Good morning. President Trump told a group of Republicans that he wanted them to crack down on “rogue judges.” He has been escalating his attacks on the judiciary. (Some jurists are using fiery rhetoric themselves.) And the war in Iran continues to disrupt the global economy. We’ll start there.
Deal pointsWhat will it take to end this war in Iran? The United States demands an end to Iran’s nuclear program, which Iran has historically rejected. President Trump also wants the Strait of Hormuz reopened to global trade. An Iranian official said yesterday that Iran would not allow Trump “to dictate the timing of the war’s end,” insisting that the conflict could end only on Tehran’s terms. Those include reparations for damages, a recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, an end to sanctions and a wider cease-fire for the region that protects Hezbollah, the Lebanese armed group backed by Iran. Each nation insisted that it had the upper hand in the conflict and that the other was desperate for a way out. As if to answer Tehran’s terms, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel yesterday ordered a 48-hour push to destroy as much of the Iranian arms industry as possible, according to two senior Israeli officials. And Trump dispatched about 2,000 paratroopers to the Middle East to expand his military options. Iran, for its part, launched cruise missile attacks on the U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier. It’s still a hot war. But this is how negotiations go: proposals and counterproposals amid the shooting. Both Iranian and U.S. officials signaled that they would consider meeting in Pakistan to discuss peace, according to our reporting. Islamabad proposed dates as soon as this weekend, and Trump said he’d send his usual negotiators, Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. But who would stand for Iran? Israelis have killed much of its leadership. (Trump said his administration was talking to a “top guy,” but it wasn’t Mojtaba Khamenei, the new supreme leader.) Iranian and Pakistani officials said that Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s Parliament, had discussed peace efforts with Pakistan. The choke pointThe Strait of Hormuz will run through the center of any negotiations. Before the war began, a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil and a fifth of its gas sailed through the waterway. Then Iran shut it down, stopping the energy supply cold. This has set off economic shock waves that land on shores far from the Middle East. The U.S. wants the strait open and is looking for safe passage through its waters for itself and its allies like Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Iran sent a letter to the United Nations saying that “nonhostile” ships — that is, ones not owned by the United States or Israel — could now safely pass through the strait. And Trump said this week that Iran had offered him a “very big present” related to oil and gas, though he did not elaborate. (Was it the letter?)
In the illustration above, you can see where the oil and gas come from in the Strait of Hormuz. In the one below, you can see where it goes — mostly to Asia, though even nations not heavily dependent on Gulf oil and gas have felt the effects. Click to see the details:
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