As expected, Tesla investors approved CEO Elon Musk’s proposed $1 trillion pay package, in what experts described as a referendum on whether traditional corporate-governance rules apply to the world's richest person.
Now the question is whether Musk can hit the targets to get that payout. Over the next decade, Tesla has to deliver 20 million vehicles, have 1 million robotaxis in operation, sell 1 million robots and earn as much as $400 billion in core profit. Tesla's stock value also has to rise in tandem, all the way to $8.5 trillion from $1.5 trillion now.
As of now, the toughest of those material targets is selling 20 million cars. Though Tesla is years behind Musk’s earlier predictions for self-driving cars, 1 million doesn’t seem impossible, while predicting a decade’s worth of sales for robots that are not yet on the market is tough at best.
But Tesla’s car sales are a mess. Sales in China fell 35.8% in October to hit a three-year low. Tesla has fared badly in the European markets that have reported October sales so far – and through September, its pan-European sales fell 28.5%. And the end of the $7,500 U.S. EV tax credit will make life harder in Tesla’s home market.
Tesla’s car sales challenges remain the same. Setting aside Musk’s unpopularity with a lot of consumers, the EV maker has a small, ageing lineup at a time when rivals in China and Europe are launching a lot of swanky new models, many of them cheaper than Tesla’s.
Some of the grim October sales numbers in Europe highlight Tesla’s problems. In Denmark, Tesla was outsold by several Chinese EV brands, including BYD, Xpeng and Geely's Zeekr. In Spain, its sales were dwarfed by SAIC's MG brand, BYD and Chery's Omoda and Jaecoo brands.
Tesla was not just outsold by mainstream brands in Sweden, but also luxury German automaker Porsche – which is also not having a good year.
Fixing Tesla’s core car sales problems will take time and a lot of money. But hey, it’s worth a go for $1 trillion.