What’s going on: The US economy had a supposed secret weapon last year: AI. Some economists argued that Big Tech’s AI splurge fueled half or more of US growth in 2025. It sounded tidy. It sounded futuristic. It sounded inevitable. But now, a growing number of forecasters are pushing back — and even those who believed the hype are reconsidering. Goldman Sachs recently calculated that AI spending made “basically zero” difference to US economic growth last year, according to The Washington Post. Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase have landed roughly in the same place. Which would explain a lot, actually, for anyone who hasn’t felt this so-called boom.
What it means: The AI economy still sits in the “trust the process” phase. It could spark a golden age. It could carve up the labor market. Right now, no one can prove either case. Part of the problem: Earlier estimates missed where the money actually goes. Roughly three-quarters of data center costs are for chips and hardware made overseas, according to the Post. That boosts factories abroad more than it helps Main Street. Add in a tariff-driven import surge early in 2025, and AI may have looked more important than it was. One Goldman Sachs economist said the intuitive outlook “maybe prevented or limited the need to actually dig deeper into what was happening.” Someone let the rest of Wall Street know, since it went into a full-on spiral over this hypothetical AI doomsday report.
