A look at the day ahead in European and global markets

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Morning Bid Europe

Morning Bid Europe

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets

By Ankur Banerjee, Asia Finance & Markets Breaking News Correspondent

 
 

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A risk-on rally spurred by the sudden shift in U.S. rate-cut wagers after dovish comments from policymakers may falter in Europe while currency markets remain wary that Tokyo could intervene to support the yen.

U.S. President Donald Trump touted relations with China as "extremely strong" on Monday following a call with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.

 

Today's Market News

  • Asian stocks edge higher as US rate cut hopes rise
  • Oil dips on oversupply concerns while investors eye Ukraine talks
  • UniCredit launches first fully internal life policy in focus on fees
  • EU missing the boat on AI, jeopardising its future, Lagarde warns
  • Hungary's second largest bank MBH to sell 7% stake in public offer
 

Fed rate cut bets rise

A graph of the German share price index DAX is displayed at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, November 24, 2025. REUTERS/Staff

Trump also told Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi "call me anytime" in their first phone call since Tokyo's leader sparked a major diplomatic bust-up with China.

Markets though, are laser-focused on U.S. rate developments after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller reiterated the labor market's weakness could justify a further quarter-point rate cut in December. His comments were the latest to help raise investor expectations of a rate cut next month.

Traders are now pricing in an 81% chance of a cut next month versus 42% a week earlier, CME FedWatch showed. That huge swing underscores the challenge the market faces in pricing in near-term rates in the absence of economic data due to the longest U.S. government shutdown that ended on November 14.

 

Yen stuck near 10-month low

Despite the sharp rise in rate-cut wagers, the U.S. dollar has remained stable.

And so, that leaves the yen languishing near its 10-month lows and perilously close to 160/dollar, with no respite as chatter about intervention from Tokyo officials rages on. In short, the yen vigil is here to stay.

A holiday-curtailed week may provide Tokyo with the perfect opportunity to directly engage with some yen buying, traders say, but ultimately it may have limited impact. 

Meanwhile, shares of Novo Nordisk (NOVOb.CO), opens new tab slumped on Monday after the obesity drugmaker announced its Alzheimer's trials for an older oral version of its semaglutide drug failed to help slow the progression of the brain-wasting disease.

Market reaction may extend into Tuesday unless dip buyers intervene, although analysts noted investors had low expectations for the trial's success.

European futures point to a lower opening as the momentum in Asian equities slows. Perhaps last week's worries about AI valuations remain on investor minds.

 

Graphics are produced by Reuters.

 

Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:

  • Germany Q3 GDP data
  • French consumer confidence data for November
  • Easyjet earnings
 

Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

 

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