Washington, DC

1. Cost of Greenland campaign
2. Carney warns of ‘rupture’
3. Dalio on US ‘vulnerability’
4. Board of Peace scrutiny
5. Fed firing arguments
6. WH flexes on spending deal
7. Senators face primary threats

PDB: SCOTUS unlikely to rule on tariffs this month

Bessent: Trump expected three hours late at Davos … US reports pending home sales … S&P 500 futures ⬇️ 2%

The cost of Trump’s Greenland designs

President Donald Trump’s threats to take over Greenland are endangering his promises to make things more affordable for Americans, Semafor’s Eleanor Mueller reports. Since “Liberation Day,” investors have shrugged off what would otherwise be market-moving news, like Trump’s investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell. But after Trump vowed to impose tariffs on longtime US allies that sent troops to Greenland, a Danish territory, stocks collapsed, the dollar faltered, gold shot up, and Treasury prices dropped. Trump, who on Tuesday nonetheless touted “the best stock market in history,” had previously shown interest in trying to boost consumer sentiment ahead of the midterms — including by greenlighting the purchase of $200 billion in mortgage bonds in an effort to bring long-term rates down. “He’s got a beautiful opportunity to talk about economic growth and he’s thrown it away on the stupidity of Greenland,” Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb., said.

Carney warns of global ‘rupture’

Canada’s prime minister used an address at Davos to argue that US aggression had triggered a “rupture” in the global order, one that required middle powers to band together. While not mentioning Trump by name, Mark Carney’s speech to the World Economic Form took clear aim at the US leader. “Every day we are reminded that we live in an era of great power rivalry,” he said. “That the rules-based order is fading. That the strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must.” The former central bank governor, who received a standing ovation, also warned against “using economic integration as weapons, tariffs as leverage,” comments echoed by French President Emmanuel Macron, who cautioned that the US was seeking to “subordinate Europe” through competition. Trump appears unfazed, however: Before heading to Davos, he refused to rule out using military force to seize Greenland.

US debt ‘enormous vulnerability’: Dalio

Countries in Trump’s crosshairs have one big economic tool, according to Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio: a lot of America’s bonds. The $9 trillion of US debt owned by foreign countries is an “enormous vulnerability,” Dalio told Semafor’s Liz Hoffman on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum. His warning came as an executive at Denmark’s largest pension plan said it was selling off its $100 million in US Treasury bonds (a move the exec insisted wasn’t political) after Trump reiterated his Greenland demands. “You could easily imagine it could simply become unpopular to buy or hold US debt,” Dalio said. Meanwhile, an executive at PIMCO told the Financial Times that the bond giant was pivoting from US assets because of Trump’s “unpredictable” policies. Trump is expected to speak at Davos on Wednesday, though an “electrical issue” delayed his flight from Washington.

Trump’s ‘Board of Peace’ faces scrutiny

Trump’s new “Board of Peace” faces questions as he descends on Davos, where he plans to lead a signing ceremony formalizing it. Topping the list of concerns from allies is the proposal for nations to pay $1 billion for a permanent board spot. While it’s unclear whether any country has agreed to pay that amount, a US official told Semafor that it isn’t a requirement for a three-year membership. More than 10 countries have reportedly signed on, including the UAE, Belarus, and on Tuesday night, Israel. Still, there are questions about the board’s specific purpose: Its charter describes a broad mandate for the organization, NBC News reported, and Trump even suggested it “might” replace the United Nations. The US official, meanwhile, said the board’s mandate is to rebuild Gaza and that any money raised “will be used directly to accomplish those efforts.”

— Shelby Talcott

SCOTUS weighs Trump’s Fed firing

The Supreme Court will hear oral arguments today over Trump’s effort to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, one of the highest-profile cases of a jam-packed session. Trump’s push to fire Cook over unproven mortgage fraud allegations is part of his broader assault on Fed independence, which has earned him criticism from Republican lawmakers because of its potential negative effect on the US economy. “It’s no exaggeration to say that the economic and constitutional foundations of the country are on trial in this case,” a former Treasury adviser told The Washington Post. A ruling against Cook would threaten a 90-year decision limiting presidents’ ability to fire independent agency officials. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to attend the arguments; Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent criticized Powell’s plans on CNBC, arguing his presence would suggest an attempt to “politicize the Fed.”

Public broadcasting, rail funds blocked

The Trump administration fended off last-minute Democratic efforts to include funding for the Corporation for Public Broadcasting and to restart federal money for rail projects — including the Gateway Tunnel — in a four-bill spending package the House takes up this week, two senior administration officials told Semafor. The administration also kept out restrictions on interior immigration enforcement and federal layoffs, slashed foreign aid and preserved the ability to reorganize the Education Department. Democrats believe they got as good a deal as possible on accountability for ICE and research and health care funding. The spin war matters: If Congress is going to avoid a shutdown, each side needs to feel like they won something. The Trump officials insisted their rescissions and threats of spending impoundment motivated Congress to move, and it’s hard to argue with that.

— Burgess Everett

Primary threats mount for US senators

Rep. Julia Letlow’s challenge to Sen. Bill Cassidy in Louisiana’s GOP primary has the map shaping up to be a little like 2010, when three sitting senators lost their primaries. This year, Cassidy is one of three senators facing major primary challengers. The group includes Sen. Ed Markey, who faces a challenge from Rep. Seth Moulton in Massachusetts’ Democratic primary, and Sen. John Cornyn, who is battling state Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt in the Texas Republican primary. It’s been a while — nine years — since an incumbent senator lost a primary. Both parties’ campaign arms are lining up for their incumbents: Trump is supporting Letlow, and the National Republican Senatorial Committee and GOP leaders are behind both Cassidy and Cornyn (Trump is neutral in Texas), while the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is backing Markey.

— Burgess Everett

Blindspot: ICE arrests and Trump protests

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem claimed her department has arrested more than 10,000 “criminal illegal aliens” in Minnesota.

What the Right isn’t reading: California Gov. Gavin Newsom implored Europeans to “stand up” to President Trump during remarks to reporters at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

Nikesh Arora, Chairman and CEO, Palo Alto Networks is joining the Semafor World Economy Global Advisory Board — a forum of visionary business leaders guiding the largest gathering of global CEOs in the US. The expanded board represents nearly every sector across the US and G20.

Joining the Advisory Board at this year’s convening will be our inaugural cohort of Semafor World Economy Principals — an editorially curated community of innovators, policymakers, and changemakers shaping the new world economy with front-row access to Semafor’s world-class journalism, meaningful opportunities for dialogue, and touchpoints designed for connection-building. Applications are now open.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Secretary of State Marco Rubio will address lawmakers publicly for the first time next week on the US’ removal of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.

Playbook: A poll commissioned by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee puts former Rep. Mary Peltola two points ahead of Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, in the Alaska Senate race.

WaPo: The executive director of the Maine Republican Party said he doesn’t think a Trump endorsement is necessary for Senator Susan Collins, R-Maine, to hold onto her seat.

Axios: “Future historians won’t need to reconstruct this week. They’ll have the footage. The question is whether we understand what we’re watching.”

White House