EDITOR’S NOTE Good morning. And if you went out drinking last night, good afternoon. Today’s edition is all about sobriety: how it’s impacting the booze business, why young people are avoiding alcohol, the rise of “California sober,” and whether the bar is still the networking hub it used to be. So, kick back, relax, crack open some coconut water, and read on to learn everything you ever needed to know about the teetotaling trend. |
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STATE OF THE BOOZIN’ Boozemakers are about as content as someone arriving at a wedding to find out that it’s dry. Alcohol sales are slumping, as many young people trade tipsiness for non-alcoholic drinks and become stoners instead proclaim themselves “California sober.” The teetotalism trend is fueled by rising health consciousness, more studies showing the harms of even moderate drinking, weight loss drugs reducing drinking desires, and tightening budgets. According to Gallup, only 54% of Americans said they consumed alcohol last year, the lowest since the analytics company began polling in 1939. And surveys from abroad suggest the trend is global. To add insult to injury, President Trump’s trade wars have led to Canadian boycotts and many Europeans opting for domestic drinking options, stymying the flow of drink across borders. Iconic brands feel the imbibing recession As the global blood-alcohol content level hits an all-time low, alcohol companies worldwide are facing some sobering realities: - Global wine-sipping dropped 12% between 2020 and 2024 to the lowest rate in over six decades, as weather events impacted production and drove up prices. Several California wineries shuttered this year, while a recent government survey showed that 20% of French vineyards were considering closing.
- Sales for the British spirits juggernaut Diageo—which owns Guinness, Smirnoff, and Johnnie Walker—dropped by almost 3% in the first half of this fiscal year.
- Jim Beam paused distillation for a year at its flagship facility in Kentucky amid a global bourbon glut. And MGP, the Kentucky-based distiller for famed brands like Bulleit, saw its sales drop 24% last year as bourbon purveyors cut production.
- Heineken is cutting 6,000 jobs after selling 1.2% fewer liters of beer in 2025 than in the previous year.
Investors betting on booze are in the red, too. The market cap of the world’s top publicly listed alcohol producers was down 46% last fall from its peak in June 2021, according to Bloomberg. But some drinks are thriving alongside sobriety…with US sales of cheap tequila and premixed cocktails growing in the past year. Plus, while people are drinking less at home, spending at bars was up 4% in January from the same time last year, according to data from the Bank of America Institute.—SK | | |
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BUZZ-LIGHT YEARS After thousands of years of drinking alcohol, are humans finally calling it a night? According to a 2025 Gallup poll, only about half of US adults ages 18–34 reported imbibing. That’s a nine-point drop from 2023, and puts it below the drinking rate of middle-aged and older adults (ages 35 and up). The Hangover trilogy seems to be getting less relatable with each passing day. What’s the deal? There isn’t one big reason why younger adults are steering clear of the hard stuff. It’s more like a multi-ingredient mocktail: - Gen Z is more likely to believe that moderate drinking is bad for your health, per Gallup.
- Younger Americans aren’t socializing in person as often as they used to. Fewer get-togethers typically mean less drinking.
- Legalized marijuana use, an older legal drinking age, and alcohol’s evolving social reputation could also be having an impact, according to experts who spoke to Time magazine.
Bar Trek: The Next Generation: Bars, nightclubs, and concert venues have had to adjust to Gen Z’s non-drinking habit by offering a wider selection of alcohol-free drinks and focusing more on the vibe than the booze. Bars have also had to contend with Gen Z’s penchant for not opening bar tabs. Why leave your card at the bar when you’re only going to have one or two drinks? But when people close out more often, bartenders lose time and money. And the establishments, which pay credit card fees on every swipe, lose some of their margin.—BC | | |
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SHAKE IT, CALI Those who don’t like to drink booze but still need a buzz at the end of a long week are increasingly embracing the “California sober” lifestyle, which shuns alcohol and embraces cannabis as a so-called “healthier” alternative that doesn’t come with hangovers. Sparking up a joint or splitting an edible with a friend doesn’t come with the same risks as alcohol consumption, studies show: - Per the CDC, more than 170,000 people die every year from excessive drinking. That includes deaths related to chronic drinking and from consuming too much alcohol on one occasion.
- According to an NIH study, deaths from marijuana toxicity are “negligible,” though the DEA reports that there has been an increase in emergency room visits due to misuse of edibles.
That doesn’t make it harmless, however. Driving under its influence is as dangerous and illegal as getting behind the wheel after too many drinks. The negative health impacts of marijuana are still being explored. Overall rising: A Gallup poll from 2024 reported that 15% of all Americans have smoked marijuana, a small increase over the previous year. Friendly reminder that recreational marijuana usage remains federally illegal in the US… Young people are sold A 2023 survey from the NIH found that as of 2022, 44% of adults between the ages of 19 and 30 said they had used marijuana in the past year, a record high (not an intentional pun). Drink it in: Forget magic brownies and bongs—domestic sales of beverages with THC reached $850 million in 2025. A recent survey from Drug Rehab USA said 1 in 3 Gen Zers and millennials are regularly choosing marijuana drinks over alcoholic ones.—DL | | |
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CLOSED TAB The Mad Men era may have walked so that Silicon Valley’s infamous party culture could run, but nowadays, the tech world’s social scene may be more akin to downward dog. Between grueling work schedules and a broader interest in wellness, countless young professionals are rejecting alcohol-centric schmoozing and embracing more health-focused activities. Numbers don’t lie. Per a 2025 Gallup survey, for the first time on record, more than half of Americans say moderate drinking is unhealthy, up from 45% in 2024. So while many young tech workers may have been born too late to mingle over martinis, they’re here just in time to hit the cold plunge together after ripping an 80-hour work week. The Wall Street Journal reported that: - The typical 20-something founder who embraces the “996” workplace trend may only log off for an exercise class or to sweat with colleagues at a bathhouse. One 23-year-old AI founder told the publication, “Why would I go drink at a bar if I can be building a company?”
- Some investors and venture capitalists are tired of meeting over dinner or drinks, which has allowed so-called “social saunas” to flourish. These sweat boxes—which have appeared in New York and San Francisco in recent years—fit dozens of people, encourage conversation, and sometimes have nightclub-like lighting.
While the pandemic may have dented happy-hour culture, government influence also appears to be playing a part here. The former US surgeon general kicked off 2025 by calling for cigarette-like warnings on alcohol. And while the new MAHA-inspired food pyramid actually softened alcohol guidance from 1-2 drinks per day to simply “less alcohol,” neither President Trump nor Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. partake themselves. Many such cases: Other prominent teetotalers who may be inspiring young entrepreneurs to put down the beer and lock in include: Bryan Johnson (the live-forever guy), Joe Rogan (who stopped drinking last year), Warren Buffett, Larry Ellison, and Marc Andreessen, who was in part inspired to quit alcohol by the podcasting neuroscientist Andrew Huberman.—ML | | |
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LATE NIGHTS If sober bars manage to make their floors as sticky as traditional bars, the hospitality industry may never be the same. What started predominantly as niche spaces for sober folks in recovery to gather, non-alcoholic bars are now popping up more frequently around the US as consumers search for lower ABV options. Sober bars are still a relatively new concept. Several have popped up in cities including Los Angeles, Columbus, Ohio, Atlanta, and Denver since the pandemic. The oldest ones—like Sans Bar in Austin, TX, and Listen Bar in NYC—have been around for just under a decade. Because they don’t have financially loose drunk people ordering rounds of shots, these businesses can have tighter margins. Many offer food and coffee, while others host events, and some, like Hekate in NYC, have a boozy sister bar in their portfolio. It appears that the best bet for bars is to cater to both drinkers and teetotalers: - In 2024, spots that generated at least $2 million annually reported revenue boosts of $95,000 after expanding their NA drink menus.
- The sober-curious are bolstering the industry: 92% of people who bought NA products last year also bought traditional alcohol.
People want to be regulars. While alcohol retail sales dropped an average of 5% last year, customers spent 4% more at bars, according to data from the Bank of America Institute. The bank’s analysis suggests that consumers (especially Gen Zers) still value the social aspect of bars—they just aren’t interested in being hungover the next day.—MM | | |
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