Gulf

1. Iran détente, for now
2. Gulf eyes Venezuela deals
3. Saudi’s big mining bet
4. The Omani economic revival
5. Record Saudi executions
6. Nobel laureates in Dubai

Saudi Arabia reevaluates LIV golf, and other weekend reads.

Gulf countries urge restraint on Iran

Three Gulf countries, along with Israel and Türkiye, appear to have helped convince Washington to step back from attacking Iran. Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia reportedly urged deescalation and a return to talks, warning that bombing Iran wouldn’t topple the government but could spark a regional conflict. US President Donald Trump has now softened his stance while still ordering the military to put assets in place.

Iran’s protest crackdown — which analysts say was the deadliest in the Islamic Republic’s history — has created a dilemma for Gulf powers. Few countries have sympathy for Tehran, yet all are concerned about the repercussions if the regime there collapsed. For now the disruptions have been limited to air traffic diversions, as well as 25% secondary tariffs by the US on Iran’s trading partners, with the UAE most affected. Iran retains economic links to Gulf commercial hubs, as seen when the US Treasury Department on Thursday sanctioned six UAE-based companies involved in “shadow banking networks that allow Iran’s elite to steal and launder revenue generated by the country’s natural resources.”

And while US strikes appear to be off, for now, Iran’s leadership is facing a set of internal challenges that are ingredients for a revolution, meaning any quietening on the streets could be short-lived, according to Iran expert Karim Sadjadpour.

— Mohammed Sergie

Qatari bank holds Venezuelan oil proceeds

The Trump administration’s first sale of Venezuelan oil is valued at $500 million and some of it will sit in a Qatari bank account, Semafor’s Shelby Talcott and Eleanor Mueller first reported. The transaction is a milestone for the US after the ouster of Venezuela’s former leader Nicolás Maduro. Qatar was described by a senior US administration official as a neutral location where money can flow freely with Washington’s approval and without risk of seizure, though it’s likely to cause consternation among Democrats concerned about the prospect of offshore accounts being used.

While US companies are skeptical about investing in Venezuela, Gulf firms are expressing more willingness. Abu Dhabi energy giant ADNOC is considering investing in gas projects, Bloomberg reported, and Dubai port operator DP World’s chairman told The National that it is ready to return to Venezuela “within 24 hours” if the right opportunity comes up.

Maaden plans $110B investment

Saudi Arabia’s state-controlled mining company will invest $110 billion in production over the course of the next decade, its CEO told Semafor’s Matthew Martin, as Big Tech’s massive data center buildout spurs fresh demand for copper and other precious metals globally.

Maaden plans to triple its phosphate and gold business and double its aluminum business with the investment, Bob Wilt told Semafor. “We are deploying capital at an unprecedented pace,” he said. Maaden has “eight megaprojects on the books right now,” with two underway and six others in various stages of planning.

The push comes as Amazon struck a deal with Rio Tinto to tap copper from an Arizona mine — the first restarted in more than a decade — to power its AI data center buildout, The Wall Street Journal reports. Though Rio’s supply won’t be enough to power even one data center facility, it fuels the rush for minerals (and their prices) as Big Tech seeks more power to sustain the AI race.

Oman’s heir takes on economic brief

Oman’s Sultan Haitham Al-Said has gained plaudits for transforming the country’s economic outlook since taking power six years ago this month. Now his son and anointed successor Theyazin is set to become an increasingly important figure. A cabinet reshuffle saw him promoted from the prosaic position of culture, sports, and youth minister to become deputy prime minister for economic affairs.

Observers from the IMF and ratings agencies have heaped praise on Muscat’s recent record of cutting its debts and budget deficits, while still being willing to invest in projects with potential long-term benefits, such as the green hydrogen industry. Theyazin will now have a key role in keeping up that momentum; among other things, he will be responsible for the new Oman Global Financial Centre, Muscat’s attempt to build its own Gulf finance hub.

This week’s reshuffle also named Theyazin’s younger brother Bilarab as Muscat governor and gave him a seat at the cabinet table. Oman’s technocratic reforms stand out in a region where others often favour “megaprojects and moonshots,” but, as with its neighbors, power is firmly kept within the ruling family.

— Dominic Dudley

Record number of Saudi executions

The number of people executed in Saudi Arabia last year, according to Human Rights Watch, the highest yet recorded. Around two-thirds of them were executed for drug offenses, including 188 foreign nationals; others for joining political protests or uncovering corruption within the royal family.

Other Gulf countries retain the death penalty on their statute books, but use it relatively rarely, although there have been a rising number of cases in Kuwait in recent years, and some in the UAE too.

In Iran, the rate of executions has soared as economic and political conditions have soured, with more than 1,000 people executed in the first nine months of 2025, according to Amnesty International; perhaps only China kills more, though Beijing does not disclose its full use of capital punishment. There are fears that many of those involved in recent protests across Iran could suffer the same fate, though Tehran appeared to pause any immediate executions in the face of US pressure.

World’s top scientists descend on Dubai

The world’s most decorated scientists will convene in Dubai next month. The inaugural World Laureates Summit will be held alongside the World Government Summit, bringing 200 of the world’s top researchers into the orbit of presidents, prime ministers, multilateral leaders, and business executives.

The laureates forum on Feb. 3 will be the largest assembly of its kind. Roger Kornberg, the 2006 Nobel laureate in chemistry, said its goal was to create a dialogue between scientists and the policymakers and businesses that fund — and ultimately apply — their work.

Beyond science, the World Government Summit will feature CEOs from Airbus, IBM, and Google DeepMind, and, of course, Tucker Carlson. Dubai’s roads and transport boss said on Friday that delegates can also expect a glimpse of the future: air taxis and autonomous vehicles will be deployed for attendees to experience.

It is not clear if FIFA Peace Prize laureate (and owner of a Nobel Peace Prize) Donald Trump will be there.

— Mohammed Sergie

The foundations of global finance are shifting. AI is reshaping everything, including risk modeling to asset allocation, while massive investments in digital infrastructure are redefining where value is created and how it scales.

Join Semafor editors on Jan. 21 in Davos as we sit down with global executives, including Crusoe Co-founder and CEO Chase Lochmiller, to unpack how data centers, compute capacity, and AI applications represent a new frontier of strategic investment.

Jan. 21 | Davos | Request Invitation

Crypto

• The Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) revised its crypto tokens rules, putting the onus on financial services firms in the Dubai International Financial Centre to judge whether the tokens they deal with meet the DFSA’s suitability criteria. Until now, the DFSA had led the assessment. The regulator will also no longer publish a list of recognized crypto tokens.

Defense

• UAE defense company EDGE and Spanish contractor Indra are launching a joint venture to produce smart weapons and drone-like precision missiles, using EDGE’s tech and a new factory in Spain to scale in Europe.

Diplomacy

• Kuwait is the only Gulf state on a list of 75 countries whose citizens will see US immigrant-visa processing paused from Jan. 21, tied to a State Department review aimed at blocking migrants it deems more likely to need public assistance.
• Abu Dhabi-listed IHC has partnered with the US International Development Finance Corporation, Washington’s international investment arm, to collaborate on deals spanning critical minerals and mining, energy infrastructure, food security, and data centers. — The National

Mining

• US-headquartered Critical Metals Corp. is lining up Saudi partner Tariq Abdel Hadi Abdullah Al-Qahtani & Brothers for a $290 million refinery to process rare earths from a planned mine in Greenland, with the output directed to the US defense sector. — Reuters