Good morning. Donald Trump is having a great time in Japan. We take a look at what’s at stake when he meets with Xi Jinping. And New York City’s mafia families are doing the unthinkable: teaming up. Listen to the day’s top stories.

— Hellmuth Tromm

Big in Japan. Donald Trump hailed the US’s alliance with Japan, pledging “anything you want, any favors you need, anything I can do to help Japan, we will be there.” He praised new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on her plans to ratchet up defense spending as the pair met in Tokyo and said he wants to work with Japan on shipbuilding to counter China’s growing dominance. 

Taking a breather. The record-breaking rally in stocks faltered as investors wait for earnings reports from US megacap tech companies, as well the Federal Reserve’s rate decision tomorrow. But equity bulls are undeterred. They’re lining up to wager the S&P 500 will surge past the 7,000 level. Gold prices are still sliding though, dropping further below $4,000 an ounce, while oil slipped.

There’s no end to the shutdown. Key Senate Democrats resisted a call by the American Federation of Government Employees to shelve their health care demands and reopen the US government. Some are concerned Trump will simply fire more federal workers once the government reopens, after a federal judge on Oct. 15 ordered the administration to pause plans to fire thousands of people.

Speaking of job cuts, Amazon announced it will slash about 14,000 corporate role in a major restructuring, fewer than the 30,000 reported by Reuters yesterday. Paramount Skydance is said to be starting a major round of layoffs tomorrow, with 1,000 positions at stake—and a second round coming later.

The Kingston waterfront on Ocean Boulevard as Jamaica starts to feel the effects of Hurricane Melissa on Oct. 26. Photographer: Ricardo Makyn/AFP/Getty Images

Jamaica is bracing for Hurricane Melissa, which is expected to make landfall early today with a life-threatening storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) and winds likely to cause “total structural failure.” If it maintains strength, Melissa will be the first confirmed Category 5 storm — the highest on the Saffir-Simpson scale — ever to hit the island. Follow Melissa's path with our hurricane tracker and learn more about why its "dirty side" poses such a threat.

Deep Dive: What’s It All About?

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, left, and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng at the US-China trade talks in London on June 9, 2025. Photographer: Xinhua News Agency/Xinhua News Agency

If Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet as planned on Thursday, the world will be watching to see whether they strike a long-awaited trade deal and put an end to months of escalating threats. 

• A comprehensive and long-lasting agreement is unlikely as the US and China have a number of unresolved issues, including tariffs, trade deficits, and security concerns.
• Beijing’s main bargaining chip is its dominance in the global rare-earth supply chain. Even if there is a deal, producers outside of China are eager to expand, betting the world won’t want to risk going back to one dominant supplier.
• Trump’s also looking to foreign allies. The US and Japan signed an agreement to deepen cooperation on critical minerals, adding the Asian country to Washington’s push to reduce its reliance on China.
• But it’s not just about rare earths. China is increasingly challenging for dominance in developing the next generation of nuclear reactors, according to tech billionaire Bill Gates.
• Listen to this podcast on China’s rare earths power play. 

The Big Take

Evercore Private Capital Global Head Nigel Dawn at the Evercore offices in NY, on October 1, 2025. Photographer: Krisanne Johnson/Bloomberg

Evercore’s rainmaker. Nigel Dawn is leading a $200 billion boom in the private-equity secondaries market, which lets investors offload unwanted fund stakes. While some call secondaries mere financial engineering, Dawn argues they’re unlocking liquidity in an otherwise stalled deals market.

Opinion

Want a Rolex this year? It’ll cost you as Donald Trump’s shock tariff on Swiss-made imports to the US is pushing up prices for luxury watches, Andrea Felsted writes. Try Cartier or Jaeger Le-Coultre instead as some brands still offer deals on the secondary market for buyers prepared to forego the best-known names and models.

Our daily word puzzle with a plot twist.

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Photographs of bosses, underbosses, capos and soldiers in New York’s five organized crime families. Photographer: Marianne Barcellona/Getty Images

Keeping it in the families. For decades, New York’s Mafia acted like rival hedge funds, each guarding its own market share. Now, they’re more like a network of family offices. Brooklyn prosecutors have outlined