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The rest of the world is playing checkers. Trump is playing fortnight. The president backed down from his threat to wipe out a civilization and announced a ceasefire and peace-talk process that would take place over his favorite period of time: two weeks. The news had many shouting Trump’s second-term nickname: TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out). Call me pro TACO. I have been in favor of most de-escalations since Trump de-escalated down the Trump Tower escalator and into the White House. The public markets seem to be sharing in my sigh of relief. If this precarious ceasefire holds, the big question will be whether Trump achieved anything by escalating in the first place. David Sanger in the NYT (Gift Article): “Without question, it was a down-to-the-wire tactical victory, one that should, at least temporarily, get oil, fertilizer and helium flowing again through the Strait of Hormuz, and calm markets that feared a global energy shock would lead to a global recession. But it resolved none of the fundamental issues that led to the war. It leaves a theocratic government, backed by the vicious Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in charge of a cowed population that has been pummeled by missiles and bombs, and finds itself still under the thumb of a familiar regime, even if under new management. It leaves Iran’s nuclear stockpile in place, including the 970 pounds of near-bomb-grade material that was, in theory, the casus belli of this war.”
+ How Trump went from threatening Iran’s annihilation to agreeing to a two-week ceasefire in a day. Well, it sure wasn’t because of any major concessions made by Iran. Iran Releases 10 Points It Says Are Basis for Cease-fire Talks. “Iran released its version of the proposal the morning after the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week cease-fire, and calls for American troops to leave the region, reasserts Iran’s control over the strategic Strait of Hormuz and maintains Iran’s right to nuclear enrichment.” (Iran is suggesting that they will charge $2 million per vessel that travels through the Strait.) Hegseth said Iran “begged” for a ceasefire, but these deal points sure don’t sound like total surrender. (FWIW, Trump called this ten point plan fraudulent and explained he is dealing with another set of points: “These are the POINTS that are the basis on which we agreed to a CEASEFIRE. It is something that is reasonable, and can easily be dispensed with.”)
+ Who could have predicted things would play out like this? Lots of people, including many inside the administration. And, as is always the case when things don’t go well, they’re more than happy to leak their opinions. “When Mr. Trump joined the meeting, Mr. Ratcliffe briefed him on the assessment. The C.I.A. director used one word to describe the Israeli prime minister’s regime change scenarios: ‘farcical.’ John Ratcliffe, the C.I.A. director, cautioned against considering regime change an achievable objective in a Situation Room meeting the next day. At that point, Mr. Rubio cut in. ‘In other words, it’s bullshit,’ he said.” NYT (Gift Article): How Trump Took the U.S. to War With Iran.
+ Bibi, not ceasing: At least 254 killed after Israel hits Lebanon with massive wave of airstrikes.
+ For now, the Strait traffic is halted, Iran is still apparently attacking its neighbors, and the warring parties are disagreeing about what they agreed to ahead of the ceasefire. Here’s the latest from the NYT, NBC, and The Guardian.
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War: What Was It Good For?
However the peace negotiations play out, it’s hard to imagine America’s evolving place in the world will be better off than it was a couple months ago (when it was already suffering). The Atlantic (Gift Article): A New Geopolitical Reality Is Here. “The war has exposed the contradictions of the Trump administration’s geopolitical worldview. Under this president, the United States has rewarded Russia, ignored China, punished Europe, and abandoned its Asian allies and partners to an economic crisis that it helped set in motion.” (Is pulling out of NATO next?)
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Restraint Constraint
“The good news is that Anthropic discovered in the process of developing Claude Mythos that the A.I. could not only write software code more easily and with greater complexity than any model currently available, but as a byproduct of that capability, it could also find vulnerabilities in virtually all of the world’s most popular software systems more easily than before. The bad news is that if this tool falls into the hands of bad actors, they could hack pretty much every major software system in the world, including all those made by the companies in the consortium.” Tom Friedman: Anthropic’s Restraint Is a Terrifying Warning Sign.
+ Anthropic may have gotten to this point first. They won’t be the last. Casey Newton explains why Anthropic’s new model has cybersecurity experts rattled. “One of the world’s three frontier labs has now created a model it says is too dangerous to release to the general public. These dangers emerged not from any specialized cyber training but from the same general improvements that every other lab is currently pursuing. As a result, models with similar capabilities may soon be accessible to criminals, hackers, and nation states — or even more broadly via open source models.”
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This Apple Never Left the Tree
“In 1976, Chris Espinosa rode his Puch moped a mile and a half every Wednesday afternoon, parked it and went to work. Just 14 years old, he still had to go to school and didn’t have a driver’s license. But his employer, Apple Computer, had customers who wanted to try its earliest computer, and Mr. Espinosa was responsible for demonstrating it. Mr. Espinosa’s job has changed many times in the 50 years since. But he still works for Apple.” One of Apple’s First Employees Looks Back at 50 Years.
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Extra, Extra
Crypt Script: “Bitcoin’s creator has hidden behind the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto for 17 years. But a trail of clues buried deep in crypto lore led to a 55-year-old computer scientist named Adam Back.” John Carreyrou in the NYT (Gift Article): My Quest to Solve Bitcoin’s Great Mystery. (I still think Bitcoin’s greatest mystery is: what is it good for?)
+ Moon Shots: Here are some more excellent photos from the Artemis II crew. (If these go viral on Instagram, everyone’s gonna want to visit the far side of the moon.) And Kottke’s got you covered if you need some Stunning Artemis II Phone Wallpapers. (It’s gonna take a lot more than a lunar joy ride to get my beagles off my lock screen...)
+ Plea Change: Rex Heuermann admits to killing 8 women in Gilgo Beach serial killings.
+ Ketamine Time: “She also said she had sold ketamine to Cody McLaury, a 33-year-old who died in 2019 shortly after purchasing the drugs, as well as Perry, and continued dealing after learning of their deaths.” ‘Ketamine Queen’ sentenced