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Trading Day

Trading Day

Making sense of the forces driving global markets

 

By Jamie McGeever, Reuters Open Interest Markets Columnist 

 

U.S. stocks jumped and Treasury yields fell on Wednesday after President Donald Trump said a framework of an agreement over Greenland had been reached, and that tariffs on several European countries scheduled for February 1 will no longer be imposed.

I’d love to hear from you, so please reach out to me with comments at jamie.mcgeever@thomsonreuters.com. You can also follow me at @ReutersJamie and @reutersjamie.bsky.social. 

 

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Today's Key Market Moves

  • STOCKS: A patchy global rebound, but Wall Street leaps on Trump's Greenland breakthrough. Brazil +3%, South Korea and China up too, but Japan slides again and Europe ends mixed.
  • SECTORS/SHARES: All 11 sectors on the S&P 500 rise, led by energy +2.4%. Six others rise 1% or more. Moderna +16%, Intel +12%.
  • FX: Dollar index recovers ground, USD gains most vs safe-haven CHF. Risk-on mood boosts emerging FX - CLP, BRL, KRW all up ~1%. Bitcoin rebounds, ends +1%.
  • BONDS: U.S. yields down as much as 5 bps at the long end, also helped by solid 20-year auction. Long-dated JGBs bounce back from Tuesday's selloff, yields fall as much as 17 bps.
  • COMMODITIES/METALS: Big divergence in precious metals - gold nears $5,000/oz but pares gains, silver -3%. Oil +0.5%.
 

Today's key reads

  1. ECB's Lagarde says European economy needs 'deep review' to face new world order
  2. Treasury jolt may be Trump's kryptonite: Mike Dolan
  3. US Supreme Court considers Trump's bid to fire Fed's Lisa Cook
  4. Intel results to spotlight turnaround efforts as AI data centers boost chip demand
  5. Japan may struggle to calm markets tripped up by Takaichi's taboo tax cut
 

Today's Talking Points

* US-European transatlantic drift

U.S. President Donald Trump's Davos address was highly critical of Europe, but he said the US would not use force to take Greenland from fellow-NATO ally Denmark. In that sense, US-Europe tensions cooled slightly, and an agreement on Greenland appears to have been reached.

But the US-European alliance is at its lowest ebb in 80 years. In Davos, ECB President Christine Lagarde walked out of a dinner during a speech by U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called Denmark "irrelevant". As Canada's Mark Carney noted in reference to the world at large, "We are in the midst of a rupture." 

* Trump Fed firing hopes in the balance

The likelihood of President Trump firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook seems to be diminishing, after U.S. Supreme Court justices on Wednesday signaled their skepticism that Cook should be dismissed while her legal challenge to mortgage fraud allegations play out.

This is one of two fronts that have opened up in what many say is a battle over the central bank's independence, the other being the Trump administration's indictment of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Long-term interest rates and risk premia could fall if the courts rule against Trump.  

* Wall St tries to rein in Trump

It's not just European leaders, NATO officials and Mark Carney expressing varying degrees of exasperation with President Trump in Davos. Wall Street executives are too. 

JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Trump's proposal to cap credit card interest rates would be an "economic disaster". Other executives are also skeptical of Trump's interventionist measures aimed at tackling the affordability crisis, and are in talks with the White House to try and soften the rough edges.

 
 

What could move markets tomorrow?

  • World Economic Forum in Davos
  • Australia unemployment (December)
  • Japan trade (December)
  • South Korea GDP (Q4, advance)
  • Malaysia interest rate decision
  • U.S. Treasury sells $21 billion of 10-year TIPS at auction
  • U.S. weekly jobless claims
  • U.S. GDP (Q3, final)
  • U.S. PCE inflation (November)
  • U.S. earnings, including Proctor & Gamble, Intel, General Electric, Capital One, Freeport McMoran
 

Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

 

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