As discussed above, Donald Trump’s pressure on India to reduce purchases of Russian crude oil could deprive Moscow of vital revenue, but it will mostly just push more Russian oil into an increasingly large shadow market.
India has become a major trade buyer of Russian oil since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It purchased 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russia’s crude in the first nine months of 2025, 40% of its total exports, according to the International Energy Agency.
This U.S. pressure on New Delhi comes as Kyiv has been striking Russia’s energy infrastructure.
Moreover, Trump appears to be focused once again on resolving the conflict in Ukraine after negotiating a ceasefire in Gaza. He announced last week that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin will be meeting for another summit after a “successful” phone call.
This all suggests that we may be entering a new stage in the West’s efforts to squeeze the Kremlin, so barring a breakthrough at the upcoming summit, the pressure on India to trim its Russian crude purchase is unlikely to let up.
India probably will acquiesce to U.S. pressure as part of a broad trade deal. Washington has already hit Indian goods with a 25% import tariff in retaliation for New Delhi’s purchases of Russian oil.
Indeed, some Indian refiners are already preparing to cut Russian oil imports, though any drop won’t be visible before December at the earliest.
Meanwhile, Indian refiners face another challenge. The European Union will impose a ban on imports of fuel refined from Russian crude as of January 21 next year. Europe accounts for over a third of India’s diesel and aviation fuel exports.
The new U.S. and EU measures will likely be financially painful for India's refineries, as they have been enjoying healthy margins by buying Russian crude at significant discounts to international prices.
China to the rescue?
But let’s assume that India can severely cut its Russian oil purchases, even if it can’t reduce them to zero. What would happen to the Russian crude volumes India stops buying?
First, Chinese refiners may opt to increase their purchases, particularly if the discount with international prices widens. But China will not want to significantly increase its reliance on Russian oil, particularly since Trump is also pressing Beijing on the matter.
Any remaining Russian barrels will thus likely move into the rapidly growing shadow market.
