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Good afternoon, Press Pass readers. There’s a special election in Tennessee today, and many other special races are coming up in 2026, including the midterm elections. Get a clear view of the stakes and stay up to date on the state of play by upgrading to a Bulwark+ membership. You can sign up on a month-to-month basis to try it out, or jump into an annual subscription to take you through the end of next year. Sign up at the link below, and if you do today, let me know in the comments so I can welcome you to our community.
Today’s edition helps you understand the final fight of the year on Capitol Hill, which centers on whether the Affordable Care Act’s enhanced subsidies should be extended before they expire at the end of December. The situation is playing out in a way that is reminiscent of the recent government shutdown fight: Most Republicans just don’t want to negotiate at all, Democrats have explicit demands, and the House and Senate are in different universes.
Of course, another issue is bothering Congress: the possible war crime committed by the Trump administration when survivors of a military strike against an alleged drug boat were blown apart in the water in a follow-up strike. A Republican senator I spoke to about it raged against the paper that reported the story; he was so committed to the idea that the whole thing was made up to hurt Trump that he even refused to acknowledge the White House’s own confirmation of the second hit. Lastly, a House Republican fearful of his chances after California voters decided to shred his district is mulling a move to another state to give himself a shot at staying in Congress. All that and more, below.
Those Obamacare Subsidies Aren’t Going to Extend Themselves
Unfortunately, lawmakers probably won’t end up extending them, either.
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MAHA hahaha
There are just thirteen legislative days left in the year, and unlike many American office workers, members of Congress cannot afford to check out and just “circle back” after the holidays. Besides, they’ve already taken a lot of time off this year. As part of their deal to reopen the government after a record-setting 43-day shutdown, Senate Democrats were promised a vote on extending the Affordable Care Act’s enhanced subsidies. But the problems brought on by procrastinating on this health care debate are already starting to take hold—and the likelihood of Congress resolving the issues is, to put it bluntly, not very high.
In the House, Democrats have proposed a three-year extension of the enhanced subsidies. Cynical readers may (fairly) interpret this as a political gambit: The ask is big enough that it virtually guarantees the proposal will not pass. But then, if it does pass, the three-year timeline would bring the ACA subsidies debate back to center stage just in time for the 2028 presidential election. If lawmakers fail to reach a deal of any kind this month, the issue would be at the forefront of the midterm elections next year. Maybe one election-year fight is better than the other—but in any case, Democrats are in a position to get at least one of them.
During the government shutdown, a group of senators sought a single-year extension, which House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries initially called a nonstarter but later hinted could be palatable. Other possibilities include two years of the enhanced subsidies coupled with new income caps and rules intended to prevent fraud. Either way, the opening Democratic demand of a three-year extension is simply too much for most if not all Republicans.¹
Democrats maintain that the extensions are necessary to prevent a crisis—one that is already starting to take shape—before the subsidies sunset at the end of the month. Staying true to form, Republicans have largely tried to obstruct new health reforms with one hand while holding up competing proposals for health savings accounts–based solutions with the other.
Jeffries told reporters on Monday that while there have been informal bipartisan negotiations on a two-year extension led by Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.), “There certainly haven’t been any leadership conversations.”
Jeffries isn’t holding his breath for them to begin, citing widespread House GOP opposition to health care negotiations in which they are not in sole control.
“When it appears that Donald Trump actually might be to enter into a good-faith, bipartisan effort to extend the Affordable Care Act tax credits, House Republicans detonate the agreement,” he said. “These people aren’t serious about anything other than providing massive tax breaks to their billionaire donors.”
In the Senate, Democrats have an arguably more realistic conception for a potential deal: something that extends the subsidies less than three years, and that might also include some additional Republican-friendly tinkers, such as income phaseouts.
“I want to see the longest extension possible, but I’m flexible,” Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) told me on Monday. “Ultimately, we’re only passing something with Republican votes. It’s obviously not like they’re gonna agree to an extension as long as we would like. So . . . if the stars align and Republicans realize that this is the right thing to do for them and for the country, then we can’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good.”
The good might have another, equally formidable enemy. Although they