaza to become “functional,” as one senior official put it. But the Trump administration is increasingly optimistic about the possibility of long-term peace. Senior US officials told reporters that CENTCOM will establish a coordination center in Israel to help monitor the peace deal and integrate security forces. Up to 200 US personnel are expected to be in the region, though one official stressed they’re not “intended to go into Gaza.”

— Shelby Talcott

Trump indicts another foe

Trump’s campaign against his political adversaries is accelerating. New York Attorney Gen. Letitia James was indicted by a grand jury on Thursday in Virginia on charges relating to mortgage fraud, one day after James Comey pleaded not guilty to charges brought in September. The New York AG emerged as a target for Trump after bringing a civil fraud lawsuit against him during the 2024 campaign. She’s not expected to be the last Trump enemy to face legal blowback, either. The president has been open about other foes he’d like the DOJ to press charges against; some people close to the White House tell Semafor they anticipate charges could soon be coming for his former adviser John Bolton, after the FBI said it found classified documents during a search of his office. Some Trump allies are skeptical the Justice Department will secure convictions, however.

— Shelby Talcott

The Senate’s non-shutdown shutdown

The impasse over government funding doesn’t extend to must-pass defense legislation, which the Senate passed last night. Lawmakers opted to include several standalone measures, including language that would lift sanctions on Syria (and require a subsequent report), revamp housing regulations, and scrutinize investments in China. Sen. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., lifted her opposition to the last proposal after senators assured her they would address technical concerns raised by Microsoft — one of her state’s largest employers — when they merge their bill with the House’s, a person familiar with the talks told Semafor. “The substance [will remain] the same: to increase transparency in terms of outbound investments into the PRC that develop weapons [and] help grow their economy,” Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, said. Senators may have a harder time getting aligned with House Republicans, who passed their bill without the China proposal in hopes of handing Trump a negotiating tool.

— Eleanor Mueller

Shadow economic data fills void

Alternative economic data is trickling in to fill the blind spots created by the suspension of data collection during the government shutdown — and broader doubts over the reliability of numbers put out under pressure from Trump.

So far, the substitutes are all over the map: Private investment firm Carlyle’s new jobs report, compiled from its 277 portfolio companies and 730,000 employees, shows the US added just 17,000 jobs in September. Payroll giant ADP says private companies cut 32,000 jobs last month, while Revelio, which scrapes online profiles and job postings, estimated a gain of more than 60,000. Meanwhile, the Chicago Fed’s new unemployment tracker “indicates some steadiness in the labor market,” the regional Fed’s president, Austan Goolsbee, said. More figures are coming today, as the University of Michigan prepares its monthly reading on consumer sentiment.

Weiss makes presence felt at CBS

CBS News editor-in-chief Bari Weiss is already making her presence felt, Semafor’s Max Tani reports. On Thursday, Weiss said during an editorial meeting that the network should lean heavily into the news of a major hostage and prisoner exchange deal between Israel and Hamas. She proposed a roundtable with three former secretaries of state, Hillary Clinton, Mike Pompeo, and Antony Blinken — not easy names to book — and began texting sources to set it up. The potential panel would be hosted by Norah O’Donnell, the former CBS Evening News anchor. Some staff have seen these bookings as an early win by Weiss, but her reputation as a pro-Israel voice has followed her: during Thursday’s morning editorial call, a producer emphasized that the network needed to hear from people in Gaza about the hostage deal — which prompted no response from Weiss, one staffer told Max.

Debatable: Ousting Maduro

The Trump administration’s military strikes on alleged drug boats off the coast of Venezuela are sparking questions about whether its ultimate goal is regime change — and whether that’s prudent for the US. The Hudson Institute’s Daniel Batlle argues that deposing Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro is the right call, but that Trump’s apparent strategy is flawed. “The administration may be seeking to pressure Maduro into making concessions, but its specific objectives remain ambiguous,” he says. Geoff Ramsey of the Atlantic Council thinks the administration would be better off pulling diplomatic levers to bring about a democratic transition in Venezuela. Trump and his aides have not publicly called for Maduro’s ouster, but The New York Times reported last month that administration officials are discussing removing him by way of a military campaign.

Alison Roman was one of digital media’s first food stars — she’s had recipes go viral since 2018 and an infamous “cancellation” in 2020. Now, with her latest cookbook, Something From Nothing, she’s trying to move away from life on the internet. This week, Ben and Max bring on the chef and author to talk about food media, the value of a physical cookbook in a digital world, and how AI is influencing her recipes. They also talk about why cooking, and her new book, are the “antithesis of the internet.”

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: With President Trump expected to head to the Middle East for talks, a deadlocked Washington may not be able to break the shutdown impasse without him. “He’s going to have to be involved because the Republicans just listen to him, nobody else,” said retiring Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich.

Axios: Trump provided a personal guarantee during Gaza negotiations that he wouldn’t allow Israel to abandon a peace deal and restart the war, a pledge that proved crucial in convincing Hamas to accept the agreement.

Playbook: “The two most consistently underestimated people by the establishment media in both Trump terms have been Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff,” according to one Republican close to the White House. “Getting this deal done was the ultimate f--k-you from both of them to their detractors.”

WaPo: Phase two of Trump’s Gaza peace plan will be impossible if Hamas continues to govern the enclave, according to former US ambassador to Israel Daniel Shapiro: “There is potential for backsliding, to return to armed conflict.”

White House

• President Trump’s Truth Social post instructing Attorney Gen. Pam Bondi to prosecute his enemies was meant to be a direct message to her, not a public post. — WSJ
• Paul Ingrassia, tap