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The Trump administration is intent on choking off Venezuela’s oil exports. This will come as an irritant to the Kremlin, which yesterday denounced the seizure of a Russian-flagged tanker traveling in the North Atlantic. Beijing, too, will be less than pleased − the vast majority of Venezuelan crude ends up in China.

For Cuba’s government, however, it could be existential. For years, Havana has relied on subsidized oil from Venezuela to try to keep the lights on. In recent years, it hasn’t always worked − a series of recent blackouts in Cuba has served as a handy visual metaphor for the country’s economic crisis.

When a U.S. special ops team snatched Nicolás Maduro from a compound in Caracas, it didn’t only take away Venezuela’s leader, it took away Cuba’s closest ally and economic lifeline. And speculation that Cuba could be next for U.S. intervention misses the point. As President Donald Trump himself said: “I don’t think we need (to take) any action … Cuba looks like it’s ready to fall.”

Joseph J. Gonzalez, an expert on Cuba-U.S. relations, thinks Trump might be right. In recent years, Cubans have been leaving the country in droves. Those who remain are looking increasingly favorably on the idea of a Cuba without its long-standing communist government. “If the Yankees showed up today, most of us would probably greet them as liberators,” one Cuban-based friend of Gonzalez told him.

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Matt Williams

Senior International Editor

‘After you, President Maduro?’ A worrying phrase for Cuba’s President Miguel Diaz-Canel. Juan Barreto/AFP via Getty Images

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