Tuesday's tech-led stocks jump on a likely reopening of U.S. government displayed dogged "buy-the-dip" behavior.

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Morning Bid U.S.

Morning Bid U.S.

A Reuters Open Interest newsletter

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

 

By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Financial Industry and Financial Markets, Reuters Open Interest 

 

Tuesday's tech-led Wall Street jump on a likely reopening of the U.S. government displayed dogged "buy-the-dip" behavior, but the move has run out of steam into today's Veterans Day holiday.

I'll get into all the market-moving news below.

In today's column, I look at whether centrists on the Federal Reserve's policymaking committee are turning more hawkish and making the case for a policy pause next month.

I’d love to hear from you, so please reach out to me at mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com. 

 
 

Data refreshes every time you open this email. For more U.S. market news, click here. Please send any feedback to morningbid@thomsonreuters.com.

 

Today's Market Minute

  • The U.S. Senate on Monday approved a compromise that would end the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, breaking a weeks-long stalemate that has disrupted food benefits for millions, left hundreds of thousands of federal workers unpaid and snarled air traffic.
  • U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened legal action against the BBC for its editing of a speech he made in 2021 on the day his supporters overran the Capitol, which the British broadcaster admitted on Monday was an "error of judgement".
  • SoftBank Group Chief Executive Masayoshi Son's "all in" bet on OpenAI appears to be paying dividends after the ChatGPT-maker's valuation soared this year, producing a surge in quarterly profit for the Japanese technology investor.
  • The Trump administration scored a surprise win-win this year, as Wall Street boomed while the dollar fizzled. But ROI markets columnist Jamie McGeever argues that a repeat next year is unlikely as the root of that sweet spot, dollar hedging, may be missing.
  • Oil prices have oscillated in a relatively narrow range in recent months. While this may be a sweet spot for U.S. President Donald Trump, it is a ‘no man’s land’ for oil producers, writes ROI energy columnist Ron Bousso.
 

Tech bounce stalls

With its quarterly results due out next week, the world's most valuable company Nvidia bounced 6% on Tuesday as the U.S. Senate passed a key bill to fund government through the end of January - moving the procedure to the House this week. 

The tech sector and megacaps led the S&P500's 1.5% surge while the Nasdaq rallied more than 2%. AI data analytics firm Palantir jumped 9% and Tesla climbed 4%.

Still, the moves only reclaimed about two thirds of the 6% Nasdaq drop and 15% Nvidia swoon seen over the past two weeks.     

And futures have stalled into today's open.

Nvidia-backed CoreWeave's shares dropped more than 7% overnight after it trimmed its annual revenue forecast, taking the shine off a strong September quarter driven by demand for AI cloud services.

And as Japan's SoftBank reported more than a doubling of quarterly profits to 2.5 trillion yen ($16.6 billion), driven by valuation gains in its OpenAI holdings, it said it sold the remainder of its shares in Nvidia for almost $6 billion.

SoftBank has been a repeat investor in Nvidia, selling its investment before the AI boom took off and then buying the chip giant's shares again before divesting in October.

More broadly, Japanese government data showed domestic investors sold significant amounts of foreign stocks last month to lock in profits from the AI-fuelled rally.

With Treasury markets closed today, the dollar was firmer - probing six-month highs against the yen after Monday's broadside from new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi against Bank of Japan tightening as she loosened fiscal policy rules more broadly.

In Britain, UK government bond yields and the pound fell sharply on news that the unemployment rate there jumped to four-year highs and wage growth slowed - bolstering speculation that the Bank of England will cut interest rates again next month.

 
 

AI clouds up the economic dashboard

A torrent of delayed U.S. economic data is set to hit over the next month as the government reopens following its longest shutdown on record, but a growing number of Federal Reserve officials doubt the numbers will show the sort of weakness required to cut rates again this year.

After more than 40 days without official economic data, Fed officials seem to be leaning toward the view that the labor market has held up reasonably well, financial conditions remain loose and above-target inflation is going in the wrong direction.

So unless there is a major surprise in the delayed data about to be released, the case for the third interest rate cut of the year is weakening fast. Even though futures still price roughly a two-thirds chance of another cut in December, that may well prove overly optimistic.  

Read the full column
 

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