Washington, DC

1. Shutdown endgame
2. Syria sanctions debate
3. Trump floats tariff checks
4. Govt trust plummets
5. Ukraine’s fragile grid
6. US’ G20 boycott

Washington View: What Trump likes about Mamdani

Trump swears in Gor as US ambassador to India … Newsom attends COP30 … S&P 500 futures ⬆️ 0.9%

Senate advances deal to end shutdown

An end to the record-breaking government shutdown is in sight, after a bipartisan agreement overcame its first big hurdle despite pushback from a wide array of Democrats. Eight senators who caucus with Democrats voted with Republicans late Sunday to advance what they called “the only deal on the table,” which packages three full-year appropriations bills with an extension of all other funding levels plus protections for federal workers through Jan. 30. Senate Republicans separately guaranteed a vote on a Democrat-approved extension of enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies by mid-December. “Hopefully we’ll negotiate … something that’s really going to make [Republicans] squirm,” Sen. John Hickenlooper, D-Colo., told Semafor. If it doesn’t pass, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., said, “everybody will consider” voting against another extension come January. Still, Democrats in both chambers panned the compromise, including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., called it “a policy and political disaster.”

— Eleanor Mueller

Challenge to Syria sanctions repeal

House Foreign Affairs Chair Brian Mast, R-Fla., is refusing to greenlight the repeal of Caesar Act sanctions on Syria even as the White House puts its full weight behind it, people familiar with the talks told Semafor. The US lifted other restrictions on President Ahmed al-Sharaa ahead of his meeting with President Donald Trump today. Mast, whose sign-off is needed to include a Senate-passed proposal in annual defense legislation, told Semafor he “will not negotiate in the media” but “my concerns with a clean repeal of Caesar sanctions should be obvious to everybody.” A senior administration official said the Trump administration “supports the full repeal of the Caesar Act,” calling it “key to allow US business and regional states to operate.” Trump’s special envoy for Syria, Tom Barrack, has called at least half a dozen lawmakers to advocate for the policy change.

— Eleanor Mueller

Trump floats plan for $2,000 tariff checks

As the Supreme Court threatens to derail his tariff regime, Trump is re-upping a proposal he first floated earlier this year: Sending a $2,000 tariff dividend check to all Americans, minus high earners. “People that are against tariffs are FOOLS!” the president wrote on Truth Social Sunday in a post mentioning the check proposal. The idea is a sign of his growing unease over the Supreme Court’s deliberations. Trump didn’t go into details of the proposal, and the White House may still have some work to do: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday that he hasn’t yet spoken to Trump about the plan, and suggested the dividend could come in the form of “tax decreases.” Trump would likely need Congress’ help to advance the idea, which could prove difficult as some Republicans hope the Supreme Court limits the president’s widespread tariffs agenda.

— Shelby Talcott

Government trust nears five-decade low

Americans’ trust in each of the three branches of government is near a five-decade low, as opinions of the federal government grow more polarized. Only 32% of US adults have a “great deal” or “fair amount” of trust in the legislative branch, according to new Gallup polling, while 41% say the same of the executive branch and 49% of the judicial branch. Meanwhile, 45% trust the federal government to handle international challenges, while only 38% trust the government to handle domestic issues. While on par with readings from last year, when President Joe Biden was in office, partisans’ views shifted substantially with the change in party control. Republicans’ trust in the executive branch, for instance, increased 83 percentage points this year after Trump took office, while Democrats’ trust dropped 78 points and independents’ trust ticked up three points.

Major Russian attack on Ukraine energy

With no end in sight to the war, Ukraine is bracing for a long winter. A major Russian attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure spawned outages across its cities over the weekend, disrupting electricity, water and heat for some 100,000 Ukrainian citizens. Kyiv retaliated with strikes that caused blackouts in two Russian border cities. The attacks offer a preview of what’s to come as Russia zeroes in on energy targets and the weather gets colder. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of “terrorist attacks” on Ukraine’s energy grid, telling The Guardian: “He can’t create tension within our society in any other way.” In Washington, the government shutdown is wearing on US support for Europe, with Axios reporting that it has delayed sales of $5 billion in weapons to NATO allies and Ukraine.

S. Africa calls US G20 boycott ‘regrettable’

South Africa’s government is pushing back — lightly — after Trump said no US officials would attend this month’s G20 summit in South Africa, citing what he called “human rights abuses” against white Afrikaners in the country. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s government described Trump’s announcement as “regrettable” and dismissed his claims as baseless and inflammatory. In a Friday Truth Social post, Trump said it is a “total disgrace” that South Africa is set to host the G20 gathering — the first time the high-powered event will be held on the continent. While it has long been discussed in Washington that Trump himself would not attend the event, Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio had been expected to show. Trump had a high-profile clash with Ramaphosa in May over unsubstantiated claims of “white genocide” in South Africa.

— Yinka Adegoke

In the days before Zohran Mamdani’s victory, I heard a telling phrase from Washington’s MAGA political class: “Game recognize game.”

The context of this observation was Trump’s begrudging fondness for “my little Communist,” as he labeled the New York City Mayor-elect. By Nov. 5, the line was in the mouth of the MAGA zeitgeister Steve Bannon, who told his followers on War Room: “Game respects game.”

The notes of celebration in the White House reaction to Mamdani reflect something real. Trump and his circle disdain the Bush-Ryan-Romney Republican Establishment and Clinton-Schumer-Jeffries Democratic Establishment in equal measure.

And they’re eager to join a battle on the other side of the horseshoe, where left-wing and right-wing populists share a diagnosis that the American and global systems are fully discredited, and are ready to fight it out for a new world order.

The world’s biggest climate and energy decisions are being made this week at COP30. Semafor Energy editor Tim McDonnell is on the ground, tracking every key moment, meeting, and deal shaping the next chapter of global policy. Get an insider look at what world leaders are debating — and how the energy transition will be impacted — in this week’s editions of Semafor Energy.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: “After 40 days, it wasn’t gonna work,” Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., said of the Democrats’ shutdown strategy.

Axios: Liberal grassroots group chats were ablaze last night after moderate Democratic senators voted for the shutdown deal. “People are p*ssed,” one progressive House Democrat said.

WaPo: “This deal isn’t a compromise. It’s surrender,” one progressive activist said.

Playbook: Seventy-one percent of Americans are concerned about health care subsidies ending, according to a poll by Stack Data Strategy.

White House

• President Trump nominated John Coale, his former lawyer, to serve as special envoy to Belarus.
• Trump pardoned a long list of prominent allies, including Rudy Giuliani and Mark Meadows; no one on the list has been charged with a federal crime. — Politico

Congress

• Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, R-Fla., said House Speaker Mike Johnson told her the bill to ban lawmakers from trading stocks would be marked up.

Outside the Beltway

• After the Supreme Court stayed orders forcing the federal government to pay out SNAP benefits on Friday, the USDA ordered states to “undo” full payments to recipients or face consequences. Democratic governors resisted: “No,” was Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers’ reply.