Good evening. Tonight we’re diving into one of the most dramatic Republican primaries on the map — and examining what it may tell us about President Trump’s power.
Can this leading Republican critic of Trump hang on?
There are very few Republican politicians left in Congress willing to openly disagree with President Trump. But Representative Thomas Massie seems to relish it. The libertarian-leaning Kentuckian, who led the charge within the Republican Party to release the Epstein files, has also broken with the White House on issues including federal spending and the war in Iran. As a result, he has made an enemy of the most powerful man in Republican politics. Whether Massie can withstand a well-funded, Trump-backed primary challenge — the president is supporting Ed Gallrein — in May will be an important test of how much room there is to break with the president in Trump’s Republican Party. My colleague Catie Edmondson caught up with Massie in Kentucky, reporting out the tensions in this race from a cattle pen at his farm. She told me more about this wild and colorful contest over Slack. Our conversation, condensed and edited, is below. Catie, I have a lot of questions for you, but first I must ask — what was it like to report from the cattle pen at Massie’s farm? I’ve covered Massie for a while and have heard about this off-the-grid farm for years, so it felt like a real moment getting to see it all in person. It says a lot about his personality — the kind of libertarian self-sufficiency, the interest in inventing new gadgets on the farm. But dodging cow pies while reporting was a definitely first! Were you literally standing in a cow pen talking to him? How did that work? Yeah, we got the full tour! You wrote that Massie sees this race as “a test case for whether any shred of independence can survive in today’s G.O.P.” Do national Republicans also think, or perhaps worry, that a Massie victory would create more political space to dissent from Trump? He told me that he thinks if he wins, it will embolden his colleagues to oppose Trump on policy issues they truly care about. That being said, and what I hope came through in the piece, is that Massie, and his relationship to his district, are unique. Even if he wins, I’m not sure how many of his colleagues would rush to follow his lead given how much outside money is being spent against him. Are there other Republican primaries you’re watching that are shaped by similar tensions over Trump, even if not to the same degree? Most congressional Republicans go out of their way not to get on Trump’s bad side, because they’re worried that their voters will turn on them for being insufficiently loyal. A lot of the G.O.P. primaries we’re seeing now aren’t necessarily framed through the lens of Trump, but whether they are seen as sufficiently partisan. The primary that’s probably most explicitly about Trump is the Louisiana Senate primary, where Representative Julia Letlow is challenging Senator Bill Cassidy, who voted to convict Trump in the second impeachment trial revolving around the president’s conduct on Jan. 6, 2021. I remember talking to Cassidy right after he cast that vote and being struck by how angered he was by the violence he witnessed at the Capitol that day. I was in Louisiana earlier this year and the frustration with Cassidy among conservative voters was still palpable, years later. Anyway, back to Kentucky. Massie has been outspoken in his opposition to the war in Iran. Did this come up at all with voters? There was a bit of chatter in the crowd at the local county party luncheon that he spoke at. It was interesting that none of the many candidates who spoke brought it up, except for Representative Andy Barr, who received some blank stares as he gave an update on the situation and emphasized the briefings he receives as a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee. The biggest round of applause adjacent to this issue was when Massie said he never votes for any foreign aid to any country. There were some small jeers in the crowd when Iran was mentioned, but the audience was definitely more engaged on discussion about legislation Republicans are backing around voter ID and transgender kids playing sports. Do you have any sense of how close the Massie race is? This is the question everyone was asking after I got back, and I hate making these kinds of predictions! Polling is not abundant in races like these, and it’s always tricky when you’re talking about such a small group of voters. There is an adage in some political circles that the candidate having the most fun wins. I will not take this as a prediction, but it sounds like Massie, the meme king, is having fun? He certainly is. Well, I had a lot of fun reading your story. Is there anything else you think readers should understand about this race? Massie is obviously a singular figure, but he is also an increasingly rare breed in a G.O.P. Congress that is modeling itself in Trump’s image — from how they speak to how they campaign. That’s why I think whether he can survive this onslaught is so significant. Say more about the significance. Both he and Senator Rand Paul, also of Kentucky and a friend of his, talked about his race as being a litmus test for whether the entire Republican-controlled Congress becomes a rubber stamp of the executive branch. That’s why I think it’s a symbolically important contest. I know the congressman has strong feelings about things like raw milk (he’s a fan.). Did he introduce you to any local delicacies while you were out there? We sampled some pecans from his trees!
QUOTE OF THE DAY “I love you more than you could ever hate me.”That was James Talarico, the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas, responding to a pastor who had suggested he should be “crucified with Christ.” The pastor said he had not called for Talarico’s death, but rather called for him to have a religious conversion. My colleagues Tim Balk and Elizabeth Dias have more. Got a tip? ONE NUMBER
46 percentThat’s the share of voters who say gas prices have been a serious problem for them, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll. Ruth Igielnik, The Times’s polling editor, explains. As gas prices continue to spike, more than half of political independents and 27 percent of Republicans say the cost of gasoline is a serious problem for themselves and their families. This comes as President Trump faces dismal public sentiment surrounding the economy. Just 38 percent of voters approve of his handling of it, and 34 percent describe the current economy as excellent or good. Trump continues to have solid backing with rank-and-file Republicans on the issue: 86 percent of Republicans approve of his handling of the economy and 72 percent think the economy is in good shape.
REDISTRICTING Virginia’s gerrymandering battleThe battle to redraw Virginia’s congressional maps is intensifying. Early voting is already underway for the April 21 statewide referendum, which will decide whether Democrats can redraw the state’s map. The stakes are significant, and as my colleagues Campbell Robertson and Theodore Schleifer report, Democrats are spending big.
TAKE OUR QUIZ This question comes from a recent article in The Times. Click an answer to see if you’re right. (The link will be free.) Which pop culture landmark did Trump visit this week? Read past editions of the newsletter here. If you’re enjoying what you’re reading, please consider recommending it to others. They can sign up here. Have feedback? Ideas for coverage? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.
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