“Republican Youngkin wins Virginia governor’s race in blow to Democrats,” ran NBC’s headline. “Key takeaways from bad night for Biden” announced the BBC. “Glenn Youngkin’s victory is a warning for Democrats,” the New Yorker intoned ominously, while the AP added that the evening was a “major political turnabout in a state that had been trending increasingly blue.”
In November 2021 the press analysis was unified — Glenn Youngkin’s victory in the Virginia governor’s race was a major setback for Democrats, indicating that President Biden’s handling of covid-era school closures and support for LGBT youth had alienated the public. A Trumpish platform without Trump was declared broadly successful and journalists predicted a Democratic midterm wipeout.
Many of these kneejerk judgements don’t hold up in retrospect. Democrats had a very strong midterms in 2022 and, longer term, Trump unfortunately was not gone from the Republican Party or public life. But the press was at least fairly consistent.
Strong out-party showings in off-year Virginia and New Jersey contests are often read as a negative referendum on the president in power. In that tradition, a powerful performance this Tuesday could help break the feverish doom loop of Democratic self-recrimination and elite capitulation which has contributed to our flatulent descent into fascist thuggery, hate, and mass death.
As we approach Tuesday’s election, then, those who hope for some traction against Trump face two questions: Will anti-Trump forces have a good night? And, will it matter?
Tailwinds
As the legendary polling analyst Yoda wisely notes, the future always in motion is. Still, with that caveat, it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that Tuesday looks pretty darn good for Democrats.
Trump’s popularity is the lowest in his career by some metrics. The Economist last week showed him a record 19 points underwater, lower than he ever was in his first term, with 39 percent approving and 58 percent disapproving.
