The latest from CFR’s RealEcon Initiative
RealEcon

From the Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies

Credit: Elia Barbieri/The Guardian

 Credit: Elia Barbieri/The Guardian

Want to Stop Trump Bullying Your Country? Retaliate

Faced with economic coercion, Europe has trodden carefully—but a cautious response is not enough, writes CFR Fellow and Director of the Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Edward Fishman for the Guardian. Read his take

Tracking Trump’s Trade Deals

The president has set out to rewrite the rules of trade, one deal at a time. CFR Fellow Inu Manak and Associate Director for Geoeconomics Allison J. Smith created a tracker that breaks down the content of the deals to date. See the highlights

US President Donald Trump during a signing ceremony for a document on the implementation of the US Japan trade deal with Sanae Takaichi, Japan’s prime minister, not photographed, at Akasaka Palace state guest house in Tokyo, Japan, on Tuesday, Oct. 28, 2025. Kiyoshi Ota/Pool via REUTERS

U.S.-Taiwan Trade Agreement Leaves Major Questions Open

The U.S.-Taiwan Reciprocal Trade Agreement should provide welcome stability to bilateral economic ties, but differences over the trade balance, semiconductor manufacturing, and currency intervention will remain, explain CFR Fellow David Sacks and Research Associate Steven Honig. Read more

A wafer can be seen as taiwanese chip giant TSMC holds a ceremony to start mass production of its most advanced 3-nanometer chips in the southern city of Tainan, Taiwan December 29, 2022. Ann Wang/REUTERS

The House Votes to Rein in Trump’s Canada Tariffs

The passage of the resolution revoking the president’s national emergency declaration is a symbolic victory that shows why Congress struggles to constrain presidents, writes CFR Fellow James M. Lindsay. Learn more

A transport truck drives across the U.S.-Canada border at Fort Erie Ontario, Canada, April 2, 2025. REUTERS/Carlos Osorio

Trade Fun Fact 

How many countries has the United States struck trade deals with since Liberation Day, as of February 18, 2026? 

Answer at the bottom of the newsletter

Japan’s Heavy Metal PM, Political Threats to Markets, and China’s Sad Horse

On CFR’s new weekly podcast, which follows the ripple effects of global events, Fellows Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby examine the “fragile four” economies—the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, and France—and why politics is increasingly spilling into financial markets.  

Listen
The Spillover

Featured From the Greenberg Center

This Is What Convinced Me OpenAI Will Run Out of Money

The big question in 2026 is whether capital markets can adequately finance artificial intelligence’s development. Companies such as OpenAI are likely to run out of cash before their tantalizing new technology produces big profits, writes Mallaby for the New York Times. Read his op-ed

Open AI and Anthropic logos are seen in this illustration created on September 12, 2025. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

Global Growth Tracker: World Economies by GDP

This tracker by CFR Fellow Benn Steil charts the economic growth performance through time of ninety-one countries around the globe. Hover over each country on the map to see its latest growth data. 

Global Growth Tracker: World Economies by GDP

Leapfrogging China’s Critical Minerals Dominance

In the latest Council Special Report from CFR and Silverado Policy Accelerator, CFR Fellow Heidi Crebo-Rediker and Silverado’s Vice President of Policy for Critical Supply Chains Mahnaz Khan assert that the United States can leapfrog China’s critical minerals dominance by scaling disruptive innovation, recovery, and recycling.

Read the report
Council Special Report: Leapfrogging China’s Critical Minerals Dominance

In the News

Heidi Crebo-Rediker quoted in Trump Aides Urged Sale of Congo Lithium Claim to a U.S. Company (Bloomberg) 

 

Edward Fishman featured in China Deal Will “Loom” Over Canada-U.S. Trade Talks: Ex-State Department Official (Calgary Herald) 

 

Kenneth I. Juster featured in Historic First Phase of India-US Trade Deal Sets Stage for FTA: Former Envoy (MSN)

 

Edward Alden featured in Canada’s New Reality (The World newsletter, New York Times) 

CFR Events 

The Economic Outlook for 2026 (January 27) with Google Chief Economist Fabien Curto Millet, Nasdaq Chief Economist and Senior Vice President Phil Mackintosh, Mastercard Economics Institute Chief Economist Michelle Meyer, and Patterson (presider) 

 

C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics With John C. Williams of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (January 12) and Columbia Business School Professor Abby Joseph Cohen (presider)

 

World Economic Update (January 7) with Goldman Sachs Group Chief Economist and Head of Global Investment Research Jan Hatzius, Bridgewater Associates Cochief Investment Officer Karen Karniol-Tambour, Yale Law School Professor Natasha Sarin, and Mallaby (presider)

Trade Fun Fact

How many countries has the United States struck trade deals with since Liberation Day, as of February 18, 2026? 

Answer: Eighteen countries