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The Morning Risk Report: Russian Flags Proliferate Over Shadow Fleet of Oil Tankers
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By Richard Vanderford | Dow Jones Risk Journal
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Good morning. With five oil tankers seized—and more U.S. military action promised—the world’s fleet of so-called shadow tankers that ferry sanctioned crude are quickly hoisting a new flag: the Russian tricolor.
Their hope is that by operating under the flag of a country with a strong navy they might be able to skirt the U.S. blockade on Venezuelan oil movements and avoid interception by the Coast Guard.
It doesn’t appear to be working.
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New seizure: The U.S. military seized a fifth oil tanker Friday and continues to monitor other vessels trying to evade the Trump administration’s quarantine on sanctioned tankers traveling to and from Venezuela, according to American officials
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Closing the net: In the past two weeks alone, as the Trump administration’s attempt to blockade Venezuela’s crude exports intensified, more than 15 tankers involved in shipping sanctioned oil swapped flags to fly Russia’s, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence. Russia-flagged ships still represent a small portion of the shadow fleet.
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New flags: Twenty-five tankers were reflagged to Russia in the final three months of 2025, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. Eighteen of those changed their colors in December, and 16 were sanctioned by the U.K. or the U.S. The legitimacy of these midvoyage changes under international maritime law is unclear, S&P said.
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Content from our sponsor: Deloitte
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Sonoco Sustainability Leader: As Markets Shift, Role Evolves
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Scott Byrne, who leads sustainability for the packaging company, reflects on how his role has expanded and become more collaborative as regulatory and market shifts have unfolded. Read More
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‘IRS civil enforcement is auditing financial institutions that facilitated the laundering of Minnesota funds, in addition to helping support criminal and civil enforcement efforts,’ Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said. Photo: Getty Images
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Financial sector faces IRS audits over Minnesota fraud.
The U.S. is probing financial institutions over possible involvement in the Minnesota fraud scandal, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, raising concerns about terrorist financing and money laundering.
Several money services businesses face investigations, and the Internal Revenue Service has started auditing financial institutions, Risk Journal reports.
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Trump blindsides Wall Street allies with crackdown on housing investors.
Blackstone Chief Executive Officer Stephen Schwarzman helped launch Wall Street into the business of buying and renting out single-family homes in the aftermath of the 2008 housing crash.
This past week, his firm and others across the industry were blindsided when President Trump—himself a property mogul whom many in the sector consider an ally—said he plans to boot investors from the market.
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Elon Musk has repeatedly expanded the boundaries of permitted speech on his social-media platform X. Child-safety watchdogs and international regulators say a recent update to its artificial-intelligence chatbot Grok crossed a dangerous line: permitting sexualized editing of photos, including of children.
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The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission survived a court challenge to its ability to ban wrongdoers from working in the securities industry.
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Justice Department antitrust enforcers wanted to investigate the $1.6 billion merger of the country’s two biggest real-estate brokerages but were overruled by senior officials who thought the deal should be greenlighted, according to people familiar with the matter.
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New York Attorney General Letitia James on Friday filed two lawsuits against the Trump administration over its halt of the Empire Wind and Sunrise Wind projects.
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A suspicious, high-stakes bet on the fate of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has sparked legislative scrutiny in Washington, with some lawmakers looking to ban insider trading by public officials on prediction markets platforms.
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10%
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The maximum interest rate for credit cards under a new plan floated by President Trump. Industry groups panned the proposal.
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Iranians pass by an anti-U.S. mural in Tehran. Photo: Abedin Taherkenareh/EPA/Shutterstock
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U.S. steps up planning for possible action in Iran.
President Trump is scheduled to be briefed Tuesday on specific options to respond to the protests in Iran, according to U.S. officials, a sign the president is considering reprimanding the regime for its crackdown on demonstrators as he has repeatedly threatened.
The president’s planned meeting with senior administration officials will be a discussion about the next steps, which could include boosting antigovernment sources online, deploying secretive cyber weapons against Iranian military and civilian sites, placing more sanctions on the regime and military strikes, the officials said.
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Real-estate sector could see homeowners moving over climate concerns.
Almost half of U.S. homeowners surveyed by an insurance company said they might relocate this year over climate concerns. That could mean big changes for the real estate and insurance industries to traverse, Risk Journal reports.
The report published this week by Kin Insurance said 49% of the 1,000 homeowners polled said they are thinking about moving because of climate-related issues. Nearly all of the homeowners surveyed—93%—said they are bracing for harsh weather that could damage their homes in the next three years because of climate change.
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OPEC members struggling to preserve their market share amid a sinking price for oil now have an unexpected new variable to contend with: President Trump’s move to dominate Venezuela’s oil supply and push the market in a direction that would benefit American consumers.
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Last year was a slog for the U.S. labor market.
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Trump pressed oil executives to invest in Venezuela, but got a lukewarm reception.
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The U.S. conducted large-scale strikes against Islamic State at numerous locations across Syria on Saturday in response to the killing of two American soldiers and a civilian interpreter last month, the Pentagon said.
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South Africa, already on the outs with the Trump administration, is risking further ire from Washington this week by welcoming Iranian, Russian and Chinese warships to its waters.
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On the most recent episode of the Dow Jones Risk Journal Podcast: The U.S. military operation in Venezuela has ushered in a new era of geopolitical risk. Adam Ward and Max Fillion discuss the implications of this marked shift in foreign policy and its effects on companies and markets.
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Also, Kim S. Nash explains how cyber threats to critical infrastructure pose a significant risk in an era of increasing nation-state conflict. James Rundle hosts.
You can listen to new episodes every Friday on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and Amazon.
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Meta Platforms on Friday unveiled a series of agreements that would make it an anchor customer for new and existing nuclear power in the U.S., where it needs city-size amounts of electricity for its artificial-intelligence data centers.
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At 92 years old, Judge Alvin Hellerstein is presiding over the virtually unprecedented narcoterrorism case against ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. An experienced jurist known for his unconventional approach to the job, the judge’s age is nonetheless raising questions about his ability to oversee a sprawling matter that could drag on for years.
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Google unveiled a set of tools for retailers that helps them roll out AI agents, aiming to make it easier for brands to reach their customers who are shopping with the technology.
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A clothing brand in Maine got a boost from Nicolás Maduro’s arrest.
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The Federal Reserve received grand jury subpoenas from the Justice Department on Friday that threaten a criminal indictment relating to Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony last summer about the central bank’s building renovation project, the Fed chair said in a video statement on Sunday night. Powell said the investigation was a pretext as part of President Trump’s ongoing campaign to pressure the Fed to lower interest rates.
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