In November 2024, Donald Trump won Tennessee’s 7th congressional district by 22 percentage points, as Republicans romped to victory in what has become one of the reddest states in the country.
A year later, there is a very different story emerging in Tennessee’s 7th district. Both parties are pouring millions of dollars into the district for a special election next week to replace former Republican Rep. Mark Green, who retired in July. And Democrats have a puncher’s chance of scoring an upset.
The sudden competitiveness of a special House election in a heavily gerrymandered Republican district is a good summation of Trump and the GOP’s current political freefall — and the rising political fortunes of Democrats. By all accounts, Republican Matt Van Epps, the former Tennessee General Services commissioner, is leading his opponent, Democrat Aftyn Behn, a member of the Tennessee House of Representatives, in the polls. (Though on Wednesday late last week, a stunning poll from Emerson College/The Hill showed Van Epps ahead by only two points, with a roughly four-point margin of error.)
But with Democrats overperforming in special elections in 2025 by around 13 points — as well as a couple of unexpected double-digit victories in gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, plus winning two statewide races in Georgia by nearly 25 points — seemingly even an R+22 seat could be up for grabs.
This is a preview of Michael A. Cohen's latest column. Read the full column here.
