Dear friends and colleagues:
The CFR Global Monetary Policy Tracker is updated through April 2.
The global loosening phase which our Tracker dates back to June 2024 has ended. With our algorithm now reclassifying the Fed and BoE from loosening to neutral, our CFR Index of Global Easing (-)/Tightening (+) shoots up from -5.65/10 to 0.22/10: near-perfect neutrality.
The only reserve-currency issuing central bank to move its policy rate over the past month is the Reserve Bank of Australia, which hiked from 3.85% to 4.1%. The Fed held at 3.63%, the ECB at 2%, the PBoC at 3%, the BoJ at 0.75%, the BoE at 3.75%, and the Bank of Canada at 2.25%.
Since the start of the Iran War, the market odds of a Fed rate cut this year have plummeted from about 75% to 20%.
Please be sure also to check out our CFR Global Inflation Tracker, which covers nearly 200 countries over the past quarter century.
Sincerely,
