Economic and Financial Affairs

The European Commission's Autumn 2025 Economic Forecast shows that growth in the first three quarters of 2025 outperformed expectations. While the strong performance was initially driven by a surge in exports in anticipation of tariff increases, the EU economy continued to grow in the third quarter. Looking ahead, economic activity is expected to continue expanding at a moderate pace over the forecast horizon, despite a challenging external environment. This year's Autumn Forecast projects real GDP to grow by 1.4% in the EU in 2025 and 2026, edging up to 1.5% in 2027. The euro area is expected to mirror this trend, with real GDP projected to grow by 1.3% in 2025, 1.2% in 2026, and 1.4% in 2027. Inflation in the euro area is forecast to continue its decline, falling to 2.1% in 2025, and to hover around 2% over the forecast horizon. In the EU, inflation is set to remain marginally higher, falling to 2.2% in 2027.

On 11 November, the European Commission disbursed €438.6 million in grants to Bulgaria and €240 million in grants to Ireland, marking the second and third payments, respectively, for the Member States under the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF). Bulgaria resubmitted its revised second payment request on 23 July for €653 million—following the approval of its updated plan including a REPowerEU chapter—with 59 milestones supporting reforms in areas such as education, justice, energy markets and storage. Ireland submitted its third payment request on 11 August for €240 million, covering milestones across sustainable transport, energy efficiency, e-health, public administration and tax policy. The Commission approved this request on 29 September, bringing Ireland to 59% of its total RRF funding received.