Bill Gates wants investors and governments to put more money into protecting lives on a warmer planet. In a lengthy memo, he lays out his current view of the climate problem and concludes that “human welfare” must be the top priority.

Meanwhile, the first-ever decline in global emissions is just around the corner, the UN says. By 2035, they’ll have fallen 10% from 2019 levels, an unequivocal sign that humanity is bending the curve and cutting the greenhouse gas pollution that’s baking the planet. 

The data made public today would be cause for major celebration if it wasn’t for the fact that it’s not nearly close to what scientists say is needed to avoid catastrophic climate change — a 60% decline by 2035. 

We also have the latest on hurricane Melissa as it approaches Jamaica. 

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By Olivia Rudgard

Bill Gates, the billionaire philanthropist and co-founder of Microsoft Corp., says it’s time to adopt a more measured tone when addressing climate change and the threat it poses to the world.

In a memo published on Tuesday, he called out what he characterized as a “doomsday view of climate change.”

According to Gates, who has long stood out as a vocal defender of the need to fight global warming, prioritizing the fight against rising temperatures above all else means that issues such as human health and equality risk being overshadowed.

Gates. Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg

“Climate change is serious, but we’ve made great progress,” he said in the memo. “We need to keep backing the breakthroughs that will help the world reach zero emissions. But we can’t cut funding for health and development — programs that help people stay resilient in the face of climate change — to do it.”

The upshot, Gates says, is that it’s now “time to put human welfare at the center of our climate strategies, which includes reducing the green premium to zero and improving agriculture and health in poor countries.”

Gates, who this year laid off some staff at his climate group, Breakthrough Energy, warned that the doomsday outlook has led climate advocates to focus too narrowly on near-term emissions goals, diverting resources away from more effective solutions to improve life on a hotter planet. He said the United Nations climate summit starting in Brazil next month, COP30, should seek to focus on how best to adapt to reality and ensure human welfare is a priority.

“This is a chance to refocus on the metric that should count even more than emissions and temperature change: improving lives,” Gates said. “COP30 is taking place at a time when it’s especially important to get the most value out of every dollar spent on helping the poorest.”

The billionaire said he’s aware his comments will draw criticism from some climate advocates, and underlined his concern that he still acknowledges that climate change “needs to be solved.” He also said his view on the matter has been informed by his work with the Gates Foundation, whose top priority is health and development in poor countries.

“Sometimes the world acts as if any effort to fight climate change is as worthwhile as any other,” Gates said. “As a result, less-effective projects are diverting money and attention from efforts that will have more impact on the human condition: namely, making it affordable to eliminate all greenhouse gas emissions and reducing extreme poverty with improvements in agriculture and health.”

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UN forecasts first-ever emissions decline

By Laura Millan and John Ainger

Global emissions of planet-warming greenhouse gases are expected to fall by about 10% by 2035, compared with 1990 levels, representing the first decline ever forecast by the United Nations. But the world remains well off course to keeping global warming below the 1.5C leaders committed to when they signed the Paris Agreement a decade ago.

“Humanity is now clearly bending the emissions curve downwards for the first time, although still not nearly fast enough,” Simon Stiell, executive secretary at the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), said on Tuesday. “We have a serious need for more speed.”

Simon Stiell Photographer: Hollie Adams/Bloomberg

Carbon emissions are already impacting people’s lives and economies, with drought, storms and heat waves killing thousands and causing billions of dollars in economic losses every year. Addressing the gap between current emissions levels and where scientists say they should be is a herculean challenge facing countries at the COP30 climate summit in Brazil next month.

The decline predicted by the UN is based on promises made by countries representing about 80% of global emissions. It falls well short of the 60% cut by 2035 that scientists say is needed to keep warming close to 1.5C by the end of the century and avoid catastrophic climate change.

On Tuesday, the UNFCCC also released its NDC Synthesis Report, based on countries’ detailed plans known as Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs. The Paris Agreement says NDCs must be lodged every five years, and a round of submissions was due in 2025. But only 64 countries — representing about a third of global emissions — submitted them by Sept. 30, in time for the UN to make the calculations necessary to produce the report.

Beijing’s Forbidden City shrouded in smog  Bloomberg

China, the world’s biggest polluter, has set a target to cut economy-wide net greenhouse gas emissions by 7% to 10% over the next decade, but it hasn’t yet formally submitted that goal to the UN. The European Union is aiming to find consensus among its 27 member states on its plan on Nov. 4 — too late for the synthesis report but in time for COP30. India hasn’t signaled when it will deliver its NDC.

Brazil, the UK and Norway were among the countries whose climate pledges were included. There’s also a US plan submitted under former President Joe Biden. But that’s unlikely to be implemented under current President Donald Trump.

The 64 NDCs analyzed may result in a reduction in emissions of 17% by 2035 from 2019 levels. If their plans are implemented, the group of countries’ emissions would peak before 2030 and then fall sharply after 2035, and most of the nations would reach net zero by 2050 — all necessary steps to avoid dangerous warming.

Read the full story on Bloomberg.com and subscribe for more breaking news on climate.

Emissions milestone

A new era

By Joe Wertz

The Kingston Waterfront, ahead of Hurricane Melissa’s landfall, on Oct. 27, 2025. Photographer: Ricardo Makyn/AFP/AFP

Jamaican officials urged residents to brace for Hurricane Melissa as it tracked toward the island at Category 5 strength, packing intense rains and winds and threatening to cause widespread destruction.

Melissa’s top winds are holding at 175 miles (282 kilometers) per hour, the US National Hurricane Center said in an advisory at 8 a.m. New York time.

The storm’s winds are likely to cause “total structural failure,” the center said. That’s especially true for higher-elevation areas exposed to the brunt of the storm, where wind speeds could register as much as 30% stronger. The storm, currently about 55 miles southwest of Jamaica's east coast, is forecast to dump as much as 40 inches (102 centimeters) of rain across parts of the country.

Read the full story on Bloomberg.com and subscribe to the Weather Watch newsletter to get updates on weather events straight into your inbox.

Mazama Energy’s drill site in Oregon. Photographer: Mazama Energy

A startup backed by billionaire Vinod Khosla says it has successfully drilled into the hottest rock ever reached by an enhanced geothermal energy system.

Geothermal energy companies have seen an uptick in investment as tech companies look to power the artificial intelligence boom. That includes startups like Mazama Energy Inc., which is developing unconventional techniques to tap new sources of energy. The project is the first step to harnessing what are known as superhot rocks to generate continuous carbon-free energy.

Read the full story on Bloomberg.com

Europe’s solar boom is getting more difficult to manage and operators say they lack the tools they need to balance out the effects of solar. Getting it wrong or failing to act has severe consequences like the lights going out.

The EU is in discussions with the first anchor investors for a €5 billion fund that will back companies on the continent working on quantum computing, artificial intelligence, and other strategic technologies.

Gates also warned that China is increasingly challenging the US and other countries for nuclear power dominance.

A red star is removed from the top of a factory in Budapest on Oct. 26 1989. Photographer: P.E VARKONYI/AFP

From trade wars to skyrocketing tech valuations, governments and investors seem to be making economically irrational moves. As the world heads into another global climate summit, there is a need for fresh thinking to bring countries back to work on the urgent challenge of climate change. This week on Zero, political economist Abby Innes tells Akshat Rathi what governments are getting wrong about addressing the problems we face and how to reimagine economics for the climate era.

Listen now, and subscribe on Apple, Spotify or YouTube to get new episodes of Zero every Thursday.

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