It’s hard to believe, but we are officially six months away from the first votes being cast in the Democratic primary for Rhode Island governor between incumbent Dan McKee and challenger Helena Foulkes.

While primary day is Sept. 8, early voting – both mail and in-person – will begin Aug. 19. That’s significant because nearly 20 percent of all votes cast in the 2022 Democratic primary, which McKee won with Foulkes finishing second, came during the early voting period.

That means it won’t be long before we see McKee and Foulkes on the air with television ads and debates begin appearing on the calendar. (It would be good to see WPRI and WJAR each host at least one debate before early voting begins and another just before primary day.)

The bigger picture: There are likely to be other candidates. Businessman Greg Stevens says he plans to run as a Democrat, while the Republican primary is expected to include Aaron Guckian, Elaine Pelino, and Robert Raimondo.

But the main event appears to be the rematch between McKee and Foulkes, now that House Speaker Joe Shekarchi has officially announced he will not enter the race.

In many ways, the contest looks much like it did a year ago. McKee continues to frame Foulkes as a corporate executive who held a senior role at CVS while thousands of Americans were dying from opioid overdoses. Foulkes, meanwhile, plans to use the Washington Bridge fiasco to argue that McKee’s administration is incompetent and overwhelmed.

What we know is that both candidates are getting the race they were hoping for.

McKee needed the Shekarchi speculation to end in order to solidify support from many (though not all) union leaders across the state. He will again benefit from strong backing in his Blackstone Valley base and will seek to persuade left-leaning voters that he is a true Democrat while casting Foulkes as too close to the capitalist class.

The Foulkes campaign also sees a clear path forward. She lost to McKee by just three percentage points in 2022, and that was with then–secretary of state Nellie Gorbea capturing 26 percent of the vote to finish third. Foulkes is expected to win the bulk of Gorbea’s supporters this time around, and when combined with lingering East Bay anger over the Washington Bridge, that may be enough to put her over the top.

What we don’t have yet is reliable public polling to show where the race truly stands. On prediction markets, Kalshi currently gives Foulkes a 72 percent chance of winning the primary, while Polymarket puts her at 71 percent – a measure of her likelihood of winning, not the share of the vote she is expected to receive. Wagering volume remains relatively light on both platforms, limiting how much weight those numbers can carry.

Still, the calendar is moving quickly.

Let the race begin.