Good morning. Andrew here in London with some of the DealBook team across the pond, Michael de la Merced and Bernhard Warner. There’s big M.&A. news this morning: Kimberly-Clark will buy Kenvue, the maker of Tylenol, for more than $40 billion. We’ve got the details (and some questions). We’re also taking a look at the big showdown at the Supreme Court this week: The government will seek to defend President Trump’s authority to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. We’ve got a rundown of the arguments and the implications of the court’s decision. Also, what’s the Fed going to do next month? We take a look at the state of play. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here.)
A legal showdownS&P 500 futures are up this morning after the benchmark index notched its sixth straight month of gains. Corporate profits are holding steady, as is consumer spending. All of that shows an economy that so far has appeared to defy pessimistic forecasts related to President Trump’s trade barrage, as corporate America has found ways to minimize the impact. That dynamic will be worth watching this week as the Supreme Court scrutinizes Trump’s trade policy. What’s happening: The administration will defend the president’s authority to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The government raised $195 billion in customs revenues in the 2025 fiscal year, according to the Treasury Department — a more than threefold jump from the previous year. Businesses and trade groups have filed dozens of briefs with the court, arguing that the measures should be overturned. “The current administration’s use of IEEPA to impose virtually unbounded tariffs is not only unprecedented but is causing irreparable harm,” the U.S. Chamber of Commerce wrote in a court filing last month in support of the defendants. Even some Republican senators are beginning to rebel against his tariffs as well. But the prospect of tariff relief faces tough odds. The IEEPA, enacted in 1977, doesn’t mention the word tariff, and lower courts have ruled that Trump’s use of them is illegal. But the Supreme Court, which has a conservative majority, has often sided with Trump and his view of executive authority. And this case will hinge on whether presidents have the power to impose tariffs unilaterally to avert an emergency. In Trump’s view, the trade deficit is the emergency. He and his advisers have argued that the White House can get around congressional authority over tariffs as a foreign policy tool to rewrite the rules around global trade. Pro-market types may despise the tariffs, but Trump sees them as a lifeline. The president, who had suggested that he would attend the hearing in person only to back off that idea yesterday, called the case on social media “one of the most important in the History of the Country.” “If a President was not able to quickly and nimbly use the power of Tariffs,” he added in the post, “we would be defenseless, leading perhaps even to the ruination of our Nation.” A loss wouldn’t completely unwind the Trump agenda. IEEPA tariffs account for roughly half of the tariff revenue that the government has so far collected in the 2025 fiscal year, Deutsche Bank estimated in a research note this morning. And the president has other tariff powers at his disposal, including those allowed under other trade laws.
Kimberly-Clark agrees to buy Kenvue for over $40 billion in stock and cash. The deal will unite two consumer products giants: Kimberly owns Huggies, Kleenex and Cottonelle, while Kenvue owns Aveeno, Listerine and Neutrogena. Kenvue, a spinoff from Johnson & Johnson, has recently had to defend itself against claims by the Trump administration of a link between the use of Tylenol during pregnancy and autism, a connection that is unproven. Pfizer sues Novo Nordisk to block its bid for an obesity drug start-up. Both drug makers have been competing for Metsera, whose weight-loss treatment has generated high hopes among Wall Street analysts. They have jousted over the start-up since early last year; Metsera recently declared an $8.5 billion bid from Novo Nordisk to be superior to one from Pfizer. OPEC Plus takes a cautious approach to production. The oil cartel said that it would increase its output by 137,000 barrels a day starting next month, but that it would pause for the first quarter of 2026, when demand for crude traditionally drops. OPEC Plus faces a series of other challenges, including questions about future exports from Russia and tension between the Trump administration and Venezuela. Earnings and Elon Musk’s pay are in focus this week. It’s another busy stretch of earnings season with Shopify and Apollo Global Management reporting tomorrow, and Novo Nordisk, McDonald’s and Robinhood on Wednesday. On Thursday, Tesla shareholders will vote on Musk’s compensation package, which could pay him nearly $1 trillion if the electric vehicle maker were to hit a series of milestones. More Fed fireworksTraders aren’t buying the latest warning by Jay Powell, the Fed chair, not to rely on another interest rate cut this year. Odds of a quarter-point reduction at the December meeting of the central bank’s rate-setting meeting sit at nearly 70 percent. Several influential Trump associates are piling on the pressure as well. “I think we are in good shape, but I think that there are sectors of the economy that are in recession,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNN’s Jake Tapper yesterday, arguing that high borrowing costs were taking a toll. That echoes the view of Stephen Miran, a former White House economic adviser who is now the Fed’s newest governor. He warned in a Times interview last week that “if you keep policy this tight for a long period of time, then you run the risk that monetary policy itself is inducing a recession.” Powell doesn’t see it that way. He said last week that the economy was in decent shape, bolstered by consumer spending. But he noted that inflation was running above the Fed’s 2 percent target while the labor market was cooling. All of that and the shutdown-related data blackout have scrambled the Fed’s rate-setting calculus. Investors were rattled when Powell said that “strongly differing views” among policy members meant that another cut was “not a foregone conclusion.” Miran is a major dissenter, arguing for a jumbo-size half-point cut last week. Other Trump policies are weighing on the Fed. Market watchers are closely watching how the fallout from tariffs and the administration’s immigration crackdown affect the economy. Those moves will probably lead to “sticky inflation,” Holger Schmieding, an economist at Berenberg, predicted this morning, giving the Fed “limited room to cut rates.” Miran disagrees with that view, too. “I’m not concerned about inflation on the upside,” he told The Times, arguing that there is more risk in keeping rates higher for longer. Either way, the bond market has been jumpy. Since the Fed meeting, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has soared, hovering around 4.1 percent this morning, as investors grow jittery about the central bank’s next move.
The mystery donors to Trump’s new ballroomThe demolition of the East Wing of the White House to make way for a ballroom has been among the biggest talking points in Washington in recent weeks. President Trump has made clear that private donations, including from himself, would fund the project, and last month the administration released a list of donors. But The Times’s Ken Vogel reports that there are still several benefactors that haven’t been disclosed by the administration. They include:
More from Vogel’s report: Mr. Trump’s fund-raisers have been circulating a pledge form, a copy of which was obtained by The Times, seeking contributions for the ballroom, which gives donors the option of withholding their identities from public disclosure. Such donations could remain anonymous in perpetuity, as the funds are being raised and managed by the Trust for the National Mall, a nonprofit registered under a section of the tax code for charities that provides benefits for donors including the ability to claim tax deductions and to keep their identities anonymous. A White House official said in a statement that the identities of donors “who wish to be named publicly” will be disclosed, but that “donors also have the option to remain anonymous and we will honor that if that’s what they choose.” Ethics experts have raised concerns about the donations, including the possibility that they could lead to special treatment for donors or test the bounds of a prohibition on federal agencies accepting gifts from private sources. Mr. Trump has said he would supplement outside donations with his own money, and has cast the effort to build the ballroom as an apolitical, selfless act to address a lack of space inside the White House for some official dinners. Many of the donors have business before the administration, Vogel writes, including Nvidia, which wants to sell advanced chips to China (but may have hit a roadblock in doing so); Comcast, which is said to be exploring a bid for Warner Bros. Discovery assets (and has been a target of Trump’s ire); and Yass, an influential donor whose firm is a major shareholder in TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance. We hope you’ve enjoyed this newsletter, which is made possible through subscriber support. Subscribe to The New York Times.
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