Good morning. A momentous deal between Alberta and Ottawa could reset relations after years of strain, but it has already set off a new phase of political and legal clashes over energy development and environmental rules. That’s just one of the stories in focus this week.

Health care: Alberta’s move to open private billing is unlikely to increase capacity, physicians say.

War: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said talks with Ukraine were “productive” ahead of a key meeting in Moscow this week.

‘Software-defined’ vehicles: BlackBerry veteran John Wall is taking the wheel of the company’s QNX car software unit.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and Prime Minister Mark Carney make (potentially complicated) history on Thursday. Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press

This day in history: Months or even years from now, a series of political and legal battles may be traced back to Nov. 27, 2025.

That was the day Ottawa and Alberta agreed to reset their strained energy relationship – pausing federal rules, backing major emissions-reduction projects and reopening the door to a potential West Coast pipeline with Indigenous co-ownership. The deal immediately raised alarms among environmental groups and some Indigenous leaders, and comes despite strong opposition from B.C. Premier David Eby.

Indigenous opposition in British Columbia may not be able to stop a pipeline pledged in an agreement between Ottawa and Alberta. But coastal First Nations say they’re prepared to challenge any project in the courts, thus adding delays and uncertainty.

Prime Minister Mark Carney will be addressing the Assembly of First Nations this week, and the agenda includes discussion over the Building Canada Act’s Major Projects Office and Indigenous Advisory Council.

The energy agreement is also likely to bring internal turmoil: Already, former environment minister Steven Guilbeault announced he was quitting his cabinet post. Carney’s MPs have been raising concerns about the rollback of environmental protections, which had been central to the Liberal Party’s messaging and governance under the leadership of Justin Trudeau.

Buy the banks? Canadian bank stocks head into fourth-quarter earnings at record highs − a surprising feat given tariff pressure from the U.S. and a weaker domestic economy.

Analysts expect higher fee-based income to prop up profits after a year of strong financial markets and share price volatility. But the rally has been driven more by investors paying up than by profit growth, Amber Kanwar writes in her weekly markets setup.

Jefferies analyst John Aiken argues the big banks have already priced in a lot of good news, making the stocks look stretched. He downgraded TD and Royal Bank on valuation concerns, leaving no buys among the major banks.

A few key dynamics to watch this week include how much banks set aside for potential loan losses in 2026, whether the pace of buybacks holds or shifts to acquisitions, and whether capital-market strength is offset by higher compensation.

Reporting schedule

  • Tuesday: Scotiabank
  • Wednesday: RBC, National, EQB
  • Thursday: BMO, TD, CIBC
  • Friday: Laurentian
The topsides – the production and operations structures above the waterline – depart the Texas construction yard en route to Newfoundland and Labrador. Installation was completed in July. Supplied

Getting Canada to work: For Newfoundland and Labrador, the West White Rose offshore oil project has become a symbol of revival. In July, a 23,000-tonne production deck – hauled roughly 5,500 kilometres from a shipyard in Texas – was secured to the offshore platform. Another milestone came last week, when the project celebrated two decades of development roughly 350 kilometres east of St. John’s.

By 2026, production is expected to reach up to 80,000 barrels a day. The oil can move directly into overseas markets, easing Canada’s long dependence on U.S. pipelines and refineries just as tariffs climb.

But that same installation also revealed a fault line in Canada’s economy. The module was so large it accounted for much of the second-quarter rise in business investment. In the third quarter, with nothing comparable arriving, investment slipped again – and with it, confidence that growth is on sure footing.

Economists say the problem isn’t the size of Canada’s megaprojects, but the lack of investment everywhere else. Business investment spending might be unchanged from a year ago, “but that prior year level was not strong to start with,” said Nathan Janzen, an assistant chief economist at RBC. New capital spending helps, he said. “But it will take sustained effort over a longer period of time to make a significant difference to productivity.”

Those underlying spending patterns are what will be in focus when Statistics Canada releases new productivity numbers on Wednesday. The Bank of Canada has warned that weak productivity is trapping the country in a “vicious circle” that weighs on wages, investment and resilience – no matter how big the next project looks on paper.

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