Trump faces multiplying dangers from Iran war

Naser Safarzadeh/WANA

Week two: The U.S.-Israel attacks killed the supreme leader and hurt Iranian forces, but a prolonged military engagement and a regional conflict threaten fallout beyond Donald Trump’s control. His struggle to articulate a detailed set of goals or a clear endgame and the risk of American casualties and economic costs could shake his influence on MAGA supporters. Then again, maybe the White House's use of SpongeBob SquarePants, Iron Man and Call of Duty memes will do the trick.
‘Unconditional surrender’: The president’s call for Tehran to capitulate could make it more difficult to negotiate a swift end to the fighting. Iran apologized to its neighbors after strikes on Gulf Arab civilian targets. The war is rattling businesses worldwide and raising questions about trade routes critical to the flow of goods from food to clothing. Our daily Iran newsletter will keep you updated better than your humble narrator ever could.

Israel mounts rare airborne raid on Lebanon

16 killed: Lebanon is plunging deeper into the Middle East conflict now that Hezbollah has launched rockets and drones into Israel. The group has been rearming for months, sources say. The St. Joseph Tabaris Parish in Beirut is sheltering some of the 300,000 people displaced across Lebanon this week.
Proxies: Iran has spent years cultivating fighters in Iraq for just such a moment as what we’re seeing in the Middle East. It hasn’t worked out remotely as they hoped.

The fug of war: A disappointing payrolls report suggests a cooling economy, and energy costs could stay high for weeks or months. Qatar's energy minister told the Financial Times that the price of oil could rise to $150 a barrel. Oil options and futures show that traders think the supply shock will be fleeting. These graphics illustrate the Iran war’s effect on financial markets.
Pay up, drivers: U.S. retail prices for gasoline and diesel are soaring as the war chokes exports. Trump told our reporter he’s OK with that, but the administration is leaning on government agencies to do something about it – preferably without congressional approval.

Money laundering: Hungary said the bank employees were carrying $82 million in cash and gold, while Kyiv accused its neighbor of taking them hostage as a fight between the countries over oil shipments deepens. Volodymyr Zelenskiy taunted his counterpart Viktor Orbán over Hungary’s blocking of 90 billion euros in aid to Ukraine.
Ukraine latest: Russian drone and missile strikes killed at least seven people in Kharkiv, including two children. Zelenskiy said Ukraine will help the U.S. following its request for help in dealing with Iranian drones.

Check back in 45 days: The U.S. customs agency says it’s preparing a system within the next six weeks or so to process refunds on Trump’s tariffs after the Supreme Court ruled them illegal. For some small businesses, getting a refund isn’t worth the pain of pursuing them. And for those that do, there’s a little-known U.S. court that has experience in this area.
Lawsuits and navigation: Twenty-four U.S. states sued the administration over his newly imposed 10% tariffs, saying he can’t sidestep the court’s ruling. European companies are striving to adapt to whipsaw changes in U.S. tariff policy. Retailers are struggling to do the same.

‘Stephen is a survivor’: Kristi Noem might have tanked her tenure at Homeland Security over heavy-handed tactics, a $220 million ad campaign and turmoil within the department, but Stephen Miller retains control of the issue. ICE arrested a reporter working for a Nashville news outlet without a warrant.
Troublesome judges: Trump and his allies have derided federal judges as rogues, crooks and lunatics, casting their actions as not just incorrect, but illegitimate. Our analysis reveals a systematic effort by the administration to use the Supreme Court to diminish the power of the judiciary at large.