Washington, DC

1. Health care deal divide
2. Shutdown’s economic cost
3. US trade tensions ease
4. Navy ship nears Venezuela
5. Graham gets a boost
6. Stock ban hearing
7. Newsom at COP

PDB: SCOTUS pauses SNAP again

Trump hosts dinner with Wall Street executives … Bessent speaks at Treasury Market Conference … House to vote on funding bill today

GOP lawmakers’ diverging health care paths

House and Senate Republicans’ different trajectories on health care signal just how elusive a post-shutdown deal could prove to be, Semafor’s Eleanor Mueller reports. While Senate Majority Leader John Thune has promised Democrats a December vote on extending enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies, Speaker Mike Johnson has made no such vow — instead reiterating this week that he needs to “build consensus” among his members first. The disparate timelines are poised to complicate already tangled talks over whether the GOP should pursue short- or long-term solutions to rising costs. There’s building momentum for the latter, though going big risks alienating politically vulnerable members who want immediate results. “These are COVID subsidies Dems are relying on as a Band-Aid on a system they broke,” Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, told Semafor. “Congressional Republicans have a plan — we should just have the courage to fight for it.”

Shutdown yields ‘cloudy’ economic picture

The toll of the government shutdown on the US economy will take a while to determine, Semafor’s Liz Hoffman writes. Much of the estimated $15 billion a week in lost activity will be recouped as federal workers start collecting paychecks, welfare payments are restored, and travelers can confidently book flights. Still, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett anticipated slower growth in this quarter, and said on CNBC that the outlook will be “cloudy” for some time due to the lack of government reports. The prior longest shutdown on record shaved $3 billion off a then-$21 trillion economy, according to the Congressional Budget Office, which estimated the current shutdown has caused $14 billion in lost growth. But this standoff has also taken a toll on consumer sentiment, and the political disagreement that ignited it — rising health insurance premiums — will squeeze Americans further.

White House moves to ease trade tensions

The White House looked to be dialing down global trade tensions as officials noted progress on deals with several major countries. President Donald Trump said tariffs against India, ratcheted up over the nation’s purchasing of Russian oil, would likely be lowered soon, and Switzerland was reportedly set to conclude an agreement with the US within weeks. Vietnam’s deputy prime minister, meanwhile, said his nation was working towards a deal with Washington, and tensions between the US and China over trade have notably lessened. Even when a deal appears close, however, talks can drag on: South Korea has been trying unsuccessfully to finalize an agreement Trump touted on a recent trip to Asia.

Navy aircraft carrier nears Venezuela

The USS Gerald R. Ford, the Navy’s most advanced aircraft carrier, is nearing Venezuela as the Trump administration continues its troop buildup in the region. The carrier’s arrival had been expected for weeks, after the administration made the unusual move to redirect it from a scheduled deployment to the Mediterranean; the Venezuelan military is at “full operational readiness,” the country’s defense minister said Tuesday. So far, the Trump administration has focused its firepower on alleged drug boats, though Trump has privately weighed direct strikes inside Venezuela and many White House insiders say the ultimate goal is regime change. The strikes have been a point of contention with some lawmakers, and those concerns now extend to at least one US ally: CNN reported that the United Kingdom has opted to stop sharing intelligence regarding alleged drug vessels in the region with the US because of the strikes.

— Shelby Talcott

Conservative group spends to boost Graham

A top conservative group is spending six figures on a new advertisement to boost Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., as Republican leaders look to fend off primary threats to his seat in 2026. The ad from One Nation, a group aligned with GOP leaders, praises Graham for his work advocating for Trump’s border security agenda. The spot will run on digital and radio statewide for two weeks, according to details shared first with Semafor. “Senator Lindsey Graham is a conservative fighter for President Trump and the people of South Carolina,” One Nation communications director Chris Gustafson said. While Graham is a close ally of Trump, he’s staked out positions on issues like Ukraine that are out of step with the MAGA movement. Graham is already facing Democratic candidates and primary challenges from a former lieutenant governor and an author of Project 2025.

— Morgan Chalfant and Burgess Everett

Stock ban authors wary of delaying tactics

The authors of a bipartisan proposal to ban lawmakers from trading stocks are on alert after a rumored markup of the bill turned out to just be a hearing on the broader issue. “Some of the Republican members we have been working with, not just [Rep. Anna Paulina] Luna, were under the impression that it would be a markup,” Rep. Seth Magaziner, D-R.I., told Semafor on Tuesday. “If the hearing is the beginning of a regular order process that will lead to a markup and a floor vote — that’s forward progress. … If, however, this is just a delaying tactic by the speaker, then obviously that is unacceptable.” Magaziner and Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, have long urged a floor vote this fall. Though Luna has threatened a discharge petition forcing a vote in the past, other Republican supporters have been more circumspect.

— Eleanor Mueller

Newsom goes after Trump at COP

California Gov. Gavin Newsom, the highest-ranking US official to attend the COP30 summit in Brazil, told delegates that a Trump administration plan to open the California coast for drilling will only happen “over our dead body, full stop.” Newsom spent his day in Belém touring a sustainable agriculture lab, signing a partnership with German officials to collaborate on nuclear power and other clean tech, and speaking about the importance of subnational climate leadership during the Trump administration. In addition to condemning the offshore drilling plan, Newsom, who is stirring 2028 speculation, urged Democrats to reframe the climate debate as an economic issue, with a focus on jobs and energy affordability. Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Newsom said, “is singing [Trump’s] praises, and flooding the zone on the great economic opportunity in the transition to clean energy. We won’t allow that to happen.”

— Tim McDonnell

Blindspot: Investigations and charges

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: Florida’s Republican attorney general said his office would investigate JPMorgan Chase over “debanking” allegations related to President Trump’s media company.

What the Right isn’t reading: One Jan. 6 defendant is facing new charges of sexual assault and kidnapping in Utah. 

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Google is giving its support to three bipartisan bills aimed at tackling scams in a bid to boost momentum for the proposed legislation.

Axios: American and Saudi officials have been holding talks on finalizing a defense deal, among other agreements, ahead of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to the White House next week.

Playbook: A memo published by New Jersey Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill’s campaign says her election win was powered by an economic message centered on affordability, by mobilizing Black and Latino voters, and by grassroots outreach.

WaPo: “I do believe that you need to rightsize the federal government. And eventually more downsizing is going to have to occur,” said House Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris.

White House

• President Trump has kept Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in his position despite “a series of blunders.” — The Atlantic
• Trump pardoned a runner convicted of using a restricted path on Grand Teton.

Congress

• Rep. Jodey Arrington, R-Texas, will not seek reelection. — Fox
• A provision in the Senate-passed bill to end the shutdown would allow Republican senators whose phone records were subpoenaed by the Justice Department during its investigation of the Jan. 6 Capitol riot to