What If the Mullahs Are Smarter Than Trump?

1. #SquadGoals

We are beginning to get a sense of the strategic objectives for the three belligerents in the Iran War.

Israel wants to weaken Iran militarily, economically, and politically to the point that can only threaten Israel’s security through small-bore, non-state freelancers. Israel is prepared to deal with small terror networks so long as it can eliminate Iran’s ability to be a state sponsor of terrorism (and its nuclear and missile programs which can threaten Israel directly). In order to do that, Israel needs either a new Iranian regime or for “Iran” to no longer exist as a coherent, sovereign state.

Israel cannot achieve this result on its own. It has superior clandestine capabilities which allow it to kill high-value targets. But even the joint U.S.–Israeli onslaught isn’t enough to prevent Iran from launching missiles into Tel Aviv—meaning that Israeli power on its own definitely wouldn’t be enough. So Israel’s secondary objective is to keep America engaged in the war.

America wants to advance the personal and political fortunes of Donald J. Trump. At the moment, the Trump regime believes this objective will be achieved by destroying as much Iranian military infrastructure as possible, as quickly as possible, with as little disruption to U.S. economic life as possible. America wants to advance to a position from which Trump can claim victory before the economic and political costs to Trump manifest.

At the moment, the United States believes that by splosionmaxxing Iranian weapons, industrial facilities, and infrastructure, Trump will be able to spike the football and leave the arena at his earliest convenience while maintaining his narrative of dominance.

Which brings us, finally, to Iran. And I’m going to tip my hand from the start: The Iranians seem to have a better understanding of economic and political reality than the American leadership does. Their objectives are more rational and their strategy is more aligned with achieving these objectives.

Here’s the short version: The American regime thinks war is about ultra-lethal alpha warriors blowing shit up. The Iranian regime understands that war is actually about logistics and political will.

I am concerned that that the U.S. is playing checkers, while Iran plays chess.

I am concerned that our commander-in-chief is being outsmarted by a bunch of medieval religious nutjobs.

Now here’s the long version . . ...