Plus, Japan’s big India bet

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Auto File

Auto File

By Nick Carey, European Autos Correspondent

 

Greetings from London!

After weeks of mounting concern across the auto sector about a repeat of the pandemic-era semiconductor shortage, there are growing signs that the crisis surrounding Dutch chipmaker Nexperia may soon be over.

Some Nexperia chip shipments have resumed and China’s commerce ministry said on Sunday that it had granted exemptions for exports of the company’s chips for civilian use. If the chips do keep flowing, this could help automakers avoid production shutdowns.  

But the dispute over the Dutch government’s takeover of Nexperia last month from Chinese owner Wingtech still needs to be resolved. The Netherlands and China are holding talks, but until they come to an agreement the risk of further supply chain disruptions remains.

Which brings us to today’s Auto File…

Today

  • Musk’s big Tesla tasks
  • Japanese automakers go big in India
  • Rivian’s Musk play
 
 

Tesla must sell a lot more of these - REUTERS/Annegret Hilse.

Musk’s car sales challenge

As expected, Tesla investors approved CEO Elon Musk’s proposed $1 trillion pay package, in what experts described as a referendum on whether traditional corporate-governance rules apply to the world's richest person.

Now the question is whether Musk can hit the targets to get that payout. Over the next decade, Tesla has to deliver 20 million vehicles, have 1 million robotaxis in operation, sell 1 million robots and earn as much as $400 billion in core profit. Tesla's stock value also has to rise in tandem, all the way to $8.5 trillion from $1.5 trillion now.

As of now, the toughest of those material targets is selling 20 million cars. Though Tesla is years behind Musk’s earlier predictions for self-driving cars, 1 million doesn’t seem impossible, while predicting a decade’s worth of sales for robots that are not yet on the market is tough at best.

But Tesla’s car sales are a mess. Sales in China fell 35.8% in October to hit a three-year low. Tesla has fared badly in the European markets that have reported October sales so far – and through September, its pan-European sales fell 28.5%. And the end of the $7,500 U.S. EV tax credit will make life harder in Tesla’s home market.

Tesla’s car sales challenges remain the same. Setting aside Musk’s unpopularity with a lot of consumers, the EV maker has a small, ageing lineup at a time when rivals in China and Europe are launching a lot of swanky new models, many of them cheaper than Tesla’s.

Some of the grim October sales numbers in Europe highlight Tesla’s problems. In Denmark, Tesla was outsold by several Chinese EV brands, including BYD, Xpeng  and Geely's Zeekr. In Spain, its sales were dwarfed by SAIC's MG brand, BYD and Chery's Omoda and Jaecoo brands.

Tesla was not just outsold by mainstream brands in Sweden, but also luxury German automaker Porsche  – which is also not having a good year.

Fixing Tesla’s core car sales problems will take time and a lot of money. But hey, it’s worth a go for $1 trillion.

 

Essential Reading

  • Higher U.S. port fees for autos
  • China revamping rare earth licenses
  • China suspends port fees on U.S. vessels
 
 

Honda wants to sell more of these in India - REUTERS/Anushree Fadnavis.

Japan’s India pivot

Japanese automakers Toyota, Honda and Suzuki are investing large sums in India on new factories and new cars as they seek to cut their reliance on China for supplies.

As Reuters colleagues Aditi Shah, Daniel Leussink and Maki Shiraki report, Toyota and Suzuki have announced a total of $11 billion in investments to boost manufacturing and export capabilities in the world's third-largest auto market. You can read more about it here.

India's low costs and vast labour pool are attractive for automakers, but the country has another key advantage for Japanese manufacturers: India remains all but closed to Chinese EVs. So, for now, Japan's carmakers won't face bruising competition from BYD and others there.

 
 

$4.6 billion for RJ Scaringe? - REUTERS/Joel Angel Juarez. 

Rivian’s Musk move

A day after Tesla investors approved Musk's $1 trillion pay package, U.S. EV maker Rivian said it had approved a plan that could pay CEO RJ Scaringe as much as $4.6 billion over the next decade.

Only a couple of years ago, that would have seemed an impossibly large sum of money. But Musk’s package makes anything else look modest by comparison.

As Reuters colleagues Abhirup Roy, Akash Sriram and Ross Kerber report, the Rivian plan replaces one with higher targets that the board said was not likely to be met and comes at a tough time for the EV maker. You can read more about it here.

The end of the U.S. EV tax credits will hit Rivian’s sales this year and the hefty package was approved as Rivian has been doubling down on cost cutting.

The company recently laid off about 600 employees, or 4.5% of its workforce. Meanwhile, Rivian's board also doubled Scaringe's base salary to $2 million.

 

Renault leans on China

As part of its plans for a new generation of rare-earth free EV motors Renault has ditched French supplier Valeo and is seeking a Chinese supplier instead to provide stators – the fixed part of a motor that houses the rotor.

As Reuters colleague Gilles Guillaume reports, the main driver for the decision is the need to cut costs. You can read more here.  

Renault is the smallest of Europe’s mainstream automakers and has to find ways to cut the cost of going electric. Increasingly, that means relying on China. The French automaker’s new electric Twingo, for instance, was designed in China to cut both costs and development time.

With the pressure on for affordable EVs, Renault may soon be hunting for more Chinese suppliers.

 

Fast Laps

Toyota’s planned buyout of its unit Toyota Industries will likely face more hurdles after activist investor Elliott Investment Management said it had bought a significant stake in the forklift manufacturer.

The heads of Tesla's Cybertruck and Model Y programs both announced they were leaving the U.S. EV maker.

The ongoing crisis at German luxury carmaker Porsche AG hit earnings at top shareholder