Four years have now passed since Vladimir Putin announced the beginning of what he called a “special military operation” in Ukraine. This operation has hardened into Europe’s deadliest conflict since the second world war, with the frontlines having been effectively frozen in the east of the country for the past two years.

In many ways, the war’s duration has come as a surprise. Western intelligence analysts widely predicted that Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, would fall within days of the invasion. This is a view shared by four regular contributors to our coverage of Ukraine who, in this piece, reflect on what has surprised them most about the conflict so far and offer their view on where it may be headed next.

War poetry has been woven into Ukrainian culture for centuries, and since the outbreak of the war it has experienced a revival. Hugh Roberts of the University of Exeter picks out two names that, in his view, stand for the Ukrainian poetic renaissance: Yaryna Chornohuz and Artur Dron.

Elsewhere, we examine why Andrew’s arrest isn’t the worst crisis the monarchy has faced by a long way.