Greetings,

The Trump administration is showing its determination to reestablish its tariff regime, launching a fresh investigation into more than a dozen major economies that will (almost surely) tee up new levies on the US's most important trading parters. Check out the coverage below.

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The US has launched a trade investigation into more than a dozen countries, including China, the EU and Mexico, to examine allegations of excess manufacturing capacity, setting the stage for new tariffs. The probe, under Section 301 of the Trade Act, follows a Supreme Court decision that struck down previous tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump.

The International Energy Agency reports that the war in Iran has caused the largest oil market disruption in history, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has choked off oil and gas flows. The IEA estimates global oil supply will drop by 8 million barrels per day this month and has agreed to release 400 million barrels from emergency reserves to mitigate the impact.

ExxonMobil chief economist Tyler Goodspeed, in his book "Recession: The Real Reasons Economies Shrink and What to Do About It," challenges conventional wisdom on recessions by arguing that they are primarily caused by sudden, overlapping shocks to sectors such as energy and food, rather than by overheated booms. Goodspeed says that more than a single crisis is necessary to trigger a recession, but the risk increases significantly if conflicts disrupt oil supplies for an extended period.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the U.S.-Iran conflict has halted oil shipments, prompting the International Energy Agency to release 400 million barrels from reserves. The disruption affects not only oil but also aluminum, fertilizer, and other goods, leading to rising prices and supply chain challenges. Major shipping companies have suspended Middle East routes, and experts warn of potential higher retail prices and reduced economic activity if the situation persists.

The consumer price index rose 2.4% year over year in February, matching expectations, with core CPI up 2.5%, but the figures were collected before an oil price surge related to the war in Iran. Consumer prices increased 0.3% from the previous month, while core prices increased 0.2%. "CPI inflation for February was along expectations, but this is the calm before the storm that will show up due to surging gasoline prices in March," said Sonu Varghese, chief macro strategist at Carson Group.

Apollo Global Management aims to report monthly on its private credit funds' net asset values, with the ultimate goal of providing daily reporting on NAVs and third-party valuations, said John Zito, co-president of Apollo's asset management unit. The move comes amid rising requests for redemptions from private credit funds as concerns over defaults and AI-driven disruption are increasing.

JPMorgan Chase is reducing its exposure to the private credit industry by marking down the value of loans held as collateral, particularly those made to software firms. This move, driven by concerns about potential turbulence from AI advancements by OpenAI and Anthropic, aims to mitigate risk in the bank's financing business. The markdowns decrease the borrowing capacity of private credit firms, potentially requiring additional collateral.